A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 the convection near CR and the QCs is giving us a nice look at the northern extent of the threat into IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 the infamous 25 minutes of filtered sun of 6/22/15 never forget Haha it's best we can get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Maybe next time the other red tagger that heavily downed the tweet won't be so foolish, but given his history...I doubt it. Lol, no kidding. Must actually think he is the nane he goes by. I have yet to see any sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 79/73 with only a few minutes of filtered sun earlier...very gusty SW/SSW winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 82/73 at Gary with a south wind gusting to 31mph. I think potential is still there even with the overcast given the kinematics of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 20z obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 20z obsConsiderable backing across east-central Iowa and adjacent far western Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SPC stays with ENH at 20Z... Another 2015 big time synoptic scale let down due to festering crapvection and an MCS. ..SUMMARY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF INTENSE...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDWEST AND A PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..UPPER MIDWEST AREA THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE FROM IA INTO NRN MO WHERE A WARM EML HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SEWD. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...BUT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH TO AN MCS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING. ..ERN MN THROUGH NRN WI REF SWOMCD 1121 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Crapvection looks to win again, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Crapvection looks to win again, unfortunately. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Considerable backing across east-central Iowa and adjacent far western Illinois. very, very local backing... three obs show good backing... the rest are SSW/SW and a few are southerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Enhanced area trimmed dramatically, now only in parts of IA/IL/IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Michigan dropped from the Enhanced, even with some of the better instability and shear. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Enhanced area trimmed dramatically, now only in parts of IA/IL/IN Basically the I-80 corridor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Michigan dropped from the Enhanced, even with some of the better instability and shear. Interesting... Yet another time waste tracking this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Enhanced area trimmed dramatically, now only in parts of IA/IL/IN enhanced almost gets as south as the I-72 corridor in IL now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just not the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yet another time waste tracking this event. Lmao this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 We could still have some isolated severe later tonight if the sun somes back out. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks reasonable given the issues with cloud debris. Good call to Quincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That stuff on the boundary is a bunch of disorganized junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 WW being considered for eastern MN from just south of the TC up to Duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 the big story will be training convection along already wet soils Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I can't even wrap my brain around why the left the ENH where they did. I would've cut it all out honestly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 82/73 at Gary with a south wind gusting to 31mph. I think potential is still there even with the overcast given the kinematics of this thing. Feel better with southward extent from I-80, but extreme NW IN is/will be in closer proximity to the more unstable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I hate Chicago severe weather.. I really, really hate Chicago severe weather. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I managed to get a little pea size hail from the last little cell that moved through CR. The first storms this afternoon dropped large hail(1.5-2.5") a few miles north of me and this last cell dropped medium hail (up to 1") a mile or two south of me. I picked up 0.88" of rain. The continous backbuilding of cells along the outflow boundary has kept us in the 70s all day. We may be done with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 The MCS completely screwed up the mass fields, now the low isn't forecast to get under 1000mb until well after midnight. Up until this afternoon the models were still consistently dropping it to around 995mb some even lower. Without the pressure falls that were forecast the wind field isn't able to respond thus lowering the shear. Needless to say this is the biggest bust of the year thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Even then not terribly on board with the idea of strong convection developing in SE IA... Almost all convection to this point has been entirely junky and has gotten nowhere close to becoming surface based, lots of cloud cover across the area now due to crapvection as well. HRRR develops solid convection in the next few hours, and given strong/extreme instability and strong shear could still seem some pretty intense storms if they develop... with at least very large hail and destructive winds, and a few tornadoes, so will see soon what is to come of this. Have little faith in the HRRR btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 18z NAM still hangs on to the idea of a pretty potent squall line developing from Michigan into Northern Illinois/Eastern Iowa and Northern Missouri and moving Southeast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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