geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 New MD for Nrn IN, Nrn OH, Srn lower MI: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0209 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHERN OH/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 221909Z - 222045ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY ACROSS PARTS OFNORTHEAST INDIANA/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO NORTHERN OH...AND POSEA RISK FOR MOSTLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDSFOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED ACROSS FARSOUTHERN LOWER MI AND ADJACENT NORTHERN INDIANA AS OF 1845Z. THISACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV/EARLIERMCS ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MI AND RELATEDSOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD-EXTENDING OUTFLOW. THE PRECEDING AIR MASS ACROSSNORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN OH NEAR/SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT HASBECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED COINCIDENT WITH SURFACEDEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTHE SHORTER-TERM REGARDING THE OVERALL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THESEVERE RISK...BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK SEEMS PROBABLEAND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLEWATCH...GUYER/GOSS.. 06/22/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Light rain, gusty winds, 70 degrees under full clouds in DKB. Punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 86/75 at PIA and 83/76 at IKK -> just a tad muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrettenBailey Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 News Story now for storm in Portland: http://woodtv.com/2015/06/22/portland-goodwill-roof-collapses-people-trapped-inside/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 cloud tops warming and lightning fizzling out on the eastern iowa stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Line has really reintensified over Michigan in the last half hour. If this happens to be our only shot today, then I will be content, even if the potential wasn't maximized. Almost every SVR warning has "tornado possible" on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 i don't think eastern wi is out of it yet, temps quickly rebounding with sun, they look to have a couple hours of heating to go along with the steep mid level lapse rates coming in aiding in building instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Iowa convection has really weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Almost every SVR warning has "tornado possible" on it. I despise that wording, especially if there is a noticeable signature on radar. Its a big gamble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 cloud tops warming and lightning fizzling out on the eastern iowa stuff The question is how quickly the clouds associated with it start to dissipate, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just had a 52 mph gust under the light shower I am under. Wind screaming in from the SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 With it being 230 CDT, it's basically go time now if you haven't seen heating yet in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 With it being 230 CDT, it's basically go time now if you haven't seen heating yet in those areas. No it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just had a 52 mph gust under the light shower I am under. Wind screaming in from the SSW this is pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The question is how quickly the clouds associated with it start to dissipate, if at all. The writing has been on the wall all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The writing has been on the wall all day. i was relatively optimistic until mid-morning when Iowa decided to fester away until mid-afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The latest mesoanalysis shows upwards of 700 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 80/73 here in Northbrook, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 With it being 230 CDT, it's basically go time now if you haven't seen heating yet in those areas. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The question is how quickly the clouds associated with it start to dissipate, if at all. yeah....some damage done with the shield locally...i see no problem recouping a few degrees once the shield burns out...storms were always modeled to go through 00Z and beyond anyways...I don't see all the fuss...but that's just me the only difference I see at this juncture (at least in terms of N IL) is that storms will intensify slower instead of explosively (as had been modeled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 86/75 at PIA and 83/76 at IKK -> just a tad muggy. yeah, just a tad. Miserable out and no sun all day. In other news, TWC has Chicago at a 5 on the TOR CON, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The writing has been on the wall all day.A certain tweet about the HRRR showing a cold pool last night was largely discounted. It's important to always consider possible red flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm in the storm west of Coldwater MI and its trying to devlop something. Winds gusting to 51 with rotation trying to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 lol For NE IL, especially with the remains of IA convection, this could be a definite issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The writing has been on the wall all day. What's your best guess on the threat for LOT? Nothing or south section? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Rotation in all of the storms in the line in SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Winds really picked up here.... And man, is it muggy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The latest mesoanalysis shows upwards of 700 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. Impressive. Over Lake Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Impressive growth south of Toledo. Went from 0 to 30,000 feet in 30 minutes Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 GRR thinks there area will have no problem quickly rebounding this afternoon for round 2 after 9pm per lastest discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.