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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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How bad do you think this NE wind will hurt me? Creeped up to 73 now with some breaks in the clouds.

Looks like the boundary is around Silver Lake.

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=SLVN3&time=GMT

Pushing NE of Lake Winnisquam though...keep the faith.

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=LKWN3&time=GMT

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How bad do you think this NE wind will hurt me?  Creeped up to 73 now with some breaks in the clouds.

 

It's really not the NE wind that hurts you, in fact it would be great if you had completely destabilized. But since the front wedged in south of you, what is hurting  you (and the rest of NH) is that dry air moving in aloft. It's not allowing robust updrafts to form thanks to dry air entrainment. We need a little more forcing to potentially pump these updrafts up.

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453pm MSD

comments on mixed mode

may see supercells splitting off

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CT/RI/MASS INTO NH/SOUTHERN MAINE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 345...

VALID 232053Z - 232230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 345 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPREAD
EASTWARD/INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CT/RI/MASS INTO NH/SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS INCLUDES
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ASIDE FROM DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL. TORNADO WATCH 345 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

DISCUSSION...A MIXED-MODE OF RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING
STORMS...INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED
LINEAR SEGMENTS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AS THEY
SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS CT/MASS/RI AND THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY AS OF 430 PM EDT/2030Z. THE AIR MASS NEAR/EAST OF A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW-AIDED
WARM FRONT ACROSS NH/EXTREME NORTHEAST MASS AND SOUTHWEST
NH...CONTINUES TO STEADILY DESTABILIZE WITH 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 1500+
J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL SCENARIO WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND FAST-MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD. WHILE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE TENDED TO VEER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM BOSTON
SUPPORTIVE OF NEARLY 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT
CONCERNS...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND PERHAPS ESPECIALLY ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW/WARM FRONTAL VICINITY WHERE SHEAR/VORTICITY
IS MAXIMIZED.

..GUYER.. 06/23/2015


ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 43797193 44057124 43187011 41447060 41277186 41517270
42107301 43797193 

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