HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I guess there was a second EF0 right near me in Westminster I was at a place in Hubbardston (the lodge of the old ski hill) that has some big hilly views, and we got a sudden burst of wind and rain that seemed semi tornadic. I wonder if it was the same cell. This was around 7:30 or so. I almost shot video... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201506260144-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 You can thank a friend of mine for that. He reported that to BOX per video he came in contact with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 You can thank a friend of mine for that. He reported that to BOX per video he came in contact with. nice, apparently Jeffafa's friend has video of the Wareham one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 nice, apparently Jeffafa's friend has video of the Wareham one too Wareham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I guess there was a second EF0 right near me in Westminster I was at a place in Hubbardston (the lodge of the old ski hill) that has some big hilly views, and we got a sudden burst of wind and rain that seemed semi tornadic. I wonder if it was the same cell. This was around 7:30 or so. I almost shot video... I saw the wall cloud and potentially the tornado. Naturally I decided to hike Watatic that night for awesome pictures of that storm and the sun set. Right before the last scramble to the top I look through the trees and see an obvious lowering extending from the wall cloud. It looked classic. It honestly looked like it was just above the tree tops but I figured it was scud. Instead of stopping to get a picture I tried to run to the top and get to a better vantage point. By that time the south side was obscured by rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I can't figure out how to post the video, but I have the video of the tornado. It's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I can't figure out how to post the video, but I have the video of the tornado. It's legit. open a you tube account and upload it then link the vid, easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wareham? Lol wherever Bob works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Lol wherever Bob works Wrentham, some ham town you got a million of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I can't figure out how to post the video, but I have the video of the tornado. It's legit. Yup that video you texted was the real deal. How did that storm look on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Yup that video you texted was the real deal. How did that storm look on radar? A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 7:24 PM EDT OFF OF WEST PRINCETON ROAD NEAR WACHUSETT MOUNTAIN. IT WAS ONLY ON THE GROUND FOR 2 MINS...DAMAGING A DOZEN TREES AND SHEARING OFF SEVERAL TREE TOPS. THIS DAMAGE AS WELL AS AN EYEWITNESS ACCOUNT...IS SUPPORTED BY THE RADAR WHICH DID SHOW EVIDENCE OF ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KBOX∏=vel1&bkgr=black&endDate=20150624&endTime=1&duration=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Scooter, can you put it on your FB account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Scooter, can you put it on your FB account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Thanks Scoots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 legit stuff, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Whine minster can't whine no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Whine minster can't whine no more.Lol, I didn't get anything like that here.....not even a gust of wind! That's right down the road too. I'll have to check it out and take some pics.Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Dealing with convection is very, very challenging, especially around these parts. In the end it pretty much always just comes down to nowcasting and mesoscale features. You can poor over all the model guidance and data leading up to the day but ultimately nothing is more important than how things evolve from the AM on...especially when you have concerns about cloud cover, MCS leftovers, etc. It's great when the models are spitting out favorable numbers and parameters, and other factors but that's just a little piece of the puzzle. I mean that basically describes convective forecasting everywhere in the country. It just seems like we're at the mercy of mesoscale whims because there are so many more limiting factors in New England than areas to our west. But every forecast location has its share of forecast challenges with convection. My time in Iowa taught me all about cap busts and morning MCSs ruining afternoon threat. It's just the nature of convection, you can't accurately predict it with much more than 24 hours lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I don't recognize those kinds of trees. Not to mention the bare branches at the left, which could suggest this photo was taken in early spring or just a dead tree. Unless that boat happens to be jacked up on stilts I'm suspect of that picture too. Looks a bit more waterspout than tornado to me. I would expect it to visually look more like the video Scott posted than anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Unless that boat happens to be jacked up on stilts I'm suspect of that picture too. Looks a bit more waterspout than tornado to me. I would expect it to visually look more like the video Scott posted than anything like this. Yeah, not seeing many bodies of water in Attleboro that would require a sailboat of that size. I'm thinking those trees are the top of a clump of Australian pines, which grow only in south Florida and other tropical areas: http://www.ci.marathon.fl.us/files/2012/11/invasive.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 I mean that basically describes convective forecasting everywhere in the country. It just seems like we're at the mercy of mesoscale whims because there are so many more limiting factors in New England than areas to our west. But every forecast location has its share of forecast challenges with convection. My time in Iowa taught me all about cap busts and morning MCSs ruining afternoon threat. It's just the nature of convection, you can't accurately predict it with much more than 24 hours lead time. When it comes to morning MCS's and their influence on afternoon potential I know if they are large enough they can provide subsidence on the backside which can be extremely difficult to overcome but when it comes to factors such as limiting instability how do you really judge if this will be the case or not? For example, on Tuesday it seemed like we rebounded pretty well in terms of instability...now I know we didn't get the 2500-3500 J/KG of MLcape values that were projected at times but the culprit here I think was the lack of > 7 C/KM lapse rates across the region. Very difficult to get MLcapes above 2500-3000 w/o the presence of steep lapse rates. But still cape values were as high as 1500-2000 which I thought was enough given shear values. However, looking back at the event was this really a bust? A portion of southern CT got crushed...90-95 mph straight-line winds are about as strong as you'll see here and portions of RI/interior NE MA and the Cape were crushed as well. Plus there were two confirmed tornadoes, albeit only EF-0. Also, I've always been intrigued on capping situations, especially out west. I know many factors determine whether the cap will break including degree of lift, whether you have colder air working in aloft to erode the cap or lessen it, or strong height falls but was there ever like a threshold you encountered which made it nearly impossible for convection to go up? I always felt like once you started nearing a 10C cap that was really pushing it for any convection (speaking for out west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 When it comes to morning MCS's and their influence on afternoon potential I know if they are large enough they can provide subsidence on the backside which can be extremely difficult to overcome but when it comes to factors such as limiting instability how do you really judge if this will be the case or not? For example, on Tuesday it seemed like we rebounded pretty well in terms of instability...now I know we didn't get the 2500-3500 J/KG of MLcape values that were projected at times but the culprit here I think was the lack of > 7 C/KM lapse rates across the region. Very difficult to get MLcapes above 2500-3000 w/o the presence of steep lapse rates. But still cape values were as high as 1500-2000 which I thought was enough given shear values. However, looking back at the event was this really a bust? A portion of southern CT got crushed...90-95 mph straight-line winds are about as strong as you'll see here and portions of RI/interior NE MA and the Cape were crushed as well. Plus there were two confirmed tornadoes, albeit only EF-0. Also, I've always been intrigued on capping situations, especially out west. I know many factors determine whether the cap will break including degree of lift, whether you have colder air working in aloft to erode the cap or lessen it, or strong height falls but was there ever like a threshold you encountered which made it nearly impossible for convection to go up? I always felt like once you started nearing a 10C cap that was really pushing it for any convection (speaking for out west) Pretty sure our rule of thumb was +7 at 700 and you needed to start worrying about capping issues. However, there really was no limit to temperature which prohibits convection given enough forcing to overcome it. I was always told about Parkersburg (happened just before I arrived), which happened to have a 700 mb temp of exactly +7. It was a nuclear cap (see sounding), but a gravity wave also happened to be rippling through the state and ignited a few isolated supercells which went to town given the environment in place. As for our Tuesday event, the MCS was really the feature that shunted the better lapse rates south, just skirting south coastal areas. Had it not been there, advective processes would've carried that well into New England, and it probably would've been 6/1/11 all over again. I know up this was we suffered from a lack of truly robust updrafts. They fought against the dry air moving in aloft, and remained mostly small and/or skinny. Without that deep updraft we had a hard time getting the Winnipesaukee funnel clouds to really tighten up enough to reach the ground. The siggy severe remained tied to the steepest lapse rates, as it usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 That is one helluva sounding...I mean holy crap. The degree of turning is just one of the things that sticks out. That makes perfect sense on Tuesday...at first I wasn't sure I was seeing how the MCS screwed things that much but your explanation makes total and complete sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 That is one helluva sounding...I mean holy crap. The degree of turning is just one of the things that sticks out. That makes perfect sense on Tuesday...at first I wasn't sure I was seeing how the MCS screwed things that much but your explanation makes total and complete sense. 85/80, 5600 CAPE even with that cap in place. +11.6 at 700 mb though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 As far as recovery goes, while it's nice to heat up the ground with clear skies, it's also important that the right conditions advect in aloft. The MCS effectively delays the lapse rates from moving in. In Iowa that could be the difference between a cap bust and not. Around here that is less of a problem, but can lead to weaker updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 My God What were the lapse rates with that? 8.5-9 C/Km? That's insane. Only thing that is really "lacking" is just magnitude of speed shear. Surprised though the LIFT is on;y -10.5 lol...thought maybe it would crack -12 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 As far as recovery goes, while it's nice to heat up the ground with clear skies, it's also important that the right conditions advect in aloft. The MCS effectively delays the lapse rates from moving in. In Iowa that could be the difference between a cap bust and not. Around here that is less of a problem, but can lead to weaker updrafts. This is another factor on the list of killers for us...it's really difficult here to get storms with tremendous updrafts...part of the reason why we don't really see many reports of golf ball hail or larger or wind gusts approaching or exceeding 60-65 mph. Our updrafts blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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