weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 forky had made mention in the general t'storm thread but I started a separate thread for this potential event. The GFS is advertising the potential for a rather significant severe event to occur across much of the Northeastern states Tuesday including areas such as PA, portions of NY and much of central and southern New England. One eye opening aspect of the modeled setup is the potential for an elevated mixed-layer plume to work up and over the 700mb ridge from the central/southern Plains and into the Ohio Valley and then eventually into the Northeast: As many are aware, one of the key ingredients in the higher end, more potent severe weather outbreaks is the presence of the elevated mixed-layer. For anyone who isn't familiar with elevated-mixed layers to explain them simply, they are very strong capping inversions located typically between about 750-800mb to 550-600mb. Below the capping inversion extreme instability is able to develop, especially if the low-level airmass is very moist and very warm. The inversion also prevents drier air from the mid-levels mixing down and also prevents junk convection from firing. The second eye opening aspect being modeled is a rather impressive piece of s/w energy moving through at 500mb for late June. One potential downfall, however, is the s/w could be a tad too far north. Another 150 miles or so further south and we would see much stronger height falls, along with even stronger forcing. While this is not looking like a classic NW flow aloft, the flow is certainly westerly at 500mb and quite strong as well with the GFS advertising 50-60 knots working in during the morning hours on Tuesday. With the low level flow potentially being more southwesterly this could yield large helicity values. It's a bit too early to get into further specifics and details, however, if other guidance is in line with the GFS and we continue to at least see EML advection being modeled and the s/w being as potent we could be looking at certainly the biggest event of the season (which won't be hard to do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 good luck on Tuesday, I hope for you there is some wild weather close by which you can chase. youre as passionate about severe as I am about winter weather if not more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 good luck on Tuesday, I hope for you there is some wild weather close by which you can chase. youre as passionate about severe as I am about winter weather if not more so. Unfortunately I have to work Tuesday but the 0z GFS was pretty impressive looking. Will be checking the GFS in an hour or so and seeing if that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 HOLY POOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 3 HR before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 HOLY POOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3 HR before You're welcome for pointing this out to you. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 You're welcome for pointing this out to you. lol. Thank you for waking me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=765&sounding.y=224&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=78¶meter=SHRM&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Just wanted to point this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=765&sounding.y=224&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=78¶meter=SHRM&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Just wanted to point this out. Impressive...absolutely impressive. Very step lapse rates, still some semblance of an EML, the shear...my God the shear...that is scary. The shear in the lowest few km, both speed and directional shear is through the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Here is a point-and-click right around BDL from the 12z NAM >3,000 Cape with helicity at 487...are you serious??? LI -8, SI -6, TT 534, KI 39, SW at 531 (can't recall seeing that high of a # before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 SPC SREF already has a SIG TOR area outlined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 I still would like to see the s/w track further south, like south of the Canadien border as this would give us much better height falls and even stronger forcing. We'll see. This could also end up being a late show and perhaps even a severe threat into the early overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Looks impressive now guess we will have to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 We Spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Very impressive look currently. I think we will have to wait a bit to see how upstream convection Sunday and Monday shakes out. This is certainly worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Very impressive look currently. I think we will have to wait a bit to see how upstream convection Sunday and Monday shakes out. This is certainly worth watching. I just wish that s/w was tracking further south from it's current position. Obviously time for that to change but not holding my breath. We still have some height falls but the strongest remain closer to the US/Canadien border. However, perhaps jet regions will help...and the jet is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Good luck wiz and company! Looks potent for you up there. Hopefully Mid-Atl can cash in this afternoon/tonight so we don't have to try to rob you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I just wish that s/w was tracking further south from it's current position. Obviously time for that to change but not holding my breath. We still have some height falls but the strongest remain closer to the US/Canadien border. However, perhaps jet regions will help...and the jet is very strong. hope you get some excitement but IDK, wagons north it sems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 hope you get some excitement but IDK, wagons north it sems given s/w track I would agree...probably same general area as 6/1/2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Good luck wiz and company! Looks potent for you up there. Hopefully Mid-Atl can cash in this afternoon/tonight so we don't have to try to rob you guys looks decent down that way for tonight! good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 given s/w track I would agree...probably same general area as 6/1/2011. SNH Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 SNH Maine? probably eastern NY, central/northern MA and into portions of VT/NH/ME. However, though we can't rule out south of the Pike into northern CT b/c there are still height falls present and the cap strength (at least as projected now) is only 1C or so which isn't terribly strong and the height falls would be enough to overcome but we'll see. The more potent stuff may be closer to the s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yeah this is region wide..even down to NYC...big potential event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Bigger than any other we've ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Yes please given s/w track I would agree...probably same general area as 6/1/2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 How many hot dogs will be served? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Hoping to see my third tornado would be nice if that was only a few days away weenie me all you want lol How many hot dogs will be served? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Weatherwiz, fantastic post. Stuff like this is why I visit American Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 Hoping to see my third tornado would be nice if that was only a few days away weenie me all you want lol That was a Wiz joke. Ask him what he did when a borderline EF4 was tearing houses away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 Weatherwiz, fantastic post. Stuff like this is why I visit American Weather. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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