Guvna Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Doesn't even seem like any Boston mets are on board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 How are LCLs looking tomorrow? (Also, where do you guys locate said info? Thanks.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Getting all warm and tingly seeing parts of eastern Iowa gusting to 93 mph this morning. High end severe system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 And honestly, with all due respect, who cares what SPC has or doesn't have. That likes caring what WPC has in the winter for snow. Let the local people who know the climo try to figure it out. Yeah - I don't really but there are a ton of forecasters around here who basically let SPC handle all their convection forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 How are LCLs looking tomorrow? (Also, where do you guys locate said info? Thanks.) Depends on where you are. They don't have a super-low look to me and I'm also noticing across SNE that 0-3km CAPE is pretty meager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 How are LCLs looking tomorrow? (Also, where do you guys locate said info? Thanks.) http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=06&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00¶meter=HGT&level=LEVEL_OF_ADIABATIC_CONDENSATION_FROM_SFC&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Getting all warm and tingly seeing parts of eastern Iowa gusting to 93 mph this morning. High end severe system. All eyes turn to Michigan later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Congrats Dendrite? NAM 4km forecast satellite product showing clearing across NH in time for convection behind the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Congrats Dendrite? NAM 4km forecast satellite product showing clearing across NH in time for convection behind the warm front. nam4kmUS_prec_irsat_036.gif I like just north of the ma border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 NNE potential with this one? Not paying attention too closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I like just north of the ma border Yeah. I am a fan of my Nashua location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I like just north of the ma border New NAM rolling, but it does look like some sort of triple point like feature is possible in or near our CWA tomorrow. Tornado/es wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 NNE potential with this one? Not paying attention too closely. More rain for the parched grounds of northern VT. Could be a pretty nice dump with the morning MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Mostly a sne threat it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just call in sick dude and get your friend to chase. You work like a million jobs and are going to school in September anyway. What's one more mundane day at work compared to chasing tornadoes? Last time you decided to score a high school baseball game instead of seeing an EF3. I would think you learned a lesson but now you will miss a major, rare outbreak again. I'm going to ask. But I've only been working here a couple months and I've only called out of work twice in my life. Hate asking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 More rain for the parched grounds of northern VT. Could be a pretty nice dump with the morning MCS. Mansfield may have a shot at wettest June on record. Yesterday's 4pm report was another 2.02" putting the total near 13", plus another 0.75" last night and today. Record is around 15.25". But no severe it sounds like, just rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Depends on where you are. They don't have a super-low look to me and I'm also noticing across SNE that 0-3km CAPE is pretty meager. In all honesty I don't really like the chances down this way. I think this is central NE and north type event but I guess we'll see how things shape up in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Mostly a sne threat it seems Isn't it always a mostly SNE threat with you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 12z NAM really cut back on CAPE for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 12z NAM really cut back on CAPE for SNE ML lapse rates suck on the 12z run....BDL with a 5.7 for 500-700 lapse rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 In all honesty I don't really like the chances down this way. I think this is central NE and north type event but I guess we'll see how things shape up in the AM You are going for areas that a have greater chance of seeing more morning convection or debris, in my opinion. The best shear and forcing, is not always the optimal area for the most severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The NAM is also a lot slower with the line further South into the Mid-Atlantic. 3500 J/KG SBCAPE into NYC ahead of the line with 2000-3500 J/KG in patches from VA all the way up into Maine. The remnant MCS over Iowa this morning basically dumps all across Upstate NY, VT, NH and then into Maine killing the severe threat for later, although there could certainly be some isolated severe just about everywhere tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ML lapse rates suck on the 12z run....BDL with a 5.7 for 500-700 lapse rate. Definitely the worst look of the models. It's funny that the higher res versions develop robust convection anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ML lapse rates suck on the 12z run....BDL with a 5.7 for 500-700 lapse rate. Yeah that morning convection that the NAM blows through New England is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 ML lapse rates suck on the 12z run....BDL with a 5.7 for 500-700 lapse rate. The remnant EML plume is going over PA/NJ/NYC south area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'm going to ask. But I've only been working here a couple months and I've only called out of work twice in my life. Hate asking If you haven't called out a lot, then you'll have no trouble. I missed 8 days of school last year and was re-hired no problem. Sometimes it's better to just definitively say you're sick instead of asking permission. Don't feel guilty, this is your passion, not scoring ballgames or unloading boxes or posting Craigslist ads. Severe storms and tornadoes happen once every 3-4 years in SNE so it is a rare event. As you say, best threat for TOR is like ALB to CAR. Should be some interesting potential where the Hudson and Mohawk Rivers converge as well as central Maine just south of Katahdin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 In all honesty I don't really like the chances down this way. I think this is central NE and north type event but I guess we'll see how things shape up in the AM I think the farther north you are the more you'll have to deal with morning crap. I actually like the look to the south with plenty of CAPE and strong shear remaining. There's enough forcing to erode any CIN so I'm not really too concerned about that barring a really sizable period of morning convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yeah that morning convection that the NAM blows through New England is the issue. It's really widespread, with simulated reflectivity all the way to the South Coast. Oddly enough, despite that it still develops a great environment in the wake of it. Plenty of CAPE, shear, and helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I like just north of the ma border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's really widespread, with simulated reflectivity all the way to the South Coast. Oddly enough, despite that it still develops a great environment in the wake of it. Plenty of CAPE, shear, and helicity. Yup. It screws up those steep mid level lapse rates (probably through latent heat release?) but still keeps things pretty juicy in terms of CAPE/shear by afternoon. Now, if the NAM is wrong about that morning convection then the final solution is probably more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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