Cyclone-68 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 For a weather layman as I consider myself are there any particular things we the layperson should be looking for whether it's upstream in Michigan tonight or SNE tomorrow morning to watch for that might make Tuesday a "special" day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Great AFD from Hayden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 For a weather layman as I consider myself are there any particular things we the layperson should be looking for whether it's upstream in Michigan tonight or SNE tomorrow morning to watch for that might make Tuesday a "special" day? Silly answer......but if the sun comes out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This are is where I'm watching for something higher end tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 will be in Nashua in the PM tomorrow, looking forward to some loud storms tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 This are is where I'm watching for something higher end tomorrow. 2015-06-22_15-49-21.png I'm looking forward to seeing how the SSEO performs. It's sort of a shut out down this way though - keeps the good stuff to the north and really pegs New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Why is NH being favored over SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Why is NH being favored over SNE? Better low level shear. Also - low level CAPE is pretty uninspiring south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Why is NH being favored over SNE? The low level helicity looks better the further north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Better low level shear. Also - low level CAPE is pretty uninspiring south of the Pike.Then why all the concern and excitement if south of pike doesn't have anything going for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Ossipee redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I was under the assumption this had the potential to produce sig severe in most of SNE away from coast. Now it's shifted to CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I was under the assumption this had the potential to produce sig severe in most of SNE away from coast. Now it's shifted to CNE Listen more. Post less. No one is taking away your severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Listen more. Post less. No one is taking away your severe weather. That silly comment didn't answer my question. The talk here had always been SNE then all of a sudden it shifted to CNE as the area to get hit . I guess I just thought this favored SNE getting severe based on what I was reading from mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I was under the assumption this had the potential to produce sig severe in most of SNE away from coast. Now it's shifted to CNE Listen more. Post less. No one is taking away your severe weather. It's almost as if he didn't read any posts since this morning. lol I think it was mentioned like 10 times how good the helicity was in CNE just south of the warm front. CAPE may be better in SNE if we can avoid any debris contamination from the MCS....but SNE may be favored for more clusters and straight line wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Did anyone happen to check updraft helicity projections from the NAM NCEP convective forecasting page? I would but still at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I didn't mean tors. I mean severe overall. Maybe you guys are strictly talking best area for a Tor. I was talking high end severe in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's almost as if he didn't read any posts since this morning. lol I think it was mentioned like 10 times how good the helicity was in CNE just south of the warm front. CAPE may be better in SNE if we can avoid any debris contamination from the MCS....but SNE may be favored for more clusters and straight line wind. Yeah it's like talking to a wall. Sure there could be sig svr in SNE but along the warm front/near triple point is where you want to be for spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I didn't mean tors. I mean severe overall. Maybe you guys are strictly talking best area for a Tor. I was talking high end severe in general Usually the best spot for tornadoes is the best spot for high end severe. Any discrete supercells are more easily sustained with good helicity. This doesn't mean SNE isn't in a decent spot for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 18z 4k NAM is spitting out 4000-4500 J/KG of SBCAPE ahead of the line The latest look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 The 18z 4k NAM is spitting out 4000-4500 J/KG of SBCAPE ahead of the line The latest look What's it have for 2M temps and dews? Could be too high or it has very steep lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like I should plan on one F2 TOR tomorrow, lollies to three? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 What's it have for 2M temps and dews? Could be too high or it has very steep lapse rates Dews in the low 70's and 2M temps in the upper 80's with mid 90's towards NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Dews in the low 70's and 2M temps in the upper 80's with mid 90's towards NYC. Hmm I guess not completely unrealistic but will depend on cloud cover and timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 That silly comment didn't answer my question. The talk here had always been SNE then all of a sudden it shifted to CNE as the area to get hit . I guess I just thought this favored SNE getting severe based on what I was reading from metsSNH Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Hmm I guess not completely unrealistic but will depend on cloud cover and timing The NAM is defiantly a lot more focused on the NYC area than New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 The NAM is defiantly a lot more focused on the NYC area than New England. In terms of convection or instability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The NAM/4 km is busting big time right now in the Great Lakes, I'd really be leery of using it right now for tomorrow. Although I suppose if less things happen to the west, that opens up more potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 COnvection is really starting to blossom out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 COnvection is really starting to blossom out west. I wouldn't bet the farm but if I remember correctly, 5/31/2011 also saw Kate blossoming storms in the G/L region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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