weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looking at a few things this may actually be a Pike South event perhaps. Looking quite interesting across central MA on South. Maybe an area like this? Have to look more in depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 yeah Greenfield does allow us to virtually head in any direction we need. Going to be tough tomorrow b/c we have to keep safety a priority and there are a lot of locations that can be dangerous...especially with numerous trees around. G'field also has the benefit of a Dunkin' Donuts and a McDonald's if needed. I'm pretty sure that's tough to come by in Dave's hood. Sucks about the clouds. Could still get some much not-needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looking at a few things this may actually be a Pike South event perhaps. Looking quite interesting across central MA on South. Maybe an area like this? Have to look more in depth In that case, you can just hang out at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 G'field also has the benefit of a Dunkin' Donuts and a McDonald's if needed. I'm pretty sure that's tough to come by in Dave's hood. Sucks about the clouds. Could still get some much not-needed rain. The real issue might be more of what's west. That activity across NY/PA is moving pretty quickly. Not sure if it fizzles or not but that may be with the front itself but if that comes through that could completely kill things b/c of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The real issue might be more of what's west. That activity across NY/PA is moving pretty quickly. Not sure if it fizzles or not but that may be with the front itself but if that comes through that could completely kill things b/c of timing.That's going to create some cloud cover at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Looking at a few things this may actually be a Pike South event perhaps. Looking quite interesting across central MA on South. Maybe an area like this? Have to look more in depth Wiz, there is wonderful hilltop in Charlton called Dresser hill with a west facing panorama. Easy access off 84 and rt 20. Clear view to Monson and Brimfield and the 2011 june tornado went straight at it. You can see forever and easy parking. Great place for food up the street at the Clam box Rt 20 east off 84, right on Masonic hill rd, bear right onto 31 and you're there. I will be there. Good luck. Andrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sunny in Warwick, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 The 6z NAM looks pretty damn terrific across southern MA into northern CT. Gets steep lapse rates in along with moderate amounts of instability and pretty strong shear. In fact, it has shear up close to 35 m/s with helicity approaching 300 which is very significant. The GFS, on the other hand, is much faster with everything and we never realize much instability. The HRRR is also faster with timing showing a line of something moving through by 17z. The HRRR does develop 1500-2000 Cape and has decent SIG TOR numbers but this timing may be a little too early. It really all depends on just how much instability we have in place then. But 1500-2000 would be pretty decent. I think we're cutting it very close though timing wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Some of the hi res guidance just has this being an earlier show like entering W SNE around 12:00 and ripping thru pike south between 12:30-2:30..and then another round late day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 That's going to create some cloud cover at least. Hopefully some of the clouds erode away a bit. It is great to see though mlvl lapse rates are increasing ahead of the activity to near 7 C/KM. If we can get those in here and keep them overhead for a few hours at least and while activity is coming that would be a boost for some higher instability. Wiz, there is wonderful hilltop in Charlton called Dresser hill with a west facing panorama. Easy access off 84 and rt 20. Clear view to Monson and Brimfield and the 2011 june tornado went straight at it. You can see forever and easy parking. Great place for food up the street at the Clam box Rt 20 east off 84, right on Masonic hill rd, bear right onto 31 and you're there. I will be there. Good luck. Andrew Thanks! If we head up that way I'll keep this in mind...sounds like a great place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Hopefully some of the clouds erode away a bit. It is great to see though mlvl lapse rates are increasing ahead of the activity to near 7 C/KM. If we can get those in here and keep them overhead for a few hours at least and while activity is coming that would be a boost for some higher instability. Thanks! If we head up that way I'll keep this in mind...sounds like a great place I agree with this, great views from dairy stand at dresser hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Seems like line of storms near Elmira would be in here by 12:30 -1:30. Too early to maximize peak heating and instability and too late to allow for a complete recovery. I think this may turn into a more scattered threat if this holds. Still opportunities for some. It has turned cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Seems like line of storms near Elmira would be in here by 12:30 -1:30. Too early to maximize peak heating and instability and too late to allow for a complete recovery. I think this may turn into a more scattered threat if this holds. Still opportunities for some. It has turned cloudy here. Yeah, I think it's going to mess everything up. Way too much cloud debris and poor timing. Not calling bust yet, but historically and recently just seems the hyped severe weather threats wind up underwhelming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 yeah Greenfield does allow us to virtually head in any direction we need. Going to be tough tomorrow b/c we have to keep safety a priority and there are a lot of locations that can be dangerous...especially with numerous trees around.LOL the chances of this busting are much higher than your getting hit by a dangerous tornado . You aren't chasing long track EF4s in the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 We need this MCS to really weaken and get out of the way by like noon. Seems to be weakening a bit on radar and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 LOL the chances of this busting are much higher than your getting hit by a dangerous tornado . You aren't chasing long track EF4s in the Plains. it's not just about tornadoes it's about driving with strong winds and trees coming down or trees in the road. It's probably more fine b/c it will be daylight but we had one case where it was just getting into evening in NW CT and the road we were on had trees down which were not easy to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 We need this MCS to really weaken and get out of the way by like noon. Seems to be weakening a bit on radar and satellite. cloud temps are warming but there is a ton of cloud debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Lots of sun here just south of Boston FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Couple cells just popped up in central mass...along a line North to South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Couple cells just popped up in central mass...along a line North to South. Along warm front and leading edge of steeper mid level lapse rates. Nice line south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Along and north of Rt.2 looks to be hanging in the clouds. Don't know if that'll kill our chances, I'm sure Wiz and others have a better sense of whether we can muster severe based on the other conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm not digging that MCS moving toward BGM. I think that could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'd be fine with some run of the mill tstorms. I know that would piss everyone off here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BOX-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The HRRR is also a train wreck for this afternoon with that MCS sucking the life out of the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm not digging that MCS moving toward BGM. I think that could be a problem.Hrrr says enjoy it because it's all you have.Edit: Ninja'd by you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 SNE--where severe threats go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm not digging that MCS moving toward BGM. I think that could be a problem. Need that to fall apart fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 High clouds down here in Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I would be fine with the current look if it weren't for all that convection in PA. That's going to hurt destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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