Dan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Check out the "hook" in central NY. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=ENX-N0Q-1-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 yeah that MCS is really worrying me...we've seen before those things kill our threats. writing about it in a blog post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I would be fine with the current look if it weren't for all that convection in PA. That's going to hurt destabilization. Yeah it needs to start fading away quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Many of us may dodge a BIG bullet this morning. The MCS is staying north and weakening, while the developing bow line in western NYS/PA will likely split off from the MCS and head ESE. Clouds even want to break for me here in Southeast NH.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Check out the "hook" in central NY. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=ENX-N0Q-1-48 MCV moving through NY now. Would be great for the afternoon in ME if we had some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yeah it needs to start fading away quickly Good news is cloud tops are warming quickly. Bad news is the HRRR back builds on the cold pool over PA and kind of robs us of the recovery of the air mass northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Many of us may dodge a BIG bullet this morning. The MCS is staying north and weakening, while the developing bow line in western NYS/PA will likely split off from the MCS and head ESE. Clouds even want to break for me here in Southeast NH.... Yup. The bailing and canceling is laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Good news is cloud tops are warming quickly. Bad news is the HRRR back builds on the cold pool over PA and kind of robs us of the recovery of the air mass northward. Yup. I kind of doubt the HRRR solution though. Tends to be too bullish reviving these dying MCSs around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Suns out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Yup. The bailing and canceling is laughable Meh, we cancel on the 1630z updates in my opinion. 13z is too early to call it dead, on the off chance that the MCS does rot its way into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Certainly alot of clouds upstream. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/mflash-vis.html Most of southern New England doesn't look too bad right now, most places partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Meh, we cancel on the 1630z updates in my opinion. 13z is too early to call it dead, on the off chance that the MCS does rot its way into New England. I think the developing convection west of KUNV is the bigger concern. That crap near BGM is falling apart pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sunny on my way from Taunton to Bridgewater.... However, I expect little to no storm action here, as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I think the developing convection west of KUNV is the bigger concern. That crap near BGM is falling apart pretty quickly. Absolutely, that's going to retard any significant warm frontal movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The breaks approaching Albany are encouraging for NW MA and SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The SSEO really like SW NH still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I feel like once we weaken this mcs and erode some high cloud cover south of nh border its game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 G'field also has the benefit of a Dunkin' Donuts and a McDonald's if needed. I'm pretty sure that's tough to come by in Dave's hood. Sucks about the clouds. Could still get some much not-needed rain. The breaks approaching Albany are encouraging for NW MA and SVT.Poet's Seat ftw locally watching storms. Just gotta steer clear of the lightning rod flagpole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Relax on canceling @EdValleeWx: MCS will barely have a drop of rain by the time it reaches New England. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 The SSEO really like SW NH still. It's this right hear which has me completely torn on where to go. I just have no clue. At least in 2011 if we could have gone I wanted to start at Bradley and just go north but this time really confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The SSEO really like SW NH still. Ugh, that 00z run was sooo good looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The problem isn't just the rain going away. You don't just erase 45,000ft cloud tops in 2-3 hrs. Debris high level clouds will be an issue. We may actually see a line with the main cold front early evening as well. Not necessarily a bad thing, but the timing of this weakening MCS seems sort of critical to widespread activity right now. Maybe it can refire south of pike, but not so sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's this right hear which has me completely torn on where to go. I just have no clue. At least in 2011 if we could have gone I wanted to start at Bradley and just go north but this time really confused Toss the guidance now and go with your gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The problem isn't just the rain going away. You don't just erase 45,000ft cloud tops in 2-3 hrs. Debris high level clouds will be an issue. We may actually see a line with the main cold front early evening as well. Not necessarily a bad thing, but the timing of this weakening MCS seems sort of critical to widespread activity right now. Maybe it can refire south of pike, but not so sure about that. Exactly. Oh well we'll see how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 The problem isn't just the rain going away. You don't just erase 45,000ft cloud tops in 2-3 hrs. Debris high level clouds will be an issue. We may actually see a line with the main cold front early evening as well. Not necessarily a bad thing, but the timing of this weakening MCS seems sort of critical to widespread activity right now. Maybe it can refire south of pike, but not so sure about that. Plus the rich moisture (check out theta-e obs right now) is south of that PA MCS. If it wasn't there the rich moisture would be somewhere across central NY now instead. Much easier to advect that into New England than all the way from the Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Perhaps a stupid question......but what should we be hoping for with surface temps to maximize the opportunity for something big? I'm not too concerned about what I have in my backyard--more interested to se what's nearby to the west. 63.2/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 72/66 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Toss the guidance now and go with your gut. Going with gut.......severe cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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