CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 For what it's worth, the SPC WRF develops an MCS but lifts it from MI into Ontario, really leaving much of New England in the clear. 0-1 km shear on the latest NAM now ripping 50 knots across central NH into ME. Siggy tornadoes a possibility, even on a duck fart type spin up with those shear profiles. Yeah it seems like the NAM is on its own with that widespread rain tomorrow morning. You can see the impact that has on lapse rates too when you go through the forecast soundings. Pretty intriguing setup. I really like having juicy dew points through 850mb so and not some BS lowest level moisture that mixes out when someone sneezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 For what it's worth, the SPC WRF develops an MCS but lifts it from MI into Ontario, really leaving much of New England in the clear. 0-1 km shear on the latest NAM now ripping 50 knots across central NH into ME. Siggy tornadoes a possibility, even on a duck fart type spin up with those shear profiles. Obscene helicity on the NAM up your way tomorrow, and pretty impressive in much of New England. Solid CAPE too. Eyes will be peeled for ACCAS. God, this better pan out or Wiz is gonna blow a fuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Is that remnant EML still in play, or has that washed out at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Is that remnant EML still in play, or has that washed out at this point? It's still there. Not a classic one but certainly a plume of steep mid level lapse rates nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's still there. Not a classic one but certainly a plume of steep mid level lapse rates nearby. Not timed perfectly, but I'd hit 7 C/km overhead any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Are there any discrete cells, though? A lot of times these set-ups yield more of a line or congealed mess of convection. Storm mode will be important as always. The NAM just shows a pretty solid squall line from E Ohio to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The NAM just shows a pretty solid squall line from E Ohio to Maine. That can still give a few good bangs on the way through. Trip to ME postponed until Thursday--hopefully that'll work out for me. 68.9/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The NAM just shows a pretty solid squall line from E Ohio to Maine. 0-6 km shear doesn't have much of a component parallel to the front. Forcing should ensure plenty of storm coverage, but shear vectors should allow for some discrete features within it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 squall lines >>>>>>>> discrete stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Squall lines highly overrated. Meh, shelf Cloud. Oooooooooohhhhhh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I really really hope that the ML lapse rates at least hold around 6.5 or improve as we get closer. I don't want a repeat of 6/6/10 which is always a worry when you have debris ruin lapse rates. This setup seems to be more favorable for that at least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Squall lines highly overrated. Meh, shelf Cloud. Oooooooooohhhhhh!! Stop wanting the type of storm that affects the fewest people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SPC says "What severe weather?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Saw 6/1/2011 on CIPS when looking to see if 5/31/98 was still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 General motion of the WAA induced MCS tomorrow according to the SPC WRF. Would probably quash things for far northern areas, but I would posit this would leave a nice residual OFB or differential heating boundary across central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I really really hope that the ML lapse rates at least hold around 6.5 or improve as we get closer. I don't want a repeat of 6/6/10 which is always a worry when you have debris ruin lapse rates. This setup seems to be more favorable for that at least right now. Yeah - I was surprised this morning to see the models still hanging on to ~7C/km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 SPC says "What severe weather?" Yeah that was a somewhat odd SWODY2. BOX has done a nice job playing things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Squall lines highly overrated. Meh, shelf Cloud. Oooooooooohhhhhh!! Don't you mean funnel cloud??? At least that's what all the phone calls we receive will say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 General motion of the WAA induced MCS tomorrow according to the SPC WRF. Would probably quash things for far northern areas, but I would posit this would leave a nice residual OFB or differential heating boundary across central New England. SPC WRF.png Just get me some sun by noon. If it's 18Z and I'm still in the dank while Cheshire is FEW and 85/70 I'll be on full tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yeah that was a somewhat odd SWODY2. BOX has done a nice job playing things up a bit. Tepid. When Ekster is texting me after 6 days off about the potential I take notice, despite the relative lack of interest from Oklahoma. I'll probably be chatting with them today about altering the outline of the risk outlook. I mean I see some potential farther east in our area at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yeah chances are a full on EML 7.5C/KM or better may not happen, but 6.5C/KM or better certainly is darn good around here. 7C/KM would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 And honestly, with all due respect, who cares what SPC has or doesn't have. That's like caring what WPC has in the winter for snow. Let the local people who know the climo try to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 hoping I be able to get a hardcore look at models later tonight. I'll wake up early too and look at things...really hoping I won't have to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 squall lines >>>>>>>> discrete stuff Discrete is more rare around here. That's why I tend to root for it in potential severe outbreaks like this one. Squall lines are usually what we deal with here due to how far east we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Seems like the combination of best helicity and instability is springfield to orh and north of pike/rt 2 and into southern nh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Tepid. When Ekster is texting me after 6 days off about the potential I take notice, despite the relative lack of interest from Oklahoma. I'll probably be chatting with them today about altering the outline of the risk outlook. I mean I see some potential farther east in our area at least. Oh yay there you are. Yeah you're area definitely could get into some pretty good action. You'll be much closer to the s/w with pretty decent height falls. Your area also seems to do much better with getting stronger instability in while having the warm front in close proximity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 hoping I be able to get a hardcore look at models later tonight. I'll wake up early too and look at things...really hoping I won't have to work.Just call in sick dude and get your friend to chase. You work like a million jobs and are going to school in September anyway. What's one more mundane day at work compared to chasing tornadoes? Last time you decided to score a high school baseball game instead of seeing an EF3. I would think you learned a lesson but now you will miss a major, rare outbreak again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 And honestly, with all due respect, who cares what SPC has or doesn't have. That likes caring what WPC has in the winter for snow. Let the local people who know the climo try to figure it out. I always get the sense the SPC is a little gun shy with New England. Think they've been burned enough over the years by the quirks and vicissitudes of our local climo that they hedge on the conservative side, even when things look pretty darn favorable. Wasn't 6/1/11 a slight risk day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just took a look at the overnight WRF runs, all pretty much keep the southern half of my forecast are precip free with the MCS. ARW is quick re-firing storms (clears by 19z), but the rest all develop rather potent looking semi-discrete convection by 18-20z across southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I always get the sense the SPC is a little gun shy with New England. Think they've been burned enough over the years by the quirks and vicissitudes of our local climo that they hedge on the conservative side, even when things look pretty darn favorable. Wasn't 6/1/11 a slight risk day? Yes, but with the caveat that it would have been an enhanced risk on the new scale. It didn't exist back then, SPC was well aware of the potential of 6/1/11 5 days out. That was a well forecast event, but the majority of the time a meh outlook will suffice in New England. That is our climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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