OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yup. It screws up those steep mid level lapse rates (probably through latent heat release?) but still keeps things pretty juicy in terms of CAPE/shear by afternoon. Now, if the NAM is wrong about that morning convection then the final solution is probably more impressive. Right? Definitely a latent heat release thing screwing up the lapse rates. They are junk where it is dropping convective precip in the morning. There is going to be a good gradient of parameters somewhere in the northern BOX CWA or southern GYX CWA. I love gradients for something significant. Maybe it's an HP/bowish thing, but could be something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Yup. It screws up those steep mid level lapse rates (probably through latent heat release?) but still keeps things pretty juicy in terms of CAPE/shear by afternoon. Now, if the NAM is wrong about that morning convection then the final solution is probably more impressive. Hopefully it's warming the ML lapse rates too much...because if we end up with <6.0 C/KM, it will probably be a pretty mundane event. Shear and Cape (mostly from LL lapse rates and high dews) will try to compensate a bit, but to get some high end stuff, I'd want good ML lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Right? Definitely a latent heat release thing screwing up the lapse rates. They are junk where it is dropping convective precip in the morning. There is going to be a good gradient of parameters somewhere in the northern BOX CWA or southern GYX CWA. I love gradients for something significant. Maybe it's an HP/bowish thing, but could be something more. Also interesting how different the 4km NAM is from the 12km version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Hopefully it's warming the ML lapse rates too much...because if we end up with <6.0 C/KM, it will probably be a pretty mundane event. Shear and Cape (mostly from LL lapse rates and high dews) will try to compensate a bit, but to get some high end stuff, I'd want good ML lapse rates. Yup - all comes down to the morning junk. We've got the remnant EML plume - the question is how much it is modified by morning stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 With the morning convection...as long as we go get an EML plume to move overhead following the activity, the AM convection would be good b/c the cap associated with the EML would trap more moisture in the llvls which could allow for dewpoint pooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The remnant EML plume is going over PA/NJ/NYC south area. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/midlapse1227.gif Despite this, though, mixed layer CAPE is still pretty high in SNE by 21z. Impressive how much recovering occurs. As others have said, if the NAM is wrong about the morning activity but is right about everything else...then boom. Regardless, though, the true EML of 7.5C or so does not appear likely to make it into the area. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/mlcapeonly1233.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Also interesting how different the 4km NAM is from the 12km version. 12z 4km with a wicked supercell just south of CON. Maybe this is payback for the area that looked so great on 6/1/11 but mysteriously had no storms at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Kinda annoying to see those sick mid-level lapse rates get mixed out...the EML plume is mostly just mixed out remnants by the time it advects northward. This would reduce the likelihood of discrete supercells but the CAPE, shear, and forcing all look very favorable for a potent squall line and some clusters with embedded supercell characteristics. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/midlapse1230.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 As you say, best threat for TOR is like ALB to CAR. Should be some interesting potential where the Hudson and Mohawk Rivers converge as well as central Maine just south of Katahdin... We're going to spend two days this week tromping thru the woods, doghair thickets in particular, about 45 miles west of Katahdin. The plan had been for Tuesday-Wednesday. I'll probably have to forfeit my weenie tag because we've chickened out and bumped it back to Wed-Thurs. We spent two rainy July days recently in similar forest stands, and really do not wish to repeat the experience if possible, even if it means we miss being in the woods for severe TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 12z 4km Just check out the overshooting tops modeled here. That's pretty discrete convection for these parts. Don't hate that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wow, the 4KM NAM definitely favors more discrete, explosive convection than the regular NAM. Perhaps since the 12KM NAM is stronger with the MCS, the EML gets mixed out much more easily, whereas the 4KM NAM would have the truly loaded gun soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wow, the 4KM NAM definitely favors more discrete, explosive convection than the regular NAM. Perhaps since the 12KM NAM is stronger with the MCS, the EML gets mixed out much more easily, whereas the 4KM NAM would have the truly loaded gun soundings. Even the 06z 4km version really recovers lapse rates after the morning junk. Wouldn't call it a full on EML near CON, but develops over 2000 J/kg. Winds veered to 200 near the surface, but winds are so strong from the west just off the deck that you still get great turning in the lowest 3 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 And honestly, with all due respect, who cares what SPC has or doesn't have. That's like caring what WPC has in the winter for snow. Let the local people who know the climo try to figure it out. I agree with you on that, though I don't like using the words "SNE climate" and severe in the same sentence Getting all warm and tingly seeing parts of eastern Iowa gusting to 93 mph this morning. High end severe system. I picked the wrong time to quite my Cedar Rapids job. Isn't it always a mostly SNE threat with you? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 12z 4km Just check out the overshooting tops modeled here. That's pretty discrete convection for these parts. Don't hate that look. hires_btop_neng_34.png I'd lie to see a couple frames earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I picked the wrong time to quite my Cedar Rapids job. Wild morning for DVN. Widespread 70-90 mph gusts with structural damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I'd lie to see a couple frames earlier.... 20z is just a little more in the developmental stage of the storms. Looks like it has four discrete storms, like CON, EEN, AQW, and south of PSF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 20z is just a little more in the developmental stage of the storms. Looks like it has four discrete storms, like CON, EEN, AQW, and south of PSF. Having the shear vectors orthogonal to the prefrontal trough and cold front is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Having the shear vectors orthogonal to the prefrontal trough and cold front is nice. Just shot a chat at SPC about SWODY2. We'll see what input they have. We've been told they like to get input from the WFOs, but at least an hour before issuance otherwise it's too late to change what they have in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just looking at the GFS. Lapse rates seem to be pretty meh again... but damn that's a lot of 0-3km helicity. Especially with chanelling in the valley we're looking at >300 m2/s2 0-3km helicity in the Hartford area with 2000 joules of CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Just looking at the GFS. Lapse rates seem to be pretty meh again... but damn that's a lot of 0-3km helicity. Especially with chanelling in the valley we're looking at >300 m2/s2 0-3km helicity in the Hartford area with 2000 joules of CAPE. The GFS doesn't get significant CAPE North of the Pike. Pretty meh overall. Things still look decent southwest towards NYC although the models seem to want to hold off development until the front is already southeast of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Wild morning for DVN. Widespread 70-90 mph gusts with structural damage.Lets get that in here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Michigan looks like their going to get smacked by that line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 12z SPC WRF is in. Still shows broken line of supercells across New England, as far north at BTV which surprises me. But as always, trust the evolution not so much the timing and definitely not the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 12z SPC WRF is in. Still shows broken line of supercells across New England, as far north at BTV which surprises me. But as always, trust the evolution not so much the timing and definitely not the location. Agreed...when you see these models spit out convective mode of supercells, whether they be discrete or a broken line that is a pretty big eye opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Both the NAM and GFS seem similar with timing...at least when looking at soundings...seems like mid-level front blows through between 18z and 21z given degree of dry air which works in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think we might have to watch for a sneaky supercell on the northern end of the recovering air mass. GFS hinting that we might get warm sector as far north as IZG to LEW. Wind field stays more impressive much longer in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 I think we might have to watch for a sneaky supercell on the northern end of the recovering air mass. GFS hinting that we might get warm sector as far north as IZG to LEW. Wind field stays more impressive much longer in ME. Certainly possible...especially if the recovering airmass becomes as unstable as the models project. Would be a similar scenario to what happens out in the OV at times...MO/IA/IL/IN etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Both the NAM and GFS seem similar with timing...at least when looking at soundings...seems like mid-level front blows through between 18z and 21z given degree of dry air which works in. Looks like the GFS is a hair faster with convection, blows all convective precip through the coast by 21z. So that would explain the soundings drying out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like the GFS is a hair faster with convection, blows all convective precip through the coast by 21z. So that would explain the soundings drying out quickly. Trying to determine if earlier is better or not. Part of me thinks so b/c some of the better parameters are better aligned early on but too early and we don't achieve maximum instability. Which honestly even if we got 2000 instead of 3500 that's still pretty damn solid. maybe the difference between an EF3 and an EF4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Trying to determine if earlier is better or not. Part of me thinks so b/c some of the better parameters are better aligned early on but too early and we don't achieve maximum instability. Which honestly even if we got 2000 instead of 3500 that's still pretty damn solid. maybe the difference between an EF3 and an EF4 I think we want to delay in order to maximize heating, but the caveat being we lose the best helicity in that case. So we sacrifice tornadoes for siggy severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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