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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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4 PM UPDATE...

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT.


MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE STEEP AT
7C/KM PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. THUS STILL EXPECTING AN
ACTIVE DAY OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND HAVE THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY...WE MAKE UP FOR IT WITH THE DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILE...AROUND 40-50 KTS OF SHEAR. IN ADDITION...0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON ALL THE MODELS. SO WITH A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE...HIGH SHEAR AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR...BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT ACTIVITY MAKING IT ALL
THE WAY TO THE CAPE COD CANAL GIVEN STRONG FORCING.
MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ALSO CANNOT
UNDERPLAY THE LIGHTNING RISK. PWAT VALUES DO CLIMB UP TO 2 INCHES
WITH K VALUES ABOVE 40...SO ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY...THIS COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE LOCATIONS COULD GET A QUICK
INCH OF RAIN WITHIN 20 MINS.

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