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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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Yeah today was pretty epic

Epic fail...line is bowing out in southern NJ however...looks like the best storms will be S NJ/PHL/DCA/N VA...interesting as some worried about the surface low and best height falls being too far north and then the heaviest storms ended up much further south than SNE or even NYC...shows how little we know about the atmosphere.

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Today went about as planned when you factored in caveats for widespread and higher end activity. There is a reason why we bring it up.

Lack of great ML lapse rates was a bit concerning. For a moment it looked like we could advect then in but it never really happened. They weren't as bad as 6/6/10...but marginal enough to be a bit worried.

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Lack of great ML lapse rates was a bit concerning. For a moment it looked like we could advect then in but it never really happened. They weren't as bad as 6/6/10...but marginal enough to be a bit worried.

 

If that morning MCS that came out of PA didn't exist, I think we'd be looking at a totally different situation right now.

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Glad not to be emotionally invested in this one. Seeing the Cisco TX storm in person sort of put things in perspective.

That said I am sitting on the dam in Quabbin with a nice southerly breeze, swallows and dragonflies buzzing, and TCU to the north and it is quite pleasant.

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Idk...I'm not really sure how much that really affected things. It's not like the atmosphere didn't recover b/c we realized 1500-2000 MLcape and 2000-2500 SBcape with -6 LI's or so.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was lack of stronger height falls...height falls seemed rather meh and it's pretty difficult to get high end with poor height falls.

We didn't get 7-7.5 lapse rates but we had 6.5 which isn't great but that's not going to be a killer either

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Idk...I'm not really sure how much that really affected things. It's not like the atmosphere didn't recover b/c we realized 1500-2000 MLcape and 2000-2500 SBcape with -6 LI's or so.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was lack of stronger height falls...height falls seemed rather meh and it's pretty difficult to get high end with poor height falls.

We didn't get 7-7.5 lapse rates but we had 6.5 which isn't great but that's not going to be a killer either

 

I mean with the shear we had in place, more CAPE would've helped the updrafts really punch upwards. Once the dry slot started in from the west, too much entrainment ate away at them before they could really get going.

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Idk...I'm not really sure how much that really affected things. It's not like the atmosphere didn't recover b/c we realized 1500-2000 MLcape and 2000-2500 SBcape with -6 LI's or so.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was lack of stronger height falls...height falls seemed rather meh and it's pretty difficult to get high end with poor height falls.

We didn't get 7-7.5 lapse rates but we had 6.5 which isn't great but that's not going to be a killer either

I'm not sure about the height falls though because the height falls were less farther south, and that's where the best severe was. The best feature from the whole storm is the bowing line is S NJ that will hit the Delmarva and DC area a bit later. They had far less height falls under the mid-level ridge but realized a much more powerful outbreak (though nothing like the derecho that hit them a few years ago)....

 

I think the widespread cloudiness and morning MCS made it hard to realize a big outbreak...We never had full sunshine here, it was always in and out of clouds, and the high ML lapse rates made it to central NJ just west of NYC. 

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Warning just issued for HFD/TOL.. Hope this delivers the wind/blowdown

EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...

NORTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...

SOUTH CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 718 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60

MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH

HADLEY TO NEAR OTIS...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SPRINGFIELD...CHICOPEE...ENFIELD...WESTFIELD...HOLYOKE...WINDSOR...

AGAWAM...WEST SPRINGFIELD...SOUTH WINDSOR...SIMSBURY...LUDLOW...

BLOOMFIELD...SOUTH HADLEY...EASTHAMPTON...LONGMEADOW...SUFFIELD...

EAST LONGMEADOW...ELLINGTON...WILBRAHAM AND WINDSOR LOCKS.

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