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Potential for a rather potent severe weather event


weatherwiz

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It's just a day and setup like today that make something like a 6/1/11 that much more special.  It's one thing to have a ton of ingredients in place but it's a whole other world getting everything to align and come together and everything to work out.  

 

Anyways though looking at the SPC reports and reading Ryan's blog post it sounds like parts of southern CT got nailed pretty good with lots of wind damage.  I guess you can take what you want from this but looking at the storm reports and looking at SPC's thoughts nd thoughts of many others, overall today probably panned out not too shabby.  

 

I know there was talk about tornadoes and I at least threw out strong TOR possibilities and talk about a major outbreak but when you discuss those options that doesn't necessarily mean they will happen or that's exactly what you should expect.  Yes this certainly had a much higher ceiling for performing but the SPC enhanced risk is probably verified at least.  

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It's just a day and setup like today that make something like a 6/1/11 that much more special. It's one thing to have a ton of ingredients in place but it's a whole other world getting everything to align and come together and everything to work out.

Anyways though looking at the SPC reports and reading Ryan's blog post it sounds like parts of southern CT got nailed pretty good with lots of wind damage. I guess you can take what you want from this but looking at the storm reports and looking at SPC's thoughts nd thoughts of many others, overall today probably panned out not too shabby.

I know there was talk about tornadoes and I at least threw out strong TOR possibilities and talk about a major outbreak but when you discuss those options that doesn't necessarily mean they will happen or that's exactly what you should expect. Yes this certainly had a much higher ceiling for performing but the SPC enhanced risk is probably verified at least.

Agree 100%. You can have the precursors there but there are so many variables in nature it's almost impossible to say whether or not it will all come together. It sucks the storms didn't hit where people wanted but such is life. I'm ready for the next one.

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Agree 100%. You can have the precursors there but there are so many variables in nature it's almost impossible to say whether or not it will all come together. It sucks the storms didn't hit where people wanted but such is life. I'm ready for the next one.

 

Dealing with convection is very, very challenging, especially around these parts.  In the end it pretty much always just comes down to nowcasting and mesoscale features.  You can poor over all the model guidance and data leading up to the day but ultimately nothing is more important than how things evolve from the AM on...especially when you have concerns about cloud cover, MCS leftovers, etc.  It's great when the models are spitting out favorable numbers and parameters, and other factors but that's just a little piece of the puzzle.  

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Good to see Kevin's cold ocean waters helping srn areas get the most damage! Who would want to live there?

Glad some of the south coast weenies had some fun. Basically a shut out IMBY but we were on with it wall to wall from 430-610 or so. I thin we did a good job pinpointing the wind threat areas once that RIJ appeared on velocity especially.

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Glad some of the south coast weenies had some fun. Basically a shut out IMBY but we were on with it wall to wall from 430-610 or so. I thin we did a good job pinpointing the wind threat areas once that RIJ appeared on velocity especially.

Yeah, nice job as usual there.

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I was hoping that supercell cluster out along the northern RI/mass border would survive the treck east towards our area but sadly those storms slid just to our south. After the dumping we had last winter, I can't complain. It sure would be nice to get some more rain near the coast though. Ironically, the Cape/Islands ended up with a pretty good soaking earlier which goes to show you never know who will luck out with convective activity this time of year. I'll keep my fingers crossed for future rain and potential severe weather outbreaks.

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54kts in HYA. Awesome for the so called death trap of storms. Definitely a south coast day, but pretty meh most everywhere else.

 

 

Probably not a total coincidence that the best stuff was the south coast where some slightly higher ML lapse rates were able to nose in from the SW.

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Glad some of the south coast weenies had some fun. Basically a shut out IMBY but we were on with it wall to wall from 430-610 or so. I thin we did a good job pinpointing the wind threat areas once that RIJ appeared on velocity especially.

I left work in East Haddam about 4:45, hoping to outrun the storm home in Oakdale. I got stuck behind a bunch of slow drivers on 82 & the storm caught up with me. In my haste to get around the slow pokes, I took a side road/shortcut. In doing that, I ended up a couple of miles away from the high winds. Typical.

And to top it off, the second round of storms off the sound were just to the east of me. Same old, same old.

Hopefully the ride into work tomorrow will feature lots of damage to view.

Great job by you & the team today Ryan.

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Probably the prettiest sunset I have every seen. People were coming out of their houses in awe. And I lent my camera to my daughter :(

 

Best I could do:

 

attachicon.gifpost1.jpg

 

attachicon.gifpost2.jpg

Nice Pics. Not much action here, just got clipped by a cell that produced some heavy rain, no wind.

That second pic eerily reminds me the 2003 Cedar Fire in SoCal when I lived there.

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Has NWS issued a report yet? I know they were sending a survey crew

Not yet.  Just from what I am hearing.

 

 

 

000

NOUS41 KBOX 240213

PNSBOX

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-241200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1013 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED TOMORROW MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TAUNTON MA WILL CONDUCT A

STORM SURVEY AROUND MID MORNING FOR AREAS NEAR THE MASSACHUSETTS AND

RHODE ISLAND BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE TOWNS OF

BLACKSTONE...WOONSOCKET...FRANKLIN AND WRENTHAM. OTHER TOWNS MAY

BE ADDED TO THIS LIST. THE SURVEY IS IN RELATION TO THE SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON JUNE 23 2015.

A FINAL ASSESSMENT INCLUDING RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ARE EXPECTED

TO BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION

STATEMENT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

IT WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE...WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT

WEATHER.GOV/BOX.

$

DUNTEN

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT

@NWSBOSTON

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Once I saw that morning convection and MCS I had a feeling the best action would be SE of my location. You could see the deepest richest moisture plume and lapse rates being shunted south. I knew that cell in Litchfield county would probably not make it, we were getting tons of cloud debris and blow off from that line developing to the south which seemed to steal the show. It was still an interesting and fascinating day. The discussion from METS and knowledgeable hobbyists was top notch. This really is the place to go for severe weather and any significant weather events.

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You help out with that Jake? Are you at NSSL?

 

Oh, no, I didn't do anything with the outlook or verification. I'm technically CIMMS which is a cooperative effort between OU and the NSSL (so half at NSSL and within that space, lol). Jimmy is at CIMMS/SPC and often posts those verification graphics on Twitter. Lots of acronyms and interacting divisions... ha. I just thought it'd be interesting to share as a post-morten follow-up to the event. :)

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Yea screw severe, keep it, from Wallingford, my biggest fear.

Yeah, hearing a lot of trees down around the Choate campus in Wallingford. Good thing students were gone by then. Several structures crushed by trees in the Hartford Turnpike section of North Haven as well, not far from Sleeping Giant park.

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