ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Even the 12z GFS yesterday was more than an inch for you. We'll see what today does I guess. So is the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 So is the 06z GFS. Yeah it is. That's a nice formidable low too. Wish it was further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It does look a little tighter... maybe I could go as far as 2", but I think I stand pat with my C-1" No one should care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It does look a little tighter... maybe I could go as far as 2", but I think I stand pat with my C-1" No one should care Coating for me and MPM with Sun out by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 ALY has 3-4 for Lichfield CTY. Unless it all comes after dark, I do not see that panning out up here. C-1" at best north of 84, lollis to 3-4" south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Harv Was pretty adamant last night about nothing north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Harv Was pretty adamant last night about nothing north of the pike. You always have to bring it up another level when you go on air and give a more plausible scenario at that time. It's one thing to convey thoughts about what might or might not happen on a weather forum. It's another to tell it to millions of people. At least you have room to adjust if something creeps up being 48hrs or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 my initial thoughts Shelburne 1/4 Greenfield 1/3 Westminster 3/4 Hubbtown 1 ORH. 1.5 BOS. 1.5 Wilmington 1 TAN 2 Springfield 1.5 BDL 2 Tolland 2.5 HFD 2.5 Hvn 4 BDR 4 Moosup 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 9Z SREF QPF mean is .4 at BDL. If you remove the ridiculous amped members it would probably be .25-.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 South of Pike Spring continues, pretty special winter for the southern boys and gals of our forum. The two day windstorm was pretty unprecedented,usually we get fropo.couple of hours of very strong winds then a windy next day, that was nearly 24 hrs of crazy. I'd honestly would've have rather gotten the business end of that three week stretch, but to each their own. You guys are def. leading the tack on parade. May cost us some records up this way, which sucks...but Feb was worth it. That protracted period of ferocious winds was very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'd honestly would've have rather gotten the business end of that three week stretch, but to each their own. You guys are def. leading the tack on parade. May cost us some records up this way, which sucks...but Feb was worth it. That protracted period of ferocious winds was very impressive. Lol there is zero chance anyone would trade 90" in 3 weeks for a few 4-8" events in March. But anyhoo....this one still might end up half decent but we need 12z to bump north. If 12z bumps south then we can throw in the towel in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 That's an increase from 3z on the sref's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Lol there is zero chance anyone would trade 90" in 3 weeks for a few 4-8" events in March. But anyhoo....this one still might end up half decent but we need 12z to bump north. If 12z bumps south then we can throw in the towel in our area. Yea, what can you do....if it goes to crap, hopefully the southern crowd enjoys it. We'll have more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 That's an increase from 3z on the sref's Yea, what can you do....if it goes to crap, hopefully the southern crowd enjoys it. We'll have more chances. any snow is good snow. A bunch had the business end and the adder padders, great winter for the south eastern boys of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'd honestly would've have rather gotten the business end of that three week stretch, but to each their own. You guys are def. leading the tack on parade. May cost us some records up this way, which sucks...but Feb was worth it. That protracted period of ferocious winds was very impressive. No Doubt Ray, that run you had out East there was Historic...Wish we could have gotten in on the Real Meat and Potato's of that here. And you got it all in 3 weeks which is amazing. Yes we've been tacking on here which makes it a lil nicer for those of us that missed out on the bulk of the 3 week stretch. But when I was getting 12-14 inches in those big storms, you were getting 25-30 plus. Let's hope 12z comes in better today, that would be nice for all of us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 No Doubt Ray, that run you had out East there was Historic...Wish we could have gotten in on the Real Meat and Potato's of that here. And you got it all in 3 weeks which is amazing. Yes we've been tacking on here which makes it a lil nicer for those of us that missed out on the bulk of the 3 week stretch. But when I was getting 12-14 inches in those big storms, you were getting 25-30 plus. Let's hope 12z comes in better today, that would be nice for all of us!! I was talking more about the folks who have had the best of both worlds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Thinking maybe 1 to 1.5 here tomorrow. Considering the date, I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I was talking more about the folks who have had the best of both worlds Oh I know Steve, I realized that. Your area did have the best of both...just amazing for you guys in Eastern CT for sure. I wasn't shut out here, but like I mentioned, just missed the real show, but hung on with decent results. Once you get west of me, it gets much much worse for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 any snow is good snow. A bunch had the business end and the adder padders, great winter for the south eastern boys of winter Well maybe the south shore...further south than that missed the meat of Feb 2nd and moreso Feb 7-9. A small area may have like 120"+ in the south shore region..otherwise you go further south and the amounts trend more toward 90-105" and further north is in the 110-120" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Still looks like primarily a miss to me. Every operational model type I have seen, with the exception of the UKMET, has QPF initially over-spreading to about the Pike and points south, but only light, and then collapsing and drying the column back south within just a couple of hours of that happening. Even the NAM depicts this... I guess nothing's etched in stone until it happens as the old saying goes; perhaps things can correct in a now-cast scenario, but this looks like a no show/phase failure, prior to another N stream bullying in for more late season chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 NAM looks so-so even for my area. Best is south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well maybe the south shore...further south than that missed the meat of Feb 2nd and moreso Feb 7-9. A small area may have like 120"+ in the south shore region..otherwise you go further south and the amounts trend more toward 90-105" and further north is in the 110-120" range. Tickling 120"! As far as this system go's, best forcing looks over SW CT and along the LI Sound into South Coastal MA. Best shot of advisory level snows in that area lessening as you go N up to I-90/Rt2 where I could see 1-2" falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'd honestly would've have rather gotten the business end of that three week stretch, but to each their own. You guys are def. leading the tack on parade. May cost us some records up this way, which sucks...but Feb was worth it. That protracted period of ferocious winds was very impressive. That's it!! We come have a parade! I'll play the accordion while walking! I'll put the LED light on too. We will have weenie signs and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 That's it!! We come have a parade! I'll play the accordion while walking! I'll put the LED light on too. We will have weenie signs and such. Cory, I tried to send you a message yesterday but your box is full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Can we just lock on the 09z ARW please. LOL. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Can we just lock on the 09z ARW please. LOL. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 RGEM looks pretty far south at 12z...that's probably the nail in the coffin for the pike region northward for anything meaningful...doesn't look very good for CT/RI either except maybe SW of HFD over to GON...where perhaps 1-3" would fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 I was talking more about the folks who have had the best of both worlds Well, folks out here east of you have more for a reason. It's been nice everywhere, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Looked ok in far SW CT, Pretty meh for the rest down that way for part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Fine with 1-3.. Though I'm still thinking the fronto weenie band will produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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