weathafella Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I believe harvey will show ray why he makes the big bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I didn't say that. This thing will bulge north and then scoot east. My issue is how far this comes north. Of all models now, the GFS looks best. You better hope your beloved euro isn't right. If the GFS is right, there should be a good band in srn areas. I guess we'll see if 12z comes bumps north. Well I'm not putting any stock in the GFS..none.. I'm basing my thoughts on what i laid out. I think modles are overdoing confluence at this point..and that there will be a nice mid level fronto band that they aren't picking up on. Similar to that last storm that got SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 What? I'm not sold on more than 2" in those zones right now. It doesn't mean it can't happen...but I'd rather be near Brian12345678910. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm not sold on more than 2" in those zones right now. It doesn't mean it can't happen...but I'd rather be near Brian12345678910. oh i thought you meant you thought it wasn't going to snow..or just flurries or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Well I'm not putting any stock in the GFS..none.. I'm basing my thoughts on what i laid out. I think modles are overdoing confluence at this point..and that there will be a nice mid level fronto band that they aren't picking up on. Similar to that last storm that got SE Mass Models always shows signs of that. You don't just wish them to appear. I the GFS is right, might be south coast..perhaps near you. I will say the model disagreement later Friday Night and Saturday leads me to think that holding off until 12z for any definitive amounts is probably a good idea. There are still some issues with that second incoming s/w on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Anyways, the garbage deal Friday should not change any feelings going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Anyways,? the garbage deal Friday should not change any feelings going forward. Which are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 OKX with a winter weather advisory in effect for tomorrow's 1-3 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 lolol okx always with those way ahead headlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I'm not sold on more than 2" in those zones right now. It doesn't mean it can't happen...but I'd rather be near Brian12345678910. SW CT March. Even here, I could see us being on the edge...looks like another PHL-NYC special. GFS is much more robust than the RGEM. RGEM is usually deadly in this range, so I would buy it's solution over the GFS. Upton's 2-4 here looks good at this point. However, if we're only 2, bet it's mainly grass and colder surfaces unless this continues well into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 South of Pike Spring continues, pretty special winter for the southern boys and gals of our forum. The two day windstorm was pretty unprecedented,usually we get fropo.couple of hours of very strong winds then a windy next day, that was nearly 24 hrs of crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 SW CT March. Even here, I could see us being on the edge...looks like another PHL-NYC special. GFS is much more robust than the RGEM. RGEM is usually deadly in this range, so I would buy it's solution over the GFS. It's clown range for the RGEM still..I probably would wait more for the 18z and 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's clown range for the RGEM still..I probably would wait more for the 18z and 00z runs. Yeah, today's 12z runs will be big, another tick south and even the south coast is out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 What is this "another" tick south stuff? The RGEm didn't go south..It' s still not even in range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 What is this "another" tick south stuff? The RGEm didn't go south..It' s still not even in range yet. Why are you melting down about a storm that has always looked lole crap at the end of a 100" winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Why are you melting down about a storm that has always looked lole crap at the end of a 100" winter? Huh? Your 2-5 forecast looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It's clown range for the RGEM still..I probably would wait more for the 18z and 00z runs. Its been deadly awful on many events and puked on itself inside 24hrs on a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 What is this "another" tick south stuff? The RGEm didn't go south..It' s still not even in range yet. Models are definitely south of where yesterday's runs were. (except the GFS) Spin it anyway you want, but north of 84 this looks like crap. And the fact that it's coming in the daytime doesn't help (especially if there's only 2 inches of snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Its been deadly awful on many events and puked on itself inside 24hrs on a couple In my neck of the woods, it has nailed almost every event this year. Even had the lake effect snow streamer correct yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 In my neck of the woods, it has nailed almost every event this year. Even had the lake effect snow streamer correct yesterday. It has been meh up here many times, But then again, So haven't the others on a lot of these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Models are definitely south of where yesterday's runs were. (except the GFS) Spin it anyway you want, but north of 84 this looks like crap. And the fact that it's coming in the daytime doesn't help (especially if there's only 2 inches of snow) It looks fine south of the pike if you are expecting 2-5 inches of snow. And it's mostly coming at night. It doesn't even tart in your area till 3:00..with most coming after dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It looks fine south of the pike if you are expecting 2-5 inches of snow. And it's mostly coming at night. It doesn't even tart in your area till 3:00..with most coming after dark if it starts that late, then we'd be good to miss most of the solar insolation. 12z runs will nail it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 It looks fine south of the pike if you are expecting 2-5 inches of snow. And it's mostly coming at night. It doesn't even tart in your area till 3:00..with most coming after darkYeah... I think CT, esp a little south, will do fine 5 might be tough to get for many, but maybe a few lollis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Whats up with the Euro going nuts Sat morning for ORH-east? No other model does that. 06z RGEM coming in south after a decent 00z run is not a good sign. Maybe Hubb's pessimism will win out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 Whats up with the Euro going nuts Sat morning for ORH-east? No other model does that. 06z RGEM coming in south after a decent 00z run is not a good sign. Maybe Hubb's pessimism will win out on this one. Maybe it ends up like every other theat over the course of the last 5 weeks....T-2" here, and Steve, Kevin and Bob doing naked snow angels, but I thought this one had a better shot, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Whats up with the Euro going nuts Sat morning for ORH-east? No other model does that. 06z RGEM coming in south after a decent 00z run is not a good sign. Maybe Hubb's pessimism will win out on this one. Bruce Willis out on the runway again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Whats up with the Euro going nuts Sat morning for ORH-east? No other model does that. 06z RGEM coming in south after a decent 00z run is not a good sign. Maybe Hubb's pessimism will win out on this one. I was merely hanging my hat on the GFS mostly. Not really being a pessimist. If it showed a decent thump I would have gone with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I was merely hanging my hat on the GFS mostly. Not really being a pessimist. If it showed a decent thump I would have gone with that Even the 12z GFS yesterday was more than an inch for you. We'll see what today does I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Even the 12z GFS yesterday was more than an inch for you. We'll see what today does I guess. It's the patriotic thing to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 I was merely hanging my hat on the GFS mostly. Not really being a pessimist. If it showed a decent thump I would have gone with that Man, I'm sure it still does great forecasting the movement of high altitude cirrus clouds over Mount Kilimanjaro, but the EURO model is not the same when it counts. Sad, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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