klw Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 May 1st showing some potential for interesting weather: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 May 1st showing some potential for interesting weather: No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 No thanks Yeah, Lets keep it over in NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 There are some pretty impressive analogs on the CIPS site for powderfreak country...both the 4/28/10 and 4/9/12 are on there as well as 4/15/95 and 4/6/07. There's also analogs that didn't produce much so obviously the nuances in the flow are going to be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 A different event, but I wonder if the summits can rip this evening for a time. Really close soundings. Well, the look of the clouds and mountains is much more a snow one today than it has been the past few – I’ve been watching snow crashing out in the higher elevations of the Northern Greens at times throughout the morning. The temperature at 3,950’ on Mansfield is apparently in the upper 30s F, but the precipitation definitely looks like snow, so temperatures are cold enough up there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Higher el of PA now. It's coming. KJST 221629Z AUTO 23006KT 1SM -SN BR BKN002 OVC009 01/00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 There are some pretty impressive analogs on the CIPS site for powderfreak country...both the 4/28/10 and 4/9/12 are on there as well as 4/15/95 and 4/6/07. There's also analogs that didn't produce much so obviously the nuances in the flow are going to be important. Interesting that those first two events show up but not surprising given the look and position of the modeled upper level trough and cut off mid-levels. You are right in that these are hard to forecast until even 24 hours out as wind flow and force plus vort maxes or bundles of energy rotating around the ULL play a big role in going from like 2-6" to 8"+. Get the flow and moisture to line up, plus some cyclonic vorticity crashing due south into NVT/NNY from Quebec and that's when you get that 6-12 hour period of moderate to heavy orographics amid a more general light precip precip regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Interesting that those first two events show up but not surprising given the look and position of the modeled upper level trough and cut off mid-levels. You are right in that these are hard to forecast until even 24 hours out as wind flow and force plus vort maxes or bundles of energy rotating around the ULL play a big role in going from like 2-6" to 8"+. Get the flow and moisture to line up, plus some cyclonic vorticity crashing due south into NVT/NNY from Quebec and that's when you get that 6-12 hour period of moderate to heavy orographics amid a more general light precip precip regime. The mean looked like about 10" for the northern spine... But the percentage chance it gives for 12"+ might be more of a betetr proxy with what we are dealing with: You figure about a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 shot that somewhere like Jay down to Stowe gets a foot in this general setup....like you said, that 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 chance occurs when things line up with the deep moisture, aligned flow, and probably some nice PVA rotating in to enhance it. It seems the biggest question out of those variables is do we align the flow well for a time? GFS does it Friday night it looks like with an very symmetric aligned flow at about 310-320 between 900mb-500mb with saturation right up past 500mb, but the NAM wasn't as enthused with the flow. Also GFS had better PVA. Euro looked pretty good too...but each model run will probably change slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Yeah ORH, I think that probably sounds right...a 1 in 4 chance with this set up for something solid. Every little aspect can change on the models and mess it up though...even like elongated low pressure centers can mess up the wind flow enough, even if the low center is in a good spot. It's best to try and get a good symmetrical low pressure system to get those good sustained NW winds...instead of elongated or quasi inverted trough-like features that disrupt the cyclonic flow of moisture. The vorticity advection is also important so will have to look later on about how that lines up with the wind and moisture. With good PVA aloft and orographic lifting in the low levels, those parcels can really rip upward with ease. Tonight like you said is interesting too. Can see bright banding signatures on BTV's radar but they are a long way from the radar site so those melting snowflakes must be high up there. MMNV1 has been 36-38F over the past couple hours at 4000ft. Maybe some catpaws just barely reaching the summit ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Hours and hours of virga. There is visible precip falling from the base of every cloud around me but it's been dry, with the exception of a downpour earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Hours and hours of virga. There is visible precip falling from the base of every cloud around me but it's been dry, with the exception of a downpour earlier this morning. Getting some occasional showers here, but yeah, mostly virga. RH has been sitting in that 30-40% range all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Getting some occasional showers here, but yeah, mostly virga. RH has been sitting in that 30-40% range all evening. Saw the weenie patch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Saw the weenie patch lol. Heh...still there this morning. I'm surprised any snow that close to the road is still around considering the drifting salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Hours and hours of virga. There is visible precip falling from the base of every cloud around me but it's been dry, with the exception of a downpour earlier this morning. btw...congrats on being the new home to pumpkin fest. Can't wait for the Laconia riots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Snowing at the summits while it is pouring below 3,000ft or even 3,400ft.... 33F with wet pancakes falling at 3,600ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The Cog Railroad site on MWN is 32F (MWN itself 25F) so looks like the snow level is 4-4.5kft up there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 The Cog Railroad site on MWN is 32F (MWN itself 25F) so looks like the snow level is 4-4.5kft up there right now.check your PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 btw...congrats on being the new home to pumpkin fest. Can't wait for the Laconia riots! We've been riot free since bike week got a little out of hand in 1965. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 23, 2015 Author Share Posted April 23, 2015 Down to one small weenie patch of snowblower residue in my yard. It's about 18" around and 6" deep. There are much bigger patches visible next to the I89 exit 6 access road where big drifts occur. Do we add any the next few days? Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Hey guys, do you remember that Memorial Day Weekend big high elevation snowstorm a few years ago (2012?) where Stowe got somewhere around 2ft and Whiteface about 3ft. (I even saw a pic from around Hunter Mtn that got snow from that) Was that an upslope event or no? I'm guessing it was a cutoff low with upslope enhancement if that makes sense. I'm going to try and hit Jay Peak May1st-3rd if it's decent. Haven't been there since they built the water park and installed the new tram cars. It's nearly a 7 hr drive from LI, but I still need to "get this out of my system" before I can fully embrace the warmth, lol -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Hey guys, do you remember that Memorial Day Weekend big high elevation snowstorm a few years ago (2012?) where Stowe got somewhere around 2ft and Whiteface about 3ft. (I even saw a pic from around Hunter Mtn that got snow from that) Was that an upslope event or no? I'm guessing it was a cutoff low with upslope enhancement if that makes sense. I'm going to try and hit Jay Peak May1st-3rd if it's decent. Haven't been there since they built the water park and installed the new tram cars. It's nearly a 7 hr drive from LI, but I still need to "get this out of my system" before I can fully embrace the warmth, lol -Jason Memorial day 2013. I would not consider it a cut off low with upslope enhancement. A low pressure center moving out of the south east interacted with a cold front and enough cold air existed in the system to produce heavy snow down to about 2000ft. I would not consider it upslope enhanced because BTV coded heavy rain as well during that period. Also, not a cutoff system because it lasted only about 1.5 days. It began precip late saturday morning and wrapped up Sunday morning. Sun was out by sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Light flakes falling outside this morning at 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Memorial day 2013. I would not consider it a cut off low with upslope enhancement. A low pressure center moving out of the south east interacted with a cold front and enough cold air existed in the system to produce heavy snow down to about 2000ft. I would not consider it upslope enhanced because BTV coded heavy rain as well during that period. Also, not a cutoff system because it lasted only about 1.5 days. It began precip late saturday morning and wrapped up Sunday morning. Sun was out by sunday night. Ok thanks for the explanation.Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 snowing very very lightly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 23, 2015 Author Share Posted April 23, 2015 snowing very very lightly here. Was snowing lightly at Exit 6 on the way in to work as well. Nothing at home though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Rumors of a couple inches in the mountains overnight., Might make today's drive to Pittston Farm (NW of Moosehead) more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Bolton Valley picked up a little overnight but not sure how much. It was enough to cover the bare spots in the shot that were there yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Hey guys, do you remember that Memorial Day Weekend big high elevation snowstorm a few years ago (2012?) where Stowe got somewhere around 2ft and Whiteface about 3ft. (I even saw a pic from around Hunter Mtn that got snow from that) Was that an upslope event or no? I'm guessing it was a cutoff low with upslope enhancement if that makes sense. I'm going to try and hit Jay Peak May1st-3rd if it's decent. Haven't been there since they built the water park and installed the new tram cars. It's nearly a 7 hr drive from LI, but I still need to "get this out of my system" before I can fully embrace the warmth, lol -Jason Yeah, that was a little less than two years ago. It was fun to have that snow for Memorial Day Weekend – fresh powder and kicking off the summer season all in one great weekend. I’ve got a full report from Stowe on the 26th at my site with a bunch of pictures, and I added a few below as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Snowing at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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