eekuasepinniW Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Pictures like this fascinate me. I'd like to stand right along that cutoff line during the snow. Face uphill and see snow, or turn around and see rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Pictures like this fascinate me. I'd like to stand right along that cutoff line during the snow. Face uphill and see snow, or turn around and see rain. I’ve seen that a few times, but it’s tough to get the precipitation transition to be quite that sharp with the huge continuum of snow, wet snow, non-accumulating snow, flakes that are partially melted, flakes that are mostly melted, raindrops with leftover flakes in them, mixed precipitation of raindrops and snowflakes, etc. Depending on the temperature of the ground and air, it turns out that the point of precipitation transition is often not right at that resulting accumulation line. Typically, if you see the accumulating snow line, the precipitation was often still snow for a certain distance below that elevation, but it was just non-accumulating snow. That’s what I’d expect to be the case in that event where it was warm, Memorial Day Weekend ground, and when I look back at my report, that appeared to be the case – you can see that I’m talking about the mixed precipitation a few hundred feet below that line (which was around the 2,000’ mark): “I parked at the Midway Lodge (~1,600’), where the temperature was in the mid to upper 30s F, and the precipitation was generally snow, but certainly some rain as well, and the snow that was falling was of course incredibly wet. It was pretty nasty at that point, with 25 MPH winds and driven wet snow/rain. The snow wasn’t quite accumulating there, but it was close, and you could see the accumulations just a few hundred feet up the trails.” I also talk about the specifics of the accumulating snow line that I saw during my ascent: “The first traces of snow accumulation on the ascent were at 1,800’, by 2,100’ there was generally complete coverage of the trail, and by ~2,200’ the depth was a couple of inches and it was consistent enough that I switched from hiking to skinning.” Here’s another shot from that day, showing the pretty sharp snow line, at least as viewed from that distance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 The latest thoughts on the current system from the BTV NWS as of this morning are below – they’re not expecting anything outrageous with respect to accumulations, but there are plenty of flakes in the panels of the graphical point forecast, so we’ll have to see how it builds up in the coming days. .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL/500MB CLOSED LOW CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH DEEP MOIST NW FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR NW FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THERMAL REGIME (850MB TEMPS -6C TO - 8C)...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 1000`...WITH A DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ANY ACTIVITY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER 03Z. MESOSCALE MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BEST OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NRN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH SOME DRYING DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THEREAFTER. ALSO SOME OROGRAPHIC BLOCKING DEVELOPING...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND SNOWFALL ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. THE HIGHER SUMMITS COULD SEE 2-4"...WITH A COATING-2" ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000`...ESPECIALLY N-CENTRAL VT AND IMMEDIATE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AT TIMES...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR- SFC TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN NATURE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 28-32F. PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND GENERALLY COOL (BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MAINE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 1500-2500FT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND GENERALLY 2500-3500FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN GREENS AND NRN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATING INTO THE 50-55F RANGE ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OVERCAST THRU THE PERIOD WITH NWLY SURFACE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 The latest thoughts on the current system from the BTV NWS as of this morning are below – they’re not expecting anything outrageous with respect to accumulations, but there are plenty of flakes in the panels of the graphical point forecast, so we’ll have to see how it builds up in the coming days. .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 314 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL/500MB CLOSED LOW CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF VERMONT LATE THIS EVENING...WITH DEEP MOIST NW FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING ON ITS WRN PERIPHERY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR NW FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND GIVEN THERMAL REGIME (850MB TEMPS -6C TO - 8C)...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 1000`...WITH A DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ANY ACTIVITY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER 03Z. MESOSCALE MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BEST OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NRN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS BETWEEN 00-06Z...WITH SOME DRYING DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THEREAFTER. ALSO SOME OROGRAPHIC BLOCKING DEVELOPING...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND SNOWFALL ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. THE HIGHER SUMMITS COULD SEE 2-4"...WITH A COATING-2" ACROSS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000`...ESPECIALLY N-CENTRAL VT AND IMMEDIATE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREENS. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AT TIMES...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER NEAR- SFC TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY IN NATURE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY 28-32F. PERSISTENT CLOUDY AND GENERALLY COOL (BELOW NORMAL) TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS MAINE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 1500-2500FT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND GENERALLY 2500-3500FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN GREENS AND NRN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...AND MODERATING INTO THE 50-55F RANGE ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OVERCAST THRU THE PERIOD WITH NWLY SURFACE WINDS. Still some model disagreement on if we can line up the flow well for a period of heavier snowfall. GFS looks pretty good for tomorrow night/early Saturday...actually better than tonight: But the NAM...not as enthusiastic as the flow is less aligned and the soundings are a bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Just checked cam at home and looks like wet snow or sleet. Down to 36F. Woodstove tonite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 40.3F light snow flurries. Overcast very broken and little virga to the south but solid with that snow look to the north. Have had off and on light flurries today. Not very unusual for April 23rd. Grass has greened up nicely over the past week but that, daffodils and peepers in the pond is about all I have seen of spring. Awaiting the first forsythia and that might be awhile in this cool cloudy pattern. I would say today is ice out for Newfound Lake. Some patches in the bays but 90% of the lake was clear this AM and probably just about all now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 23, 2015 Author Share Posted April 23, 2015 Still some model disagreement on if we can line up the flow well for a period of heavier snowfall. GFS looks pretty good for tomorrow night/early Saturday...actually better than tonight: But the NAM...not as enthusiastic as the flow is less aligned and the soundings are a bit drier. Jay Peak $49 this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Been snowing off and on all day (actually transitioned over to flurries at around 4AM). At one point we were accumulating here at 1100', but for the most part, it was elevations above 2000' that saw measurable snow. The mountains were glowing when the sun broke out. I wish I could capture it with my cell phone, but just waaaay too much contrast. Temp has been between 33 and 39 prettymuch all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Jay Peak $49 this weekend. It's actually 33.99 on liftopia right now. Though just a couple days ago they were 27.99 on liftopia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 18z NAM started catching on more...it looks a lot better than previous runs for Friday night and Sat (looks better tonight too, but late Fri night/early Sat is where I think the best shot for a 6-12 hour burst is)...guess it's a wait and see for more model data. But it printed out like 0.40-0.50" of QPF for that part of it after maybe a couple tenths tonight....and the soundings were much more saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Pictures like this fascinate me. I'd like to stand right along that cutoff line during the snow. Face uphill and see snow, or turn around and see rain.It was probably non-accumulating white rain in the parking lot there. In my experience we get a solid 500 feet usually between accums and the termination of flakes. Sometimes as much as 1,000ft between accums and flakes. In that photo if Tower 12 is seeing accums at the top of Exhibition Hill (2,000-2,200ft), those flakes are also making it down to the 1,600ft parking lot there. With that said, snow lines fascinate me to no end. You don't see such a stark snow here, rain there...but why at literally this one imaginary line is snow sticking above that and not below that always intrigued me. You can walk like 50 feet and have snow sticking to grass blades, then go back down 50 feet and it's still snowing with the same intensity, just not sticking. That is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Green-up underway in the Champlain Valley with grasses turning green and buds on some trees. The National Course opened over the weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Had some Snow/sleet on the house when I got home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Green-up underway in the Champlain Valley with grasses turning green and buds on some trees. The National Course opened over the weekend too. Only played VT National twice...and lost a whole lotta balls. So much OB and high grass. Gotta hit those fairways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 24, 2015 Author Share Posted April 24, 2015 Only played VT National twice...and lost a whole lotta balls. So much OB and high grass. Gotta hit those fairways.I hit one of the houses that line the 10th fairway once. Sunk an 80' putt on the 7th, unfortunately it was after I had four putt from the same distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Full blown fizzard outside the Matterhorn Bar and Grill right now in Stowe...despite the radar echoes being more over in BTV land. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Nittany.... do you guys ever notice the MVL ASOS precip amounts sometimes seem "off"? In the winter they are horrific but that's to be expected at ASOS with snow (though MPV and BTV seem to often be much closer to reality), but it seems like off and on MVL comes in lower than one might expect. Like the last 24 hours, that ASOS total stands out like a sore thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 The regional radar looks a bit more impressive than the local BTV radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Only played VT National twice...and lost a whole lotta balls. So much OB and high grass. Gotta hit those fairways. I hit one of the houses that line the 10th fairway once. Sunk an 80' putt on the 7th, unfortunately it was after I had four putt from the same distance. Yeah there's certainly not much wiggle room, very narrow on some of the holes. Those houses do sit really close haha. Cool though how the course winds around through the houses, streams, hills. Nittany.... do you guys ever notice the MVL ASOS precip amounts sometimes seem "off"? In the winter they are horrific but that's to be expected at ASOS with snow (though MPV and BTV seem to often be much closer to reality), but it seems like off and on MVL comes in lower than one might expect. Like the last 24 hours, that ASOS total stands out like a sore thumb. precip.png I have noticed that a couple of times. There are certainly more "reliable" and "unreliable" sites. Like RUT is a freaking joke, but that's an AWOS. MVL does seem to have a couple off days, sometimes that's due to the rain sensor malfunctioning, but we get notified of that. Not really sure why this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Actually snowing pretty good and sticking even below 1,000ft right now here in Stowe. Quick whitening up of cars and mulch/dirt. Good snow growth. Enjoying this last bout of winter haha. Has the feel of a late October evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Yeah there's certainly not much wiggle room, very narrow on some of the holes. Those houses do sit really close haha. Cool though how the course winds around through the houses, streams, hills. I have noticed that a couple of times. There are certainly more "reliable" and "unreliable" sites. Like RUT is a freaking joke, but that's an AWOS. MVL does seem to have a couple off days, sometimes that's due to the rain sensor malfunctioning, but we get notified of that. Not really sure why this time. Yeah I had this discussion a couple summers ago with NASH regarding why MVL was coming in with like half the total precip of surrounding CoCoRAHS stations (like Stowe and Hyde Park putting up 6" summer months while MVL was like 3"), and he couldn't really come up with an answer cause it was passing it's tests. I just notice on those daily climo images because it can really stick out in Lamoille County...and often in like light precip events if like most stations are showing steady -RN with a few hundredths per hour, MVL just puts up like 6-hours worth of Traces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Full blown fizzard outside the Matterhorn Bar and Grill right now in Stowe...despite the radar echoes being more over in BTV land. Interesting. I checked outside and we’ve even got light snow accumulating down here at 500’, so I expect the mountains are doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Actually snowing pretty good and sticking even below 1,000ft right now here in Stowe. Quick whitening up of cars and mulch/dirt. Good snow growth. Enjoying this last bout of winter haha. Has the feel of a late October evening. image.jpg congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Actually snowing pretty good and sticking even below 1,000ft right now here in Stowe. Quick whitening up of cars and mulch/dirt. Good snow growth. Enjoying this last bout of winter haha. Has the feel of a late October evening. image.jpg Unimpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 The regional radar looks a bit more impressive than the local BTV radar... Its straight up dumping. Just drove my spaceship through the galaxy of upslope snow. This was around 1,000ft where its accumulating nicely. You can see its already white on the side of the road there on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 If its doing this on the east side of the Spine, its gotta be nuking on the west side where the echoes and moisture is building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Awesome...the models continue to actually look a bit better for late tomorrow night/early Sat than tonight after somewhat of a lull tomorrow. It looks like the RGEM/GFS/NAM all spit out around 0.4" of QPF on the northern spine tomorrow night/early Sat. RGEM is prob a bit more...it cranks it through most of Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Unimpressed image.jpg Only time my plants have ever felt snow on them. I died a little that night and so did they. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Awesome...the models continue to actually look a bit better for late tomorrow night/early Sat than tonight after somewhat of a lull tomorrow. It looks like the RGEM/GFS/NAM all spit out around 0.4" of QPF on the northern spine tomorrow night/early Sat. RGEM is prob a bit more...it cranks it through most of Saturday. Sweet. Yeah I may stay up a little bit to see how this shakes out. I'm back home and it is still snowing nicely though sticking only to mulch/dirt and cars. Just a few hundred feet up at 1,000ft+ it was sticking nicely to the grass and even the sides of the road. If its doing this down here, the picnic tables are probably having fun in full on mid-winter conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Unimpressed image.jpg Haha yeah after I took that I was like, so what? Late April in northern VT with a tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.