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Anafrontal Thumpul Discussion 3/5


TheSnowman

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Well yeah not getting too crazy yet..but I do feel  fairly confident in 6 inches at  to the Pike. the potential is there for more though

 

There should be an awesome band close to the NW edge of this.  Just a matter of whether or not it gets to I-90 or ACK..lol.

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I'm trying to figure out if it comes in as straight snow or we starts aide and transition to snow. 

 

That also depends on how far north precip gets. Might be all snow...but it wouldn't shock me if it started as a brief mix, especially further south. Inconsequential really.

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This winter has been a three week oasis of epicosity amidst a sea of futility north of the pike.

1960-61 to a T. Big blizzard 12/11-12, then quiet until the 2 week epicosity then cya winter. Yet it's one of the signature winters for me. In the end, it's all about big snowstorms.

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This has all the makings of a weenie band near the nrn edge. Just a matter of where.

 

Although - there's going to be a lot of dry air to contend with from 800mb to sfc on northern edge. The GFS is an absolute toaster bath of BUFKIT with that really dry layer near the sfc even though there's plenty of snow growth taking place around 500hpa. 

 

These setups are always odd. Have good lift way upstairs but down near the ground there's a lot of dry air trying to advect in. 

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Although - there's going to be a lot of dry air to contend with from 800mb to sfc on northern edge. The GFS is an absolute toaster bath of BUFKIT with that really dry layer near the sfc even though there's plenty of snow growth taking place around 500hpa. 

 

These setups are always odd. Have good lift way upstairs but down near the ground there's a lot of dry air trying to advect in. 

Yeah you don't want a virga band either...just a matter of getting it to overlap.  I'm not surprised at the BUFKIT output on the GFS. It struggled to get precip to the pike.

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I'm out in the middle of the runway waving massive Scooter caution flags with this one right now.

06z trends on the American guidance were not inspiring after a status quo on the 00z.

That confluence to the north is really strong. We will hope that the southern energy really trends better at 12z because this one is running out of time.

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This has all the makings of a weenie band near the nrn edge. Just a matter of where.

Agree with this. I just fear a Feb 2010 type cutoff with the confluence. I still wake up in a sweat some nights seeing Tom's River getting pounded while smoking cirrus ten miles north.

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I'm out in the middle of the runway waving massive Scooter caution flags with this one right now.

06z trends on the American guidance were not inspiring after a status quo on the 00z.

That confluence to the north is really strong. We will hope that the southern energy really trends better at 12z because this one is running out of time.

 

Yep, like Bruce Willis in Diehard 2 waving the flag for the plane about to crash. I need to see 12z before getting excited I think. 

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Yeah you don't want a virga band either...just a matter of getting it to overlap.  I'm not surprised at the BUFKIT output on the GFS. It struggled to get precip to the pike.

 

Could turn into a sublimation special in the valley lol. We'll see there's a nice lift/snow growth signal around 450 mb but we need the sub-850 layer to cooperate. If we start advecting in 60% RH in that level it's trouble. 

 

We'll see what happens. Ensembles still bullish. 

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Anytime you have a sharp cutoff...it's important to be a little more cautious.

Don't the ensembles tend to diffuse those sharp gradients? I know they usually make it look better than reality when we are sitting up here on the edge. A few juiced members make it look more widespread than it usually is.

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This seems like a case where you give more weight to the ens than you do the ops. Caution flags will end up buried by the snowplow

I hope so. But that northern stream energy is really crushing. Caution flags remain 100% full mast until there's good agreement that the southern stream over powers it.

We've seen a lot of events tick back SE this year at the last second...doesn't mean it happens this time but you have to understand that this can trend either direction.

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