chris21 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Did anyone else notice the 850's retreat later in the storm. I know that the surface is no good, but its certainly worth noting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 you have high res out that far? Yes... On a closer look, I guess DC does just edge into the SN at 24-27, but it's a mighty fine edge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I was looking at this sim panel. It's right there @ 15z but the gradient sets up before the big push. 15zsim.JPG Nam is either a leader or lost with the 18z run. We'll see. What an awful map. There won't be plain rain anywhere in Northern VA at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes... On a closer look, I guess DC does just edge into the SN at 24-27, but it's a mighty fine edge.... Since no one else seems to be commenting... Basically keeps the precip further west throughout the run... much better for PA, less so for WV. Then the line moves through. ETA - actually, fine for WV, just comes in fits and starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM just too darn amped up...total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150220+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Since no one else seems to be commenting... Basically keeps the precip further west throughout the run... much better for PA, less so for WV. Then the line moves through. No one else has the hi res available out that far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 No one else has the hi res available out that far... Hmmm. Hope I'm not pulling a Praetorian. Pretty sure I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Advisories and Warnings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS is bearish. 1-2 for Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Bullish: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC337 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015MDZ003-501-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-210445-/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.150221T1100Z-150222T1100Z//O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.150221T1100Z-150222T1100Z/WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY337 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY.THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAINSATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTSAT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT UP 10 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OFA TRACE TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM just too darn amped up...total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150220+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Yeah, I doubt that verifies at all. It's like the NAM is trying to parody itself on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Advisories/Warnings out. I'm pretty LWX is going to have to adjust at the advisories based on how they don't make sense between DC south and east compared to the NW suburbs. Typo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 climo and the westward trends of the early thump dictate realistic expectations for the 95 corridor south of PWC to be a sloppy 1"...with a best case scenario of watching some heavy daytime rates and possibly, maybe, if we're lucky and the precip gets in here by 15z at the latest, 2" before a flip to a cold, nasty deluge. daytime snowfall rules. GL you northers. someone pulls a foot out of this, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hmmm. Hope I'm not pulling a Praetorian. Pretty sure I'm not. Hr 27 is the weird panel. Basically, draw a line from Charleston to Morgantown, then follow the potomac to the bay, and that's your snow... crescent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 What an awful map. There won't be plain rain anywhere in Northern VA at 15z. That's just a quirk in the way that map presents. It's not really saying rain (or recording rain as the precip type if you look at the other panels). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I was looking at this sim panel. It's right there @ 15z but the gradient sets up before the big push. 15zsim.JPG Nam is either a leader or lost with the 18z run. We'll see. I can't see how plain rain would be a possibility at 10am tomorrow considering where temps will be tonight.. throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LOL voice of reason from the guy way north who gets nailed. You were a total wreck the last storm... yea, roles are reversed this time...last time I was the one likely to get screwed so I was freaking out, this time its the southern part of the forum. Human nature I am no better then anyone else at controlling emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 4k sucks for DC...not in full fledged mix/snow until 19z and on the precipice even then...flip by 23z....maybe 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS is bearish. 1-2 for Baltimore NAM spooked 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I can't see how plain rain would be a possibility at 10am tomorrow considering where temps will be tonight.. throw it out yes...The NAM didn't suddenly become a great model...It is still a heavily flawed one. the euro shift makes me dubious of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NAM spooked 'em. relying on the NAM for their forecast is a mistake 90% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Updated NWS map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS advisories don't match up with that snowmap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here ya go Parrs Ridge....and Mapgirl too I presume: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC337 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015MDZ005-210445-/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.150221T1400Z-150222T1400Z/CARROLL-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WESTMINSTER337 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZINGRAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAINSATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ATRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.* TIMING...SNOW STARTING SATURDAY MORNING...MIXING WITH AND THENCHANGING TO MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE IN THE EVENING AND THENCHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S EARLY SATURDAY...INCREASING TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON ANDEVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING SATURDAYNIGHT.* WINDS...WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.WEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVELLINGCONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here ya go Parrs Ridge....and Mapgirl too I presume: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 337 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 MDZ005-210445- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.150221T1400Z-150222T1400Z/ CARROLL- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WESTMINSTER 337 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW STARTING SATURDAY MORNING...MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE IN THE EVENING AND THEN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S EARLY SATURDAY... INCREASING TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING SATURDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVELLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Nope. I'm under an Advisory for 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Nope. I'm under an Advisory for 1-2" I mean it would apply to you anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS advisories don't match up with that snowmap... Yeah and that map looks pretty close to what I'd expect tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WWA for Leesburg 1-3" I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah and that map looks pretty close to what I'd expect tomorrow. Looks like the 18Z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I mean it would apply to you anyhow. At some point, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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