Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's really strange how tight guidance has been with time of flip. It's been between 22z and 1z for that last 2 days for the most part. Precip is the key. Earlier the better (cap'n obvious). 18z short range should be fun. Or scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone know what model Wunderground forecasts are based on? Wunderground is predicting 8-12" for Glen Burnie... If you click the gear upper right, you can switch between "BestForecast" and NWS. "BestForecast" being an oxymoron? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Weenie rationalization is the best . I feel like the models were pretty locked in by ~24-36 out last go. main change was qpf differences and the north end shrinking south but the max area stayed pretty similar.. know many (myself included) were initially thinking north drift into end and that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If melting is mitigated sat night - sun before the front clears, a lot of us could have 2 weeks of 75% snowcover South facing areas will get taken down next week no matter what the temps are. Shaded, woods, and north facing are going to look wintry for a while. This winter will go down as quite acceptable in my book if tomorrow performs. I don't require KU's like many. Agree. I'm not really out looking for KU-level events, though of course I'd take one if it happened. My goal is to finish February with this amazing and consistent cold, and have decent chances for at least one more snow event after this Saturday. Maybe it's overly optimistic, but I don't think we're necessarily done after tomorrow. As for tomorrow's event, it's kind of reminiscent to the one last February 12-13. Not on the same level in terms of snow perhaps, but in terms of a great thump of snow for awhile followed by a flip. Plus, that one started out very cold too. I don't remember exactly how much rain fell when it flipped, but I do recall on that Thursday (13th), I got a decent amount of light rain and drizzle. Temps got into the upper 30s before falling later in the day, and even with that and the rain we kept a lot of that snow pack (there was nothing on the ground before that snow, either). Of course, next day after that storm it was pushing 50, whereas in this case we'll be a fair bit colder after the system goes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I feel like the models were pretty locked in by ~24-36 out last go. main change was qpf differences and the north end shrinking south but the max area stayed pretty similar.. know many (myself included) were initially thinking north drift into end and that didn't happen. Last night got dicey with more amp and worse alignment of the shield/progression. Seeing it go back our way today adds a lot of confidence. It's going to be snowing in less than 24 hours and we gained leeway instead of losing it. This is one jacked up way to get a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I feel like the models were pretty locked in by ~24-36 out last go. main change was qpf differences and the north end shrinking south but the max area stayed pretty similar.. know many (myself included) were initially thinking north drift into end and that didn't happen. In general the last storm was way below everyone's expectations. I am thinking this one has a decent chance to at least meet them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This winter will go down as quite acceptable in my book if tomorrow performs. I don't require KU's like many. Absolutely. In fact, if I somehow get a few inches from this I would say this has been the most memorable week of winter for me personally since Feb. 2010. (Not talking about actual snow totals here, but rather the combination of high winds, record cold, repeated snow dustings, the Saturday snow bands and the big storm on President's Day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thanks. I don't do anything unique or special...I just get the euro a bit faster than the wxbell crew. As has always been the case, I analyze the run before I start spewing fine details...All the info comes out anyway...It isn't like it never gets revealed unless some weenie requests it. I don't post much. But I have learned quite a bit from you Matt. Bob C. Also. Thanks man. Just ignore some of idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Should be interesting to see where the SREFs go at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro day 9 looks like a big overruning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 euro day 9 looks like a big overruning event If you like rain. Couple inches of snow before the disaster. +AO/NAO is a beyotch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Absolutely. In fact, if I somehow get a few inches from this I would say this has been the most memorable week of winter for me personally since Feb. 2010. (Not talking about actual snow totals here, but rather the combination of high winds, record cold, repeated snow dustings, the Saturday snow bands and the big storm on President's Day) Yes,the past week or so has been pretty remarkable as it stands now. This February by itself is reminding me of February 2007 in terms of consistent cold. Perhaps it's even colder than 2007 at this point, I'm not sure (I'd guess probably). And I thought that was a memorably good winter month; if we scored the Valentine's Day storm that year, it would have been spectacular. If we do well tomorrow (and even possibly get something mid-late next week), this would out-do Feb. 2007 pretty easily in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Should be interesting to see where the SREFs go at 15z Indeed yoda.. indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you like rain. Couple inches of snow before the disaster. +AO/NAO is a beyotch. LOL! Wasn't it showing a KU event yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you like the RGEM, you're going to love the high-res RGEM. It's still "experimental", and I haven't been paying much attention to it, but it was better than the RGEM on Monday night. I'm not sure if that's because it's really better or because it's just the RGEM run in weenie mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 One more cold week and it's time for a flip. March is a spring month. We'll be tracking t-storms and severe wx before you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you like the RGEM, you're going to love the high-res RGEM. It's still "experimental", and I haven't been paying much attention to it, but it was better than the RGEM on Monday night. I'm not sure if that's because it's really better or because it's just the RGEM run in weenie mode. Did we just get RGEM'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think converted that is calling for 30 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you like the RGEM, you're going to love the high-res RGEM. It's still "experimental", and I haven't been paying much attention to it, but it was better than the RGEM on Monday night. I'm not sure if that's because it's really better or because it's just the RGEM run in weenie mode. That's like 16" for das... crazy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you like the RGEM, you're going to love the high-res RGEM. It's still "experimental", and I haven't been paying much attention to it, but it was better than the RGEM on Monday night. I'm not sure if that's because it's really better or because it's just the RGEM run in weenie mode. 12-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you like rain. Couple inches of snow before the disaster. +AO/NAO is a beyotch. They are both bad tomorrow as well, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That credit goes to leesburg4. I just like the term so much i use it occasionally. We could have comets tomorrow as well. That's all me. Roger that Bob - so long as they are only "comets" and nothing planetary in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Did we just get RGEM'd? looks like a snake attacking us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 If you like rain. Couple inches of snow before the disaster. +AO/NAO is a beyotch. this one has potential. Seems like their is some high pressure to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That's like 16" for das... crazy run Can you convert that to furlongs for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 looks like a snake attacking us Or a metric scale moisture packet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 15z SREFs quick overview 0C 2mT crosses through DCA around 02z 850 temp 0C line crosses through DCA around 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 this one has potential. Seems like their is some high pressure to our north Maybe. But with no blocking there's not much to keep the HP there. Anyhow, it's a week out, that potential has shown up a few times so bears watching. It will be pretty cold next week leading into it, though not at the level of cold we've got now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 One more cold week and it's time for a flip. March is a spring month. We'll be tracking t-storms and severe wx before you know it. Two more weeks would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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