Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Of all people to hug the off hour GFS... I've been saying this now for a few weeks. I think since the upgrade the GFS is better than the Euro with Northern stream systems. I likened it to a girlfriend you've had for a long time that was always there and you could always go back to when you needed it most..but she finally got old and it was time to find someone new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've been saying this now for a few weeks. I think since the upgrade the GFS is better than the Euro with Northern stream systems. I likened it to a girlfriend you've had for a long time that was always there and you could always go back to when you needed it most..but she finally got old and it was time to find someone new. I hope you haven't described it that way to your wife....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've been saying this now for a few weeks. I think since the upgrade the GFS is better than the Euro with Northern stream systems. I likened it to a girlfriend you've had for a long time that was always there and you could always go back to when you needed it most..but she finally got old and it was time to find someone new. I'd like to see a little longer period before I declare it a success, but I've been satisfied so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 All it took was me posting 50s in the temp contest. Lol. It's playing out like my March Madness sheet usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 its a little unnerving not having the same level of confidence in the euro, the gfs was just so strange for so long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 We add to the pack..Not detract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We add to the pack..Not detracthow much though? A few inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 There was some discussion about this yesterday and I came across it in Albany's AFD from early this am so I thought I'd pass it along. SO...INDICATING SNOW BECOMING A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW DURING THEMORNING AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAININ THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM TEMPERATURESGET ON SUNDAY WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEINGFROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CAN HAVE ADIFFICULT TIME MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE HEART OF WINTERWHEN THE GROUND IS EXTREMELY FROZEN WITH DEEP SNOW PACK. SO...GOINGBELOW GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVEFREEZING FROM THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN VT AND POINTSSOUTH AND EAST. UPPER 30S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S COULD SUPPORT PATCHES OFFREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON HOW WARM ALOFT IT CAN GET OVER PARTS OFTHE REGION...AND HOW/IF SNOW PACK KEEPS TEMPERATURES MUCH COLDERTHAN GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 We add to the pack..Not detract With the snap of the whip, A weenie on crack, Front to back, we add to the pack Dig it like a shovel, I ween to a heavenly level Bang the GFS, turn down the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 In snowpack we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 Soon as models sniffed extent of fresh cold they started the shift. Remember this next time you try to rain to Maine in a similar setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 time to revise my contest temps...nice trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 With the snap of the whip, A weenie on crack, Front to back, we add to the pack Dig it like a shovel, I ween to a heavenly level Bang the GFS, turn down the Euro +1. Bloody Mary morning? Have been thinking elevation gradient in these parts for a couple days now. I believe someone here might have mentioned it too. Would guess totals improve above like 700'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Maybe it's the deep snowpack doing it's dirty work? I can't imagine that a 1-foot snow pack verse 3-foot snowpack would make a difference in regards to keeping a system colder, right? Unless its a conservation of energy thing where all the cold has to be sucked out of the pack first before temps can rise...or something along those lines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It's not the snow Kevin. I said that earlier. Look higher up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks how much far south the GEFS have came with the precip. 12z yesterday 6z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can't imagine that a 1-foot snow pack verse 3-foot snowpack would make a difference in regards to keeping a system colder, right? Unless its a conservation of energy thing where all the cold has to be sucked out of the pack first before temps can rise...or something along those lines... You work in Ellsworth? Where the hell is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 another shift or two south and we're partly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'd still be a little mindful of a possible tick back NW again since we are in that timeframe where models shift around a bit. I'm not forecasting that , but don't be surprise if it happens. It can only do so much since we are like 72 hrs out or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 +1. Bloody Mary morning? Have been thinking elevation gradient in these parts for a couple days now. I believe someone here might have mentioned it too. Would guess totals improve above like 700'. I am thinking this trends weaker for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro still looked mostly rainy for ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You work in Ellsworth? Where the hell is that? LOL, no I work in FIT. Just have a rustic family cabin up in Ellsworth. Smallest town in NH (90 people or so?). Its near Stinson Lake in Rumney, due west of Campton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Euro 2m temps look too warm to me. It did this last year around this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LOL, no I work in FIT. Just have a rustic family cabin up in Ellsworth. Smallest town in NH (90 people or so?). Its near Stinson Lake in Rumney, due west of Campton. I know Rumney. Been camping/canoeing on Baker River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 With the snap of the whip, A weenie on crack, Front to back, we add to the pack Dig it like a shovel, I ween to a heavenly level Bang the GFS, turn down the Euro Return of the pack,It is, Return of the pack, Come on, Return of the pack, Oh my god, You know that it'd be back, Here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 LOL, no I work in FIT. Just have a rustic family cabin up in Ellsworth. Smallest town in NH (90 people or so?). Its near Stinson Lake in Rumney, due west of Campton. I've done plenty of drives up Ellsworth hill road. Such a cool remote vibe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Remember when everyone said heavy rain and warmth to Canada about ten times this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've been saying this now for a few weeks. I think since the upgrade the GFS is better than the Euro with Northern stream systems. I likened it to a girlfriend you've had for a long time that was always there and you could always go back to when you needed it most..but she finally got old and it was time to find someone new. Or maybe you get old and she dumps you cuz the viagra doesn't work well enough. Sexist metaphor. You may be trying to hump the GFS but she is giving you the hand and her face ain't listening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Soon as models sniffed extent of fresh cold they started the shift. Remember this next time you try to rain to Maine in a similar setup i wont deny the difference asnowpack can make at the surface and keeping low level cold especially when the system riding west is weak, but these actual weaker/southeast trends are unquestionably due to mid-upper level trends It's not the snow Kevin. I said that earlier. Look higher up. ^ This Look at the differences in just 1 run of the euro valid 00z sunday... 12z 00z ^ faster and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Essentially those weaker/southeast trends of northern stream features were what many here initially expected a couple days ago when models showed the inland solution, weve seen it happen a few times this winter, and combined with snow cover and antecedent cold air mass that comes in prior, you could say it would be difficult to scour out low level cold in NE...but it was hard not to bail when all guidance shifted in the other direction (further west and more amped) yesterday in a large way, and it was getting into the 72-96 hr range... And like Scott said, lets not be all that shocked if they tick back west again today (though i def doubt we see the warm cutter solutions of 12z euro/canadian from yesterday return at this stage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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