Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 this event time of the year is making me sad , this is the time the models season starts trending SE albeit slowly, toward spring though, seen it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro appears to have very little front end for CT as well, outside perhaps the NW hills. Good thing though is that if it is that far west, SNE really misses out on the heavy precip which will help minimize the mess in areas with deep deep pack. If the system goes that far west ...sure... TWC will have to go with winter storm Nadda. Go through this every time .... over and over and over again, yet ...folks still have trouble getting their heads around the idea of how fast a cold thickness becomes a wet one, when you have no inhibition SW flow at all levels, which is what results with big high poorly timed seaward in the llvs, and western deep layer ridge retrograded to 120-130W. 9 at 9am to 40 at 4pm'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I bet my 32-36 inch snowpack goes down to 18 or less by the end of the event. As for the freeze up after.... looks like it'll be a glacier for a few days before the sun angle softens it up and starts eating at it....if the hinted at blizzard/ snowstorm/snow flurries happen next week it will go up a little. Then comes March and meteorological spring where all sorts of things can happen..... but one thing is certain, we have climatologically long since turned the corner--we just got lucky with amazing snow and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think there are two camps who are hoping for a more south east/colder outcome:A - Those that want more snow to break their records.B - Those concerned about flooding and roof collapses due to rain and melting.I'm more in the B camp right now - if the snow has to melt, I'd rather have it done during warmer, clear weather than a sloppy rain storm. Just my two cents. The models continuing to cut this west is concerning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If the system goes that far west ...sure... TWC will have to go with winter storm Nadda. Go through this every time .... over and over and over again, yet ...folks still have trouble getting their heads around the idea of how fast a cold thickness becomes a wet one, when you have no inhibition SW flow at all levels, which is what results with big high poorly timed seaward in the llvs, and western deep layer ridge retrograded to 120-130W. 9 at 9am to 40 at 4pm'er I agree...every year people convince themselves that deep snowpack and low level cold will miraculously overcome large scale forcing. Patterns break down, or in this case, maybe just relax, much easier than people think they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I bet my 32-36 inch snowpack goes down to 18 or less by the end of the event. As for the freeze up after.... looks like it'll be a glacier for a few days before the sun angle softens it up and starts eating at it....if the hinted at blizzard/ snowstorm/snow flurries happen next week it will go up a little. Then comes March and meteorological spring where all sorts of things can happen..... but one thing is certain, we have climatologically long since turned the corner--we just got lucky with amazing snow and cold That part of the annum where days over-achieve that are sunny in the absence of CAA to offset. The solar curve has flipped signs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 this event time of the year is making me sad , this is the time the models season starts trending SE albeit slowly, toward spring though, seen it before haha, Oh c'mon Tippy Tea Kettle, we all know February is a deep deep winter month, mentions of spring and "turning the corner" shouldn't occur until Mid March. Then again...we got soaking depressing ratter rainers up to Pittsburg NH in mid January...so what's to stop this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I agree...every year people convince themselves that deep snowpack and low level cold will miraculously overcome large scale forcing. Patterns break down, or in this case, maybe just relax, much easier than people think they can. In fairness, I've heard this cited by many mets (OK, not the "miraculously" part). I can't count how many times I've read an AFD and come across some variation of "given deep snowpack and cold SSTs, have a hard time buying the warmer scenario." But I understand your overall point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 In fairness, I've heard this cited by many mets (OK, not the "miraculously" part). I can't count how many times I've read an AFD and come across some variation of "given deep snowpack and cold SSTs, have a hard time buying the warmer scenario." But I understand your overall point. Snowpack can help when you have synoptic scale assistance, as well...such as a well positioned high. It isn't going to overcome the absence of that, though. May slow the proccess a hair, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If the system goes that far west ...sure... TWC will have to go with winter storm Nadda. Go through this every time .... over and over and over again, yet ...folks still have trouble getting their heads around the idea of how fast a cold thickness becomes a wet one, when you have no inhibition SW flow at all levels, which is what results with big high poorly timed seaward in the llvs, and western deep layer ridge retrograded to 120-130W. 9 at 9am to 40 at 4pm'er Hell one only has to go back to the polar vortex event last early jan to find an example.. better yet, here's Mid-jan 94, negative temps to 40s everywhere in SNE within 12 hours (including ORH). http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1994/us0117.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro Ens are very meh, can"t believe the panic I am seeing on social media fed by some irresponsible media tweets too. almost as bad as the 30 inch Euro maps posted 4 days in advance. Interesting how the same people who advise against posting snowfall maps are now blogging tweeting rain temp maps with dire consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro Ens are very meh, can"t believe the panic I am seeing on social media fed by some irresponsible media tweets too. almost as bad as the 30 inch Euro maps posted 4 days in advance. Interesting how the same people who advise against posting snowfall maps are now blogging tweeting rain temp maps with dire consequences. Those of us who have been around know the drill snow to ice to drizzle in some places back to snow as ULL passes. Temps stay in low-mid 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Those of us who have been around know the drill snow to ice to drizzle in some places back to snow as ULL passes. Temps stay in low-mid 30's i mean cmon even if its a majority 34 degree rain .5 isn"t going to be an epic disaster. If 6 inches of snow was coming would the roof panic ensue? I know people ALREADY in the hard hit areas should have shoveled their roofs but 6 inches of 10-1 snow weighs as much as .5 rain. I don"t see the need for the hype machine especially 4 days out. I believe it cuts but I think a GFS scenario is likely with front end snow, rain then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I sense ice in my future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I sense ice in my future. Lol I thought of you when the GFS came out, watch the RGEM 2m temp for that, thats its very strongest point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Lol I thought of you when the GFS came out, watch the RGEM 2m temp for that, thats its very strongest point Greenfield to Brattleboro holds on to cold air like MPM clutches his coffee mug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro Ens are very meh, can"t believe the panic I am seeing on social media fed by some irresponsible media tweets too. almost as bad as the 30 inch Euro maps posted 4 days in advance. Interesting how the same people who advise against posting snowfall maps are now blogging tweeting rain temp maps with dire consequences. lol OMG the media says it's going to be icy and rainy instead of all snow. Oh the humanity!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 can"t believe the panic I am seeing on social media fed by some irresponsible media tweets too. almost as bad as the 30 inch Euro maps posted 4 days in advance. Interesting how the same people who advise against posting snowfall maps are now blogging tweeting rain temp maps with dire consequences. Yeah, it's very odd to me the plethora of good meteorologists and forecasters taking a 4-5 day prog to heart right now. This system is far from being set in stone. Although there is an obvious lean to a rainier forecast right now this could change at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You guys...lol. If there is any more precip, roofs, leaks etc all get exacerbated. It's a good idea to warn the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 lol OMG the media says it's going to be icy and rainy instead of all snow. Oh the humanity!!! That is BS Ryan . Its the media who are saying roof collapses , dire emergency, open your eyes. Its a frenzy just like the weenie snow maps. Has not one damn thing to do with no snow, condescend much? Circle your horses, hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 i mean cmon even if its a majority 34 degree rain .5 isn"t going to be an epic disaster. If 6 inches of snow was coming would the roof panic ensue? I know people ALREADY in the hard hit areas should have shoveled their roofs but 6 inches of 10-1 snow weighs as much as .5 rain. I don"t see the need for the hype machine especially 4 days out. I believe it cuts but I think a GFS scenario is likely with front end snow, rain then dry slot. C'mon if another snowstorm was coming the hype machine would be running and I'm sure there would be no objections to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 dumbing down of America, thank god we all have the media to tell us water causes leaks. Why are you so against this? It happens in a snowstorm. Who cares if the media says it will rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why are you so against this? It happens in a snowstorm. Who cares if the media says it will rain? I'm not sure what he is talking about, but it's pretty bad around here. Countless friends have issues..and not just a little water stain on the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 C'mon if another snowstorm was coming the hype machine would be running and I'm sure there would be no objections to it. whats your point? My original point was the same people who complained about hype on snowstorms are now hyping epic disaster from a half inch of 34 degree rain. I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm not sure what he is talking about, but it's pretty bad around here. Countless friends have issues..and not just a little water stain on the ceiling. think they need warning? Its a disaster already , again the original point was anti hypers hyping, thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You guys...lol. If there is any more precip, roofs, leaks etc all get exacerbated. It's a good idea to warn the public. I agree. Could be a hazardous set up and it looks as though it's starting to lean in that direction, so why not get the word out? I mean, this is 4 days....not 7. Yes, it could change, but 4 days is close enough to sound alarms. God knows if modeling was all trending toward another 2' blizzard Sunday, no one would be scrutinized for whistling the warning flute. I do get Steve's point that it will probably only end up being .5" of water, but any significant precip adds insult to injury. He drew the analogy to another 6" of snow, and yes....I think the alarms would be sounded over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Why are you so against this? It happens in a snowstorm. Who cares if the media says it will rain? you missed the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 whats your point? My original point was the same people who complained about hype on snowstorms are now hyping epic disaster from a half inch of 34 degree rain. I just don't get it. So? Now some who love to hype snow are complaining about hype because of rain. You and I both know this wouldn't be discussed if another 4-8" snowstorm was modeled right now and people were freaking out about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 you missed the point You must have a person in mind lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I agree. Could be a hazardous set up and it looks as though it's starting to lean in that direction, so why not get the word out? I mean, this is 4 days....not 7. Yes, it could change, but 4 days is close enough to sound alarms. God knows if modeling was all trending toward another 2' blizzard Sunday, no one would be scrutinized for whistling the warning flute. I do get Steve's point that it will probably only end up being .5" of water, but any significant precip adds insult to injury. He drew the analogy to another 6" of snow, and yes....I think the alarms would be sounded over that. Many people had 3-6 yesterday and perhaps many will tomorrow. I see tweets today that make it seem like its a 96 scenario again, just what I see thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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