40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I have kind of a bad feeling about the EURO...anyone see the UK? Could see this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's time to warn the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Hopefully we can see this trend more sheared out. Nothing amped is good for us with that set up, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's time to warn the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Even if the Euro verified, it would be very difficult to get to 50F pretty much anywhere NW of I-95 from CT to ME. While I'm not fully buying the torch idea, I'm not sure that many areas don't go over to plain rain. Probably most of, if not all of SNE, if I had to place bets now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 LOL Well, anyone claiming this isn't now a realistic possibility is in denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1046 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015VALID 12Z SAT FEB 21 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 25 2015RELIED ON THE FASTER, FLATTER GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH DEFERENCE TO THE PRIMACY OF COLD AIR. MUCH AS THE MODELS THIS TIME LAST WEEKWERE WONT TO LIFT THE CURTAIN OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE TIME FRAME VERIFYING YESTERDAY AND TODAY--WITH A FLATTER, COLDER WAVE THEREALITY--BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR ISSUE EXISTS FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE MSC MEAN--CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN--AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE NATIONTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE JET OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL HELP TO URGE THE CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA NORTHWARD--THE EFFECTS OF BOTH SYSTEMS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ONCE THE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKETS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATIONIS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS.CISCO Heh, good test incoming for Cisco. Although, in his defense, I was thinking about this myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 From RFHPSU As for what will happen with this storm I think odds favor a weaker storm (more like the GFS) which would bring a period of snow followed by icing with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Ground temperatures are cold enough that ice would be an issue on the roads. Most of the GFS ensemble members show this kind of scenario. Bottom line – watch forecasts for this weekend closely. A bit of snow, ice, and rain all appear likely. Hopefully we can avoid getting a big thaw in here – a more gradual thaw is definitely preferable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We are 4 days out in the model world. As we all are fully aware,, modeling does a terrible job of underestimating low level cold and tries blasting warm air way north of where it ends up. If it was Dec or we had no snow cover or the water was warmer..i would have no trouble buying these torch ideas.. I will stand by this..It will end secondarying somewhere near or south of E LI..and track over the far outer Cape or just offshore. I see a 3-6 front end type deal in SNE that goes to ice inland and turns back to snow on Monday. I think the hype of buildings coming down, and vehicles flash freezing on highways while driving is being way way overdone. This will end up a few hours above freezing on tha coast and probably not sniffing above 32 inland So does that mean you're taking the bet? Or are you rejecting it out of pity for me that I don't have a clue? I will say that I've got no problem eating crow should I be wrong on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1046 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015 VALID 12Z SAT FEB 21 2015 - 12Z WED FEB 25 2015 RELIED ON THE FASTER, FLATTER GUIDANCE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH DEFERENCE TO THE PRIMACY OF COLD AIR. MUCH AS THE MODELS THIS TIME LAST WEEK WERE WONT TO LIFT THE CURTAIN OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST TO ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE TIME FRAME VERIFYING YESTERDAY AND TODAY--WITH A FLATTER, COLDER WAVE THE REALITY--BELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR ISSUE EXISTS FOR THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST THIS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE MSC MEAN--CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN--AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE NATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE JET OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL HELP TO URGE THE CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA NORTHWARD--THE EFFECTS OF BOTH SYSTEMS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ONCE THE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST ROCKETS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH MORE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND ENTIRE ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. CISCO Heh, good test incoming for Cisco. Although, in his defense, I was thinking about this myself... People seem to be forgetting this week's storm was modeled to be an inland runner 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm putting my hibiscus on the back porch on Sunday morning so it can catch the warm rain and breezes. It's been locked up in the house since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Luckily it's not that wet verbatim down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 So does that mean you're taking the bet? Or are you rejecting it out of pity for me that I don't have a clue? I will say that I've got no problem eating crow should I be wrong on this. I'm not sure what the bet was since people were talking about a drink that hasn't been in existence for 15+ years, but sure we can make a friendly wager. I have a hard time believing BDL ,HFD torch to 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Cmc looks bad. GFS looks better for ski country. Hopefully this tracks over Albany and not Buffalo. Wouldn't Albany bring the rain closer to all? If it's gonna be a wet scenario wouldn't we want it to head as far west as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Luckily it's not that wet verbatim down here. How much does Euro give The Hydro boys are leaning pretty wet. Not sure their track record http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif... Lets see if Arctic Air can hang tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm not sure what the bet was since people were talking about a drink that hasn't been in existence for 15+ years, but sure we can make a friendly wager. I have a hard time believing BDL ,HFD torch to 34 Maybe a Bartles and James Wine Cooler then? I am pretty sure those are still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 people are spoiled... Since when is 34 a torch late in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 people are spoiled... Since when is 34 a torch late in February Climo is 40 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 people are spoiled... Since when is 34 a torch late in February Not a torch, but warm enough to make it rain. I could care less if it reaches mid-high 30's, or even low 40's in Feb as long as there is no rain associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 people are spoiled... Since when is 34 a torch late in February it would have constituted historic cold in 11-12. Everything's relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 people are spoiled... Since when is 34 a torch late in February I think some are worried (and rightfully so) about something 6-10+ degrees warmer combined with heavy rain. While it's not a likely scenario, it's something that's on the table that would have a huge impact with 30-45" of snow OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 people are spoiled... Since when is 34 a torch late in February Yes the GFS has backed WAY off on temperatures since the 0z run. Yes I know the exact hours aren't the same, but I picked the "warmest" hours for the storm to illustrate, since the timing of when the low passes west continue to fluctuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm not sure what the bet was since people were talking about a drink that hasn't been in existence for 15+ years, but sure we can make a friendly wager. I have a hard time believing BDL ,HFD torch to 34 If all 8 major CT climo stations reach at least 34 degrees this weekend, you pimp my blog on FB and Twitter. I was offering a 12-pack of beer if any site fails to reach 34...but it can really be any beverage of your choosing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 If all 8 major CT climo stations reach at least 34 degrees this weekend, you pimp my blog on FB and Twitter. I was offering a 12-pack of beer if any site fails to reach 34...but it can really be any beverage of your choosing.Ok sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If all 8 major CT climo stations reach at least 34 degrees this weekend, you pimp my blog on FB and Twitter. I was offering a 12-pack of beer if any site fails to reach 34...but it can really be any beverage of your choosing. lol into thinking that by aligning with Kevin = connecting with some super social magnet whose very presence will spread the word to millions. I will like your FB page for zero beers. Tell me how to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 lol into thinking that by aligning with Kevin = connecting with some super social magnet whose very presence will spread the word to millions. I will like your FB page for zero beers. Tell me how to find it. check his sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Jesus, some of you are acting like this is Ebola. If it warms..it warms. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Embrace the flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 lol into thinking that by aligning with Kevin = connecting with some super social magnet whose very presence will spread the word to millions. I will like your FB page for zero beers. Tell me how to find it. Just got your invite after I liked them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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