Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's not that different then the 6z, just a little more consolidated which is probably good because it means less rain. We will see.I mean with your gut on 32 line staying near coast with snow to ice to snow . That IMO is a very good thought process based on the set up. It will not be all snow but all even coast will leave with a net gain and add some much needed ice to the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I mean with your gut on 32 line staying near coast with snow to ice to snow . That IMO is a very good thought process based on the set up. It will not be all snow but all even coast will leave with a net gain and add some much needed ice to the pack I couldsee 35F for many with ZR on the roads with such cold pavement temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I mean with your gut on 32 line staying near coast with snow to ice to snow . That IMO is a very good thought process based on the set up. It will not be all snow but all even coast will leave with a net gain and add some much needed ice to the pack It's probably going to be warmer a bit further NW then that. I said it would be closer to 32 near the storm track, not coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's probably going to be warmer a bit further NW then that. I said it would be closer to 32 near the storm track, not coast. Syracuse to Burlington low track doesn't scream 32F on the coast to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's probably going to be warmer a bit further NW then that. I said it would be closer to 32 near the storm track, not coast.Well you said it would track near CC.. And let's not forget weak secondary with weak Ageo drain. Lots to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Syracuse to Burlington low track doesn't scream 32F on the coast to me lol Yeah, but it almost has the look of being baggy over the deep interior. I mean a low with that track and barely 546 thicknesses? Plus it is weak. I almost envision the interior being calm at like 32 if you know what I mean. That is, if the storm is not stronger. Obviously a stronger low and all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well you said it would track near CC.. And let's not forget weak secondary with weak Ageo drain. Lots to look at I don't know...whatever. I could care less right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Rain at 34F is a whole different ball game in terms of flooding than rain at 50F I think weight on roofs is the bigger concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It's the urban street flooding you guys have to worry about. I suspect catch basins and storm drains are clogged with snow. Won't take much rain to cause a traffic disaster. Halifax had 15mm on sunday and some roads were 2-3' deep. I was surprised even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, but it almost has the look of being baggy over the deep interior. I mean a low with that track and barely 546 thicknesses? Plus it is weak. I almost envision the interior being calm at like 32 if you know what I mean. That is, if the storm is not stronger. Obviously a stronger low and all bets are off. Yeah really depends on how strong that thing gets. Hires GFS is really wet for the S coast - almost looks like as the front gets hung up near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Syracuse to Burlington low track doesn't scream 32F on the coast to me lol That lead wave really warms the BL. There is just no mechanism that I see that can keep places below 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah really depends on how strong that thing gets. Hires GFS is really wet for the S coast - almost looks like as the front gets hung up near the shore. Yeah like the LLJ and mass convergence is there. That's what I was seeing too. Let it stay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think weight on roofs is the bigger concern No question about that. GFS surface temps don't seem to break the mid 30s for the interior. Let's hope this turns out to be a very low precipitation event. Higher temps with higher precip will crash roofs then flood us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS looks like a mess for just about all of New England at this point. Still not buying that track yet though. Definitely mix/rain for most of the coastal plain regardless of track. Hopefully it ends up weaker and doesn't cause any flooding or sudden pack melt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That lead wave really warms the BL. There is just no mechanism that I see that can keep places below 32F. The interior out past 495 will be I bet. Unless this turns into a strong low, I bet many places rot at like 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 That lead wave really warms the BL. There is just no mechanism that I see that can keep places below 32F. Yeah GFS doesn't get that warm... like 33-35 inland but it's definitely rain/zr after the initial snow. CF kind of gets stuck along the coast and it never penetrates inland much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 This does not scream "snow" to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You guys are missing the point. Its not like that track is set in stone. Could tick either way and if its SE it will get icy. I don't think anyone is arguing the modeled output as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah GFS doesn't get that warm... like 33-35 inland but it's definitely rain/zr after the initial snow. CF kind of gets stuck along the coast and it never penetrates inland much. Yup, a nice cold rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 You guys are missing the point. Its not like that track is set in stone. Could tick either way and if its SE it will get icy. I don't think anyone is arguing the modeled output as of now The track has not changed all that much over the last 3 runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Let's hope weak and low precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GFS up close, the 34F isotherm has a tough time making it north. By this panel, 18z, most of the precipitation had already fallen. As Ryan said, marginal 2m temperatures could still lead to an icy mess on the surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yup, a nice cold rainer. Not an "ice storm" but probably a mess on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not an "ice storm" but probably a mess on the roads.As Bob said, a kitchen sink look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I don't see a huge gradient with the CF either for a fairly weak storm, SST's are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 If you go into this inland thinking.. snow to ice to snow and coast... snow to ice to light rain to snow....that's the way to lean for now Knowing models struggle to handle low level cold..knowing there's a weak low and ageo drain..knowing theres 2-4 feet OTG.. we;ve seen this before many..many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If you go into this inland thinking.. snow to ice to snow and coast... snow to ice to light rain to snow....that's the way to lean for now The storm sucks. We'll get some snow and then we'll change over to a cold rain. If this gets you going - have at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As Bob said, a kitchen sink look It's just what we don't need. Messy on the roads. Adds weight to already overloaded structures. Drainage issues. See if we can keep "wet" duration down below 6-8hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 And then there is the Canadian. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 And then there is the Canadian. Oh boy. How often does that come out? Sure would like to see that one go more in the direction of the GFS... Would warm us up to near 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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