ApacheTrout Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 the 6-foot snow pack (and the 100 foot layer of cold air above it) in the Boston to Portland corridor is a huge magnet and pulls all weather systems toward it. It's a quantum thingie. Somehow, those lows sauntering across Texas and the clippers slashing across Manitoba know there's a dance floor near the bench mark, a place to boogie and boom into a coastal. It's like the music is playing and somehow Kevin Bacon always shows up. It's quantum, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Essentially those weaker/southeast trends of northern stream features were what many here initially expected a couple days ago when models showed the inland solution, weve seen it happen a few times this winter, and combined with snow cover and antecedent cold air mass that comes in prior, you could say it would be difficult to scour out low level cold in NE...but it was hard not to bail when all guidance shifted in the other direction (further west and more amped) yesterday in a large way, and it was getting into the 72-96 hr range... And like Scott said, lets not be all that shocked if they tick back west again today (though i def doubt we see the warm cutter solutions of 12z euro/canadian from yesterday return at this stage) nam is anything but a tick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've done plenty of drives up Ellsworth hill road. Such a cool remote vibe. Nice, wonder if I've ever seen you drive by Its not a bad drive from MA which is nice, plus the place gets much more snow than the valley down in Plymouth. K back on topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nam is really far south and weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Essentially those weaker/southeast trends of northern stream features were what many here initially expected a couple days ago when models showed the inland solution, weve seen it happen a few times this winter, and combined with snow cover and antecedent cold air mass that comes in prior, you could say it would be difficult to scour out low level cold in NE...but it was hard not to bail when all guidance shifted in the other direction (further west and more amped) yesterday in a large way, and it was getting into the 72-96 hr range... And like Scott said, lets not be all that shocked if they tick back west again today (though i def doubt we see the warm cutter solutions of 12z euro/canadian from yesterday return at this stage) Only the mets wavered, not Kevin. I think we return to the snow north, mix central. change to rain south which was being advertised a couple ddays ago. I find that happens alot, that we find our way back to the day 6-7 signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 nam is anything but a tick west You arent kidding Ginxy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 You arent kidding Ginxy lol. Hey thats a serious ice storm in the south, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Only the mets wavered, not Kevin. I think we return to the snow north, mix central. change to rain south which was being advertised a couple ddays ago. I find that happens alot, that we find our way back to the day 6-7 signal Yeah i definitely waivered after the 12z's yesterday Though in terms of returning to the day 6-7 solutions as we get closer, the last event this week did anything but that, and was the basis for Kev holding firm on the southeast solution this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hey thats a serious ice storm in the south, yikes 2-3 inches of ice, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah i definitely waivered after the 12z's yesterday Though in terms of returning to the day 6-7 solutions as we get closer, the last event this week did anything but that, and was the basis for Kev holding firm on the southeast solution true, but i think that happens sometimes...the give an early, get confused, and then return to early signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 true, but i think that happens sometimes...the give an early, get confused, and then return to early signal. I notice that with a lot of the blockbuster storms..strong signal for KU days 5-9ish, then they lose it on guidance, and bring it back within 1-3 day range Examples off the top of my head are Boxing day 2010, Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I notice that with a lot of the blockbuster storms..strong signal for KU days 5-9ish, then they lose it on guidance, and bring it back within 1-3 day range Examples off the top of my head are Boxing day 2010, Jan 2005. The blizzard this year appeared out of nowhere like 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian has been pretty consistent with this system. It's made some shifts N & S but no wild swings, we'll see what it does at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hasn't the GEM run the full gamut of snowstorm to torching rainstorm with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian has been pretty consistent with this system. It's made some shifts N & S but no wild swings, we'll see what it does at 12z. I'd argue the exact opposite. It went from a warning level snowstorm to a massive cutter to a weak frontal wave that brings light/moderate rain/snow in three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'd argue the exact opposite. It went from a warning level snowstorm to a massive cutter to a weak frontal wave that brings light/moderate rain/snow in three runs. Agree with violence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The blizzard this year appeared out of nowhere like 60 hours out LOL yeah that was a notable exception for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 well the reason I stayed strong about this not cutting and torching was about the press of cold. You just aren't going to warm, rain and torch when you've got that kind of setup. I went back and thought about many other times models warmed and cut and then came south and cold. Mets is there a chance we get nothing out of this at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 the 6-foot snow pack (and the 100 foot layer of cold air above it) in the Boston to Portland corridor is a huge magnet and pulls all weather systems toward it. It's a quantum thingie. Somehow, those lows sauntering across Texas and the clippers slashing across Manitoba know there's a dance floor near the bench mark, a place to boogie and boom into a coastal. It's like the music is playing and somehow Kevin Bacon always shows up. It's quantum, baby. Dance floor near the benchmark. ... Ha, awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 well the reason I stayed strong about this not cutting and torching was about the press of cold. You just aren't going to warm, rain and torch when you've got that kind of setup. I went back and thought about many other times models warmed and cut and then came south and cold. Mets is there a chance we get nothing out of this at all? I thought you were a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 We add , we glaciate, we lock pack into April @MattNoyesNECN: Quick look at cursory weekend parameters indicates a mess for New England - huge concern is rooftop load http://t.co/DINoddivm5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 well the reason I stayed strong about this not cutting and torching was about the press of cold. You just aren't going to warm, rain and torch when you've got that kind of setup. I went back and thought about many other times models warmed and cut and then came south and cold. Mets is there a chance we get nothing out of this at all? if cold is what draws it east, what about the cold here in Vermont? It's been even colder here in Vermont than in southern New England. Or for that matter, the cold in Montreal. That would have just as much of a press, if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 if cold is what draws it east, what about the cold here in Vermont? It's been even colder here in Vermont than in southern New England. Or for that matter, the cold in Montreal. That would have just as much of a press, if not more.When you have a fresh true arctic air mass come in, you aren't going to just shove it out of the way and cut a storm north into Buffalo,not without some sort of secondary reflection locking in ageo drain. Add in cold ocean and feet of snow OTG.. To me it was a no brainier despite models yesterday. Except the Gfs which saw it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS looks like snow thump followed by ice/kitchen sink, then precip rides along the wave with 33-34F temps. Not much backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 When you have a fresh true arctic air mass come in, you aren't going to just shove it out of the way and cut a storm north into Buffalo,not without some sort of secondary reflection locking in ageo drain. Add in cold ocean and feet of snow OTG.. To me it was a no brainier despite models yesterday. Except the Gfs which saw it EHH if you have a shortwave like yesterdays 12z runs showed cutting into the great lakes, i dont care what type of glacier you have on the ground, it will taint...clearly though they are backing off and weakening the feature here, and you could be right in that it is all tied into the polar field over central/eastern NA being realized stronger and stringing the energy out more as it ejects northeastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS minimizes the taint considerably. Net gain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 EHH if you have a shortwave like yesterdays 12z runs showed cutting into the great lakes, i dont care what type of glacier you have on the ground, it will taint...clearly though they are backing off and weakening the feature here, and you could be right in that it is all tied into the polar field over central/eastern NA being realized stronger and stringing the energy out more as it ejects northeastwardYeah man.. I'm not saying the snowpack made it happen . I'm saying that was one of several components needed to help force this south and to not amplify. Plus I posted this yesterday, but we saw this even back when winter sucked this season of systems de amping as we got closer. I was kind of surprised yesterday that some of the gurus around here were so steadfast on a mild Rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would take the freezing rain here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow I don't know what everybody is so excited about as the GFS is Still very warm for me. 1-2 inches of snow and then 0.8" of Rain. I'm above at 850, 925, And surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Wow I don't know what everybody is so excited about as the GFS is Still very warm for me. 1-2 inches of snow and then 0.8" of Rain. I'm above at 850, 925, And surface. People are excited because models had taint in VT/NH/ME 24 hours ago. Now that line is barely north of RI/SE MA, and continues to trend south and east. I think we get mix in the coastal plain regardless - it's no longer trying to drive 40-45 degree temperatures where common sense said they wouldn't be in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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