swimmatte Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lol..cant believe were all up Of course we are, this seems to have become our once in a lifetime storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 06z GFS is 0.5" for DC, maybe a bit more. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 06z GFS is 0.5" for DC, maybe a bit more. I'll take it! 12 hours from start time.... I guess it's good it didn't completely go away, but not sure how much we care about the GFS at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's a little more amped. You could see it on the 500mb. Amazing that this thing is 12 hours away and the GFS is still changing at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z RGEM looks similar to 0z. ~0.5" for DC. Brutal cutoff just north of DC. I'd like to see it bump north a tad honestly. 6z GFS matches the Euro and UKIE for DC - 0.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 3z SREF Plumes were good for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z RGEM looks similar to 0z. ~0.5" for DC. Brutal cutoff just north of DC. I'd like to see it bump north a tad honestly. 6z GFS matches the Euro and UKIE for DC - 0.6". All my initial fears realized. Oh well, i guess ive still got the cold to hang onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 For godssake, buck up. I am in the same potential screw zone as those north of bwi, but it's time to stop worrying over it and watch radar. I think we can score at least four of cold powder up here which will be a lot of fun. We went watch to warning for the first time this year, and now need to verify it. Fingers crossed. Time to stop complaining. it all comes down to how fast that vort in SE Canada moves out the faster it does, the more qpf 12Z could go either way, but it won't won't be by a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 All my initial fears realized. Oh well, i guess ive still got the cold to hang onto. ? You're still getting snow. GFS gives you 0.3" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Final call. No real changes in our region, except slightly lower totals in southeastern VA near the NC border. If you squint, you may have noticed the 8-12" line move a couple of miles closer to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 All my initial fears realized. Oh well, i guess ive still got the cold to hang onto. Solid 4-6 nothing for you to worry about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 FWIW, 06z NAM pretty much held course, if not just a tiny bit less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Obs and Nowcasting: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45751-february-16th-17th-obs-nowcasting/ Mods, please pin when you have the time, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey guys, hope you get a good one. Good luck and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z looked good. NAM basically remained the same other than noise and GFS improves to bring it in line with EURO and UKIE for .6 precip or more. Time to radar watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z looked good. NAM basically remained the same other than noise and GFS improves to bring it in line with EURO and UKIE for .6 precip or more. Time to radar watch. Here you go! http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF plumes are encouraging for N/C MD, DC and upper Eastern Shore. liquid: ILG 0.55 DOV 0.7 BWI 0.65 DCA 0.75 IAD 0.65 FDH 0.52 HGR 0.4 THV 0.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF plumes are encouraging for N/C MD, DC and upper Eastern Shore. liquid: ILG 0.55 DOV 0.7 BWI 0.65 DCA 0.75 IAD 0.65 FDH 0.52 HGR 0.4 THV 0.38 Do you have Westminster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR thinks the GFS is pretty damn smart for having that area of lower totals west of DC. At least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think the dry air out this way is gonna be a bear. It keeps showing a nose of dry air that lowers the precip about .15 to .25 inches. We have to take note. that is western Loudoun/ Winchester areas and up into Frederick County Md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The high-res RGEM continues to look better than the RGEM for the area around Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 HRRR thinks the GFS is pretty damn smart for having that area of lower totals west of DC. At least initially. disregard the HRRR it jumps around like this all the time RAP says otherwise by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey guys, hope you get a good one. Good luck and enjoy. thx bro be sure to post some of those pretty maps (but only if they look good!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 9z SREFs 0.5" line along the MD border. 1" in SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like the few hours before and after 1am will have the best rates. It's a pretty sharp drop in VVs north of DCA. We'll see if the 12z nam moves the area of best lift. S MD/Northern Neck/Central VA are going to get raked good for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think the dry air out this way is gonna be a bear. It keeps showing a nose of dry air that lowers the precip about .15 to .25 inches. We have to take note. that is western Loudoun/ Winchester areas and up into Frederick County the last pd storm in 2003 had air temps of 10 degrees and we got 2ft of snow in an over running event, alaska is colder and they get monster storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Looks like the few hours before and after 1am will have the best rates. It's a pretty sharp drop in VVs north of DCA. We'll see if the 12z nam moves the area of best lift. S MD/Northern Neck/Central VA are going to get raked good for a while. vvs.JPG aint going to worry about it we get what we get, enjoy the storm!! btw very interesting exhibit you have there also thanks for all the effort you put into this board. I personally enjoy reading your thoughts . Many thanks from me. Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My thinking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 My thinking: snowfallmap.jpg I think you underdid DC a little, high upside potential especially with the Euro and NAM spitting out 0.6" of QPF and more. Everything else looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 6z high res rgem. In line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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