Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Kev we'll eventually acknowledge objective guidance. Noone here is taking objective guidance with this one.You just can't. Well "you" can..but most of us are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is a storm where you pull out the ol' 8-16" range from the 1990s...and don't apologize for it. LOL. I know, but it almost applies here. I know at work(I'm not there) they were thinking 8-12 this morning for Logan. Probably a good starting point even after the euro came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Noone here is taking objective guidance with this one.You just can't. Well "you" can..but most of us are notYou can't always weenie wishcast either. It's important to ask yourself why models spit out the solutions that they have. Models are pretty good, so if there are disagreements....you have to look at the how and why. Sometimes you can toss them, but it's important to have a good feel on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You can't always weenie wishcast either. It's important to ask yourself why models spit out the solutions that they have. Models are pretty good, so if there are disagreements....you have to look at the how and why. Sometimes you can toss them, but it's important to have a good feel on the situation. Totally agree..Which is why I think 6 to as much as 12 could fall here. I don't feel overly confident in either amount. But we've never seen in recorded history a 500mb low this strong come off around ACY..so we really do not know exactly what is going to happen and using model qpf might be the worst thing to use for this particular case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Noone here is taking objective guidance with this one.You just can't. Well "you" can..but most of us are not I will absolutely side with you that there could be major surprises You can't however, champion mid level track's without looking at the strength of the Mid level lows. From what i gather from Will and Scott's posts is , They will already be challenged with regard to generating tight inflow so there strength seems paramount in this situation, add to it the fact a quicker bombing mid level low will help Tuck Surface low in tight and many join the real party. So long as models don't trend weaker with mid level lows (euro may have...but all I heard was it wasn't as strong as GFS) I think this could be a now cast with regard to that aspect, thou that is a difficult thing to hang your hat on with a ton of optimism, other than just knowing and hoping a fuse is lit on that 7H center as it passes off the coast of NJ. It would appear to me the Further NE you are in Mass the less correction stronger in Mid level low inflow you would need to get moisture bent back at an angle sufficient to bury you. I.E Newburyport may already be fine in a Euro type set up. Of course there will be other surprises as well and I can't tell you I would be shocked if you got over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Watervapor imagery looks really cool. One powerhouse storm wrapping up northeast of Nova Scotia and another pronounced swirl droppping SSE from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Noone here is taking objective guidance with this one.You just can't. Well "you" can..but most of us are notBlah dee blah blah. You're always on the side of the coldest snowiest solutions anyway Kev as if we didn't think you're on the overperforming side of the audience. Good reason to be negative with this one esp for ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I will absolutely side with you that there could be major surprises You can't however, champion mid level track's without looking at the strength of the Mid level lows. From what i gather from Will and Scott's posts is , They will already be challenged with regard to generating tight inflow so there strength seems paramount in this situation, add to it the fact a quicker bombing mid level low will help Tuck Surface low in tight and many join the real party. So long as models don't trend weaker with mid level lows (euro may have...but all I heard was it wasn't as strong as GFS) I think this could be a now cast with regard to that aspect, thou that is a difficult thing to hang your hat on with a ton of optimism, other than just knowing and hoping a fuse is lit on that 7H center as it passes off the coast of NJ. It would appear to me the Further NE you are in Mass the less correction stronger in Mid level low inflow you would need to get moisture bent back at an angle sufficient to bury you. I.E Newburyport may already be fine in a Euro type set up. Of course there will be other surprises as well and I can't tell you I would be shocked if you got over a foot of snow. Yes, the rate of deepening is very important...the track is too, but you still need the center of it deepening rapidly. Euro was kind of mundane on this...it was deepening no doubt, but not as impressive as some other solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 But we've never seen in recorded history a 500mb low this strong come off around ACY..so we really do not know exactly what is going to happen and using model qpf might be the worst thing to use for this particular case. If that's the case, then you would expect guidance to latch onto higher qpf outputs we get closer. If guidance keeps consistently showing lackluster qpf as we get closer, you would have to give it more and more credence that it's doing so for good reason. Especially if ALL guidance is doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Totally agree..Which is why I think 6 to as much as 12 could fall here. I don't feel overly confident in either amount. But we've never seen in recorded history a 500mb low this strong come off around ACY..so we really do not know exactly what is going to happen and using model qpf might be the worst thing to use for this particular case. I think both bounds could be extended. Definitely could be lower if meso convergence stays west and coastal wraparound stays east. Could also be higher if some of the bigger GFS runs/ensembles are right and if ratios are very high: .8 x 20:1 = 16" I would start at 5-7 and monitor radar/satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 15z NMM is a good example of how some strange intense banding could happen with a rapidly deepening ML center just to our south...see that area over RI which is a bit seperate from the main CCB in E MA later on http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is there a chance that given the anomalous situation the models could be struggling with it? Doesn't the GFS handle northern streamers well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Someone on fbook just posted a wbz accumulation map 20-30" all of EMA. I'm mobile right now but that can't possibly be a map for this storm. Can anyone post wbz map? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Someone on fbook just posted a wbz accumulation map 20-30" all of EMA. I'm mobile right now but that can't possibly be a map for this storm. Can anyone post wbz map? Thx It's almost undoubtedly a repost of the blizzard map from a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twaldman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's almost undoubtedly a repost of the blizzard map from a couple weeks ago. Seems to be a reccurring theme on social media ever since the blizzard...someone reposts the Blizzard maps with a new date on the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blah dee blah blah. You're always on the side of the coldest snowiest solutions anyway Kev as if we didn't think you're on the overperforming side of the audience. Good reason to be negative with this one esp for ct. No there's actually not. Your posts always seem to somehow find a way for NE Mass to get the most snow. It never fails. Today's another example. What reason can you give for west of BOS too be negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z nam trying to force this even further offshore initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's almost undoubtedly a repost of the blizzard map from a couple weeks ago. I figured that much. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think both bounds could be extended. Definitely could be lower if meso convergence stays west and coastal wraparound stays east. Could also be higher if some of the bigger GFS runs/ensembles are right and if ratios are very high: .8 x 20:1 = 16" I would start at 5-7 and monitor radar/satellite. Personally I don't think the GFS is right..just like I don't think the Euro or any model has it nailed down. If there's a case for just watching how things play out and giving a large spread of amounts in a forecast..and tell people you really don't know exactly what to expect..this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No there's actually not. Your posts always seem to somehow find a way for NE Mass to get the most snow. It never fails. Today's another example. What reason can you give for west of BOS too be negative? How dare Jay forecast NE Mass to get the most snow. Only has the agreement of virtually every model with him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 No there's actually not. Your posts always seem to somehow find a way for NE Mass to get the most snow. It never fails. Today's another example. What reason can you give for west of BOS too be negative? I'll give you a couple All models cutting back on QPF except GFS which has been too wet on a couple of events this winter. General trend of MillerB's to form a bit further east of modeled resulting in the fringes of the best QPF often missing out Dry air potentially limiting returns on the NW side of the precip shield Double barrel low consolidating into the eastern low as we approach go time as some models suggest and the end result is a light event. Strong consensus on the best banding favoring EMA up into ME with a possible secondary jackpot of SECT/LI from the IVT I have 4-8" for you right now and think that's a very solid forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'll give you a couple All models cutting back on QPF except GFS which has been too wet on a couple of events this winter. General trend of MillerB's to form a bit further east of modeled resulting in the fringes of the best QPF often missing out Dry air potentially limiting returns on the NW side of the precip shield Double barrel low consolidating into the eastern low as we approach go time as some models suggest and the end result is a light event. Strong consensus on the best banding favoring EMA up into ME with a possible secondary jackpot of SECT/LI from the IVT I have 4-8" for you right now and think that's a very solid forecast. Thanks Jay. Sound reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blizzard warnings and WSW's just issued. Congrats everyone. Let the fun begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z nam trying to force this even further offshore initially Looks wacky between 03z-06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks Jay. Sound reasons Kev, I think the feature least talked about but with the best % chance of causing you to get buried, will most likely be the INV trough feature. I think there is a better shot given guidance that you over-perform from that, and not from the CCB or some TROWEL feature extending wayyyy back. But i'm just a weenie. I haven't heard much talk regarding potential with the inv. trough in CT/RI but it seems right before any back lash may get cranking in NE mass/SE NH that there will be a inv trough feature hitting someone. Most times it has been mentioned has been in reference to it "screwing" with E mass totals or the storm in general, but I am curious what mets think the potential is with this feature to over-perform in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GYX supersizing for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Blizzard Warnings are up now in Eastern Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wsw 6-10 with high winds woot woot what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GYX went Blizzard Warnings up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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