Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern does not support a significant east coast storm! I'm not sure how many in here were expecting this event to be a significant or major East Coast storm (well, maybe some were!). Most I think were keeping expectations in check and hoping for something perhaps a bit more than the clipper system back in January. In fact, before this big move south, many were just hoping for something halfway decent on the "front end" before a flip to rain/sleet/ice. I don't think anyone would have seriously expected we'd be shut out like the 06Z GFS shows. In the end, I don't think we'll get totally shut out, and think a light, cold event (1-3", 2-4") is still well in play. Not guaranteeing that, but I think it's reasonable to keep that on the table especially with what the GEFS shows. Anything more than that, at this point, no way...unless things change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Actually the GFS ensemble runs on 06z look the best I've seen. There has got to be a correction to the north coming why? there may be a shift but the pattern is the pattern. Now the OP not agreeing with ENS means there is still uncertainty but that could be a few great solutions skewing the mean....I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Actually the GFS ensemble runs on 06z look the best I've seen. There has got to be a correction to the north coming Maybe, but I'd hesitate to think that means a correction north has "got" to happen. The 12Z ensembles yesterday were gung-ho in line with the ops during that spectacular run, and look how that changed in a short time. However, there still is plenty of uncertainty, to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z GEFS mean is WAY north of the 6z GFS. And based on the individual members, it's not being unduly biased by 1 or 2 outliers. There's even a warm rainer on the GEFS. That said, 0z EPS sucks. gfs_z500_mslp_us_20.png gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_20.png This is what I was mentioning earlier. There's a good number of them that are good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Everyone should have expected the 6z not to look good... Let's see what the 12z suite has in store. OK, explain why please. I'm eager to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 it's nice seeing trends but seems like these are significant trends...which may not end this run. we want things to start locking in soon or else we could end up with a fish no storm. i still want the euro to trend good this run, though lol. fixed. sorry if my original post was misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern. No support all year It may be THE pattern, but it doesn't explain model swings. As of yesterday morning the PATTERN see by the models and the data they had at that time allowed a storm to exist here. After new data ingestion, the models no longer saw a pattern that would allow a storm. The conditions modeled for Sunday through Wed don't exist.......they are a projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I never get credit for anything :< You get credit when you are wrong. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Do you want someone who will tell you the truth? Or do you want joe bastardi? Of course the former. But I'd be equally dubious of someone telling us at this lead time and in this pattern that a big hit was a "lock". You know as well as i do that few things are definitive - especially in the context of the current pattern - 5 days out. I have zero problem with bad news or with forecasts of no snow - but I'm always going to raise an eyebrow at someone telling us they "know" what is going to happen with 100% certainty. And then compounding that questionable approach by getting all chesty about it and bragging about his past predictions. That's just another version of Joe Bastardi. Giving him "credit" for "making a call and sticking with it" is exactly the opposite of what we should be doing. One of the reasons we all love and appreciate Wes so much is because, optimism or pessimism, he is modest and realistic in what he sees. He freely acknowledges the limits of his thinking, and is careful to include disclaimers and to stick to pointing out positive or negative patterns when we are still several days away from an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I never get credit for anything :< I thought the points you articulated yesterday about the northern stream becoming dominant vs previous runs and the progression of the front running/trailing vort getting squished were spot on. The trouble started when the solution was trending towards an unconsolidated 2 piece kind of deal and not a single vort digging like what was being shown before. The 12z nam yesterday was the first to show the front running piece speeding up. I wasn't sure that was a good thing because anything coming our way too early was going to have a hard time working out because of the strong confluence in place. Without consolidated energy, the main show wasn't going to deepen as quickly and turn the corner. At the time I wasn't too worried because as long as the trailing/stronger vort could get decent slp going along the deep south, there wasn't anything to keep it from turning early enough. As depicted now, it gets going too late. I'm glad I didn't stay up for the euro. lol. We'll see how it goes. Shorter term trends this year have eased up on heights and trended towards more amplification. Still may not work out enough for a big hit but I sure don't want to get flat out whiffed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm definatley not a pro forecaster here, just learning over the years like you guys. I will say though all the ensemble runs are north on Canadian, GEFS and Euro. Plus the "less respected" models stil cannot be written off, such as the JMA, NAVY and dgex all show a nice storm for the area. Also the winter trend has drawn most storms back to the north this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 heh Hey at least everyone gets snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeoman - that map is amazing, hehe. 2014-2015 in a nutshell (nutshot?) for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey at least everyone gets snow lol thats a big middle finger to this whole subforum. Would be fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 heh Looks like I may snow chase to my mom's house down near MYR. In all seriousness, I wouldn't write this thing off until at least 0z Sunday. Have we seen anything suppressed this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 North trend. And NAM shall lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like I may snow chase to my mom's house down near MYR. In all seriousness, I wouldn't write this thing off until at least 0z Sunday. Have we seen anything suppressed this winter? This. I'm still worried we end up being rained on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like I may snow chase to my mom's house down near MYR. In all seriousness, I wouldn't write this thing off until at least 0z Sunday. Have we seen anything suppressed this winter? Saturday is my point of no return. If nothing good by 12z Saturday... Punt it and look for the next 10 days fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Punt it and look for the next 10 days fantasy storm. Sometimes the light at the end of the tunnel is a train. spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 you can already see the 12z NAM is a fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I take pride that I'm not on here going... Alert...Alert...Alert Hecs day 4 here it comes. Then to shift back to reality then blast anyone that questions me. good point!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looking at the 00z GFS and CMC ensembles, the bad news is that the control run is to the west of the op in both. That suggests that the ensembles might look better because of their lower resolution. But there are still several members to the west of the control runs. The individual members appear (to me) to support Nor Easter's analysis last night. The GL low could pull this back to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This. I'm still worried we end up being rained on. Wow. I really doubt it. But, again, I am in the camp where I would rather have precip than none. NAM is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 you can already see the 12z NAM is a fail But we dont pay any attention to the NAM @84 hours. Its garbage. Except in cases where it shows something promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the baja low on the 6z never really ejected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 But we dont pay any attention to the NAM @84 hours. Its garbage. Except in cases where it shows something promising. The NAM has been pretty good about sniffing out trends this year... sometimes over doing it but still sniffing them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 All my attention is on tomorrow's overperformer. 1-3" with whiteouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the baja low on the 6z never really ejected.... Probably see a completely new solution in the next few runs. The Tues-Wed impulse will get weaker and more sheared, and a new threat will materialize by the end of next week. Could be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Do you want someone who will tell you the truth? Or do you want joe bastardi? can I get back to you on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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