wncsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sheared out mess ftw.. hope the ensembles look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 gonna get suppressed folks...TN and North bama take an early hit *along with NC* then nada...VERY GFS like to be honest. Looks like maybe some ending snowflakes from central bama to central GA and SC then up to C and E NC by 12z WED..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You guys need to take up a collection to send me out of the country every winter LOL. The Euro is a solid 2-4" of snow followed by some sleet/ZR at the end for ATL, then maybe a bit of rain Tues but given the suppressed low track that may not even happen. Then the cold air comes, in could be a big mess by Wednesday AM with a lot of refreezing. Yowzers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 moisture might be making a rebound at 120..0c 850 runs from atlanta to athens but that is also the back edge of the precip. nope..pushed south by 126. huge change though from the 12z run which was very wet at this stage. Regardless decent event ms/al/ga/sc. maybe 0.50 to 0.75 in the atlanta/athens to greenwood to columbia corridor. I agree Fully!! I actually take this as a step toward the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lets see how Glenn Burns spins Severe weather possible in here.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 gonna get suppressed folks...TN and North bama take an early hit *along with NC* then nada...VERY GFS like to be honest. Looks like maybe some ending snowflakes from central bama to central GA and SC then up to C and E NC by 12z WED..... I don't know if i'd say that. the euro is focusing much more on the first wave while the gfs is focusing on the 2nd wave to provide most of the precip. However, the euro no longer has this long drawn out system for sure. You guys need to take up a collection to send me out of the country every winter LOL. The Euro is a solid 2-4" of snow followed by some sleet/ZR at the end for ATL, then maybe a bit of rain Tues but given the suppressed low track that may not even happen. Then the cold air comes, in could be a big mess by Wednesday AM with a lot of refreezing. Yowzers. Indeed. This is a pretty good event for ga/sc/al on this run. ggem has 1 to 1.25 inch liquid over parts of north ga, gfs just barely scraps us with the 2nd and in fact low levels could screw places along the savannah river, while the euro is a solid snow event for these parts with some sleet/glaze on top. Meanwhile areas to the north in nc and tn get mostly snow but a lot lighter total precip and the nav is a monster. I don't follow that model very much but just throwing that in there to show the craziness of the extremes. hard to figure where this goes from here though. Damn you wouldn't think it would trend too much more south given where it started out as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lets see how Glenn Burns spins Severe weather possible in here.... LOL lol I find it a lot better for my nerves not to bother even listening to him anywhere near this stage of the game. Seriously..it's just too frustrating and embarrassing. In all honesty though, this is a hard call right now. i'd hate to be someone like you and having to get on tv and try to explain/forecast this one LOL One more thing though, it looks like the euro ends up changing the rain over to sleet and then some snow over the coastal areas beyond hour 126, especially carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't know if i'd say that. the euro is focusing much more on the first wave while the gfs is focusing on the 2nd wave to provide most of the precip. However, the euro no longer has this long drawn out system for sure. Indeed. This is a pretty good event for ga/sc/al on this run. ggem has 1 to 1.25 inch liquid over parts of north ga, gfs just barely scraps us with the 2nd and in fact low levels could screw places along the savannah river, while the euro is a solid snow event for these parts with some sleet/glaze on top. Meanwhile areas to the north in nc and tn get mostly snow but a lot lighter total precip and the nav is a monster. I don't follow that model very much but just throwing that in there to show the craziness of the extremes. hard to figure where this goes from here though. Damn you wouldn't think it would trend too much more south given where it started out as. Yeah I really don't know what to say. The UK seemed to be leading the charge south and so tonight all the other globals end up suppressed and the UK goes north. Additionally the ensembles by and large seem to give very little support to any of the operational runs tonight, well at least the Canadian and GFS. I guess we'll try again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah I really don't know what to say. The UK seemed to be leading the charge south and so tonight all the other globals end up suppressed and the UK goes north. Additionally the ensembles by and large seem to give very little support to any of the operational runs tonight, well at least the Canadian and GFS. I guess we'll try again tomorrow. Glad you reminded me of the uk. Forgot about that one bucking the trend. Hpc is equally as confused. Hell they believe we might be looking at a few more days of this waffling on the details..which wouldn't be too surprising. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD116 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2015VALID 12Z MON FEB 16 2015 - 12Z FRI FEB 20 2015...OVERVIEW...AS HAS TENDED TO BE THE CASE WITH WEST COAST/ERN PAC RIDGE ANDDOWNSTREAM TROUGH PATTERNS THAT HAVE EXISTED OVER THE PAST COUPLEWINTERS... LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOVE AVERAGE PREDICTABILITYFOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. HOWEVER QUESTION MARKS EXIST FORMULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHRTWVS SO SOME IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THE FCSTHAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE....GUIDANCE EVALUATION...WITH THE DANGEROUSLY COLD/WINDY SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST ONSUN NOW IN THE SHORT RANGE AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BYEARLY MON... THE NEXT FOCUS FOR ATTENTION WILL BE AMPLIFYINGWRN-CNTRL CONUS SHRTWV ENERGY WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE EASTBY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOC SFC LOW PRES REACHING THEWRN ATLC AT THAT TIME. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC SOLN ISBELOW AVG GIVEN THE MULTIPLE SOURCES OF ENERGY INVOLVED... INCL ANINITIALLY WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE NERN PAC AND NOT REACHINGWRN CANADA UNTIL SUN... AN EJECTING COMPACT UPR LOW INITIALLY NEARBAJA CALIF... AND FLOW DIGGING SEWD FROM NWRN CANADA. THUS FARTHE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN HOW THESE FEATURES INTERACTAND WITH THE RESULTING SFC PATTERN. ENSEMBLE SFC LOW PLOTS ALSOSHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD. THE MOST NOTABLE TREND OVER RECENT RUNSAND IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z/18Z CYCLE IS ONE TOWARD GREATERSUPPRESSION AT THE SFC FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE ERN STATES. AMONG THE NEW 00Z SOLNS THUS FAR THE 00Z GFS/CMC SUPPORT OR EVENEXTEND THE RECENTLY ESTABLISHED TREND WHILE THE UKMET STRAYS FROMCONSENSUS ALREADY IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE 18Z GFS LEANED ON THEFASTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LEAVING A COMPROMISE BTWN THE 12Z GFS/18ZGEFS MEAN AND SLOWER 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN AS THE BEST INTERMEDIATESOLN TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS THROUGH DAY 5 WED.UPSTREAM SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN SFC DETAILS DEVELOPS OVER THEROCKIES/PLAINS BY WED IN RESPONSE TO DIFFS IN HOW SHRTWV ENERGYROUNDING THE MEAN RIDGE FLOWS SEWD... WHILE GUIDANCE ALSO DIVERGESWITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAYTRY TO PASS THROUGH OR AROUND THE MEAN RIDGE. AN AVG OF LATESTENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERS A REASONABLE SOLN NEAR THE WEST COAST WITHMAINTENANCE OF A STRONGER RIDGE THAN 12Z ECMWF/18Z GFS/00Z CMCRUNS BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE 00Z GFS THAT HOLDS MORE UPR LOWENERGY BTWN 30-35N THAN OTHER SOLNS BY WED. THE GENERALMODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND USED THROUGH WED AND COMBINATION OF THE18Z GEFS/12Z NAEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS THEREAFTER KEEPS ERNROCKIES/PLAINS FEATURES ILL DEFINED UNTIL BETTER CLUSTERINGDEVELOPS....SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE FCST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING WINTER WEATHER POTENTIALFROM THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE EAST MON-WED. LATEST TRENDSTOWARD A MORE SUPPRESSED SFC SYSTEM WOULD LIMIT THE NWD/NWWDEXTENT OF PCPN VERSUS PRIOR CONSENSUS. SOURCES OF UPR SUPPORT FORTHIS SYSTEM SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST SUN TO GAIN DECENTCONFIDENCE IN REFINING PCPN TYPES AND DURATION/INTENSITY. CURRENTLY THE SRN TIER STATES HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEELOCALLY HVY TOTALS... MOSTLY RAIN WHERE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OCCURS. DEPENDING ON UPSTREAM SHRTWV IMPULSES ONE OR MORE AREAS OF MOSTLYLGT SNOW MAY CROSS NRN AREAS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ALSO PSBLTO THE LEE OF PORTIONS OF THE GRTLKS NOT YET COVERED BY ICE. LGTPCPN MAY REACH THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ERN PAC ENERGYPASSES INTO THE LARGE SCALE MEAN RIDGE.OVERALL THE MEAN PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT WARM TEMPS OVER THEWEST... VARIABLE READINGS OVER THE PLAINS... AND BELOW TO MUCHBELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE EAST. EXPECT WARMEST ANOMALIES OFPLUS 10-20F OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WED TO FRI WHILE MINUS 15-30FANOMALIES ARE PSBL ON MULTIPLE DAYS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN HALF OFTHE CONUS.RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 lol I find it a lot better for my nerves not to bother even listening to him anywhere near this stage of the game. Seriously..it's just too frustrating and embarrassing. In all honesty though, this is a hard call right now. i'd hate to be someone like you and having to get on tv and try to explain/forecast this one LOL One more thing though, it looks like the euro ends up changing the rain over to sleet and then some snow over the coastal areas beyond hour 126, especially carolinas. Very tough call for sure. I say trend like GFS only with the more south look. i.e. the SFC stuff. Still soooooo much to work out...Not going to be an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah I really don't know what to say. The UK seemed to be leading the charge south and so tonight all the other globals end up suppressed and the UK goes north. Additionally the ensembles by and large seem to give very little support to any of the operational runs tonight, well at least the Canadian and GFS. I guess we'll try again tomorrow.The ensemble thing is one think that's giving me mental gymnastics as well. Perhaps the higher resolution models are picking up a feature that the lower resolution ensemble members can't handle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 00z UKMET is coming out on WB now... Looks very icy for TN. Looks like it's about to crush NC with snow. Definitely further north/warmer than the past couple runs. TN is getting drilled with a bad ice storm at hr 90 while snow is moving into W NC. EDIT: GSO area gets crushed with 8" of snow, then some ice with temps in the mid-20s. Everyone S of VA warms above 0C at 850 before it ends. Bad ice and/or snow storm from GSP to CLT to RDU N/W. CAE is spared this run and shoots close to 60 degrees, in fact. The LP track is as follows: Hr 90: N MS Hr 96: N AL Hr 102: N GA (just north of KATL) Hr 108: N SC Hr 114: East of the Delmarva Peninsula This is a big snowstorm for SW VA and C VA, as well, with temps in the teens for them. Most of GA aside from the extreme NE is spared. It's all-rain for MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro ensembles out, almost identical to the op to about 84-then it is wetter farther north through Wed, in fact this mean is much better for a lot of folks from GA to NC- much more favorable for backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Big shift by the 00z EPS compared to the 12z run. Nice Miller A track on the mean now with a LP tracking from the FL panhandle to off of Hatteras. The 12z run had an inland runner. EDIT: Ninja'd! Looks like the mean here is 6", which basically lines up with the 12z run (except this is probably basically all-snow), except now the entire state of NC (pretty much) is >2" "snow" along with 2/3rds of SC and the northern 1/3rd of GA, AL, and MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like a mean of 6" frozen here on the euro ensembles. Most likely all snow, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like a mean of 6" frozen here on the euro ensembles. Most likely all snow, too. Honestly, it's an amazing EPS run... Pretty much textbook track for a lot of us. Definitely puts me at ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GEM ensemble seems to be MUCH wetter than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Crazy how the Euro goes south, too, but the ensembles actually look better here. Meanwhile the UK goes north but still looks good. Bottom line is there is still a good winter storm showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Big shift by the 00z EPS compared to the 12z run. Nice Miller A track on the mean now with a LP tracking from the FL panhandle to off of Hatteras. The 12z run had an inland runner. EDIT: Ninja'd! Looks like the mean here is 6", which basically lines up with the 12z run (except this is probably basically all-snow), except now the entire state of NC (pretty much) is >2" "snow" along with 2/3rds of SC and the northern 1/3rd of GA, AL, and MS. mtns of nc looking pretty good right now for mostly snow or all snow with a pretty nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z gfs has a little more moisture with the first wave in TN and north GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And it looks like the second wave is going to be squashed again. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And the second wave slides out to sea. Suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I had fallen asleep before the 0Z Euro was released. That's why I didn't comment. That is an amazingly good run for the ATL-AHN corridor and pretty much all of the N 1/3 of GA down at least to Tony's place. Even Chris may be close to some ZR taking into account the Euro warm bias by several degrees at 2M. Taken literally, this run is pretty much giving at least the ATL-AHN corridor a major winter storm. QPF is generally 0.6-0.8", which is more than enough to generate a major winter storm. It looks like several inches of snow followed by 1-2" of IP and maybe some ZR. For Tony's place, it looks like more IP initially but followed by more ZR than further north. One thing I'll note is that a more and more supressed track has been the trend for most of the models outside the UKMET. So, it wouldn't surprise me if that continues. If so, N Ga could be left out on future runs and central and possibly parts of S GA as well as S SC could get more action. I see that the 6Z GFS is more supressed. However, it is a good run for the area bounded by ATL-AHN-MCN-COL with 1-2" of SN and very cold temp.'s then. Edit: the last two runs of the GFS give parts of the SE seevral inches of SN from a clipper on 2/19 with the very cold temps.'s. That's way too far out in time to get a handle on and clippers very rarely produce that much. Interestingly, the 6Z gives coastal SC a very rare 1-4"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I just mean that people said that suppression wasn't even a concern and that we really needed to worry about a cutter. I think everything is a concern at this point. Hopefully, the Canadian/Euro/UKMET stay locked in and the GFS doesn't continue this trend in future runs. EDIT: Of course, you guys in the eastern Piedmont might not want the GGEM/Euro to stay locked in, but it's every man for himself! The 00z UKMET appears to be a Miller B from what I can tell. Probably all-frozen for the CAD regions of NC, but not sure about others. The Canadian is slightly disturbing for me. More GFS-like. Not much precip up this way! HUGE change from the massive blockbuster event with all P-types at 12z... Yep, there's a reason I tweeted this yesterday afternoon after the 12z runs: Matthew East @eastwx · 13h13 hours ago Famous last words....but I don't expect a big north trend this time around assuming W Coast ridge is modeled correctly. Matthew East @eastwx · 13h13 hours ago If anything, for snow fans, the "fear" might be for a weaker, more suppressed solution. But indications for a system are strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I really hope things don't go too far south now. It is starting to be really concerning. We get this close and things looked so good. All winter everything has cut and now we get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think there is a real chance this can get too suppressed for us, as I mentioned this a few days back. One thing I would keep in mind is what has happened all winter. We've been rooting for a system to dig in the SW and then eject out....but it just hasn't happened like that so I'm pretty suspicious now of the models digging it so far, not phasing with that cut off in the sw and then going into the meat grinder. Sorry just don't buy it. Not because it's showing a solution I don't want, just that the pattern which hasn't changed really tends to not do that. Typically the energy diving doesn't dive nearly sw enough or experiences sever liftoff once getting into TX. I think the UK probably would be a more likely solution at this point for reality with it's Miller B look as that would fit climo this year. Of course anything can happen, I would expect Saturday we start getting a clear picture of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I may have jumped the gun, but I started a thread for the storm. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45706-feb-16th17th18th-winter-wx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wow. I just looked at the 6Z GFS bufkit for Raleigh... Showing us pretty much dry as a bone throughout the whole thing! Also, can someone explain what you mean by "cutter"? I assume a track too far north and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z GEFS looks great, so does the 0z EPS. The normally progressive NAVGEM 6z run looks great. Will see. The 6z GFS completely missed phase with baja low, one reason it was dryer. I like where we sit to be honest, 4-5 days out what would you want to see right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 6z GEFS looks great, so does the 0z EPS. The normally progressive NAVGEM 6z run looks great. Will see. The 6z GFS completely missed phase with baja low, one reason it was dryer. I like where we sit to be honest, 4-5 days out what would you want to see right now? I cant believe the GFS is THIS BAD. No wait, I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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