superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember when my mention of worrying about suppression was laughed off? I mean, I don't think it's likely, either, but this run is concerning so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey its colder around here at 2m tho...haha very close IMBY but wow...I would reject the GFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 here comes the 2nd wave trying hard at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember when my mention of worrying about suppression was laughed off? I mean, I don't think it's likely, either, but this run is concerning so far.Better hope there is a trailing wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember when my mention of worrying about suppression was laughed off? I mean, I don't think it's likely, either, but this run is concerning so far. who laughed it off? I don't think anyone should discount any possibility with how horrible the models have been this year. I can't say i'm shocked the by the 0z run. It's almost laughable when you think about it showed damn near a lake cutter just a few runs ago. although it does redeem itself by hour 120 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey its colder around here at 2m tho...haha very close IMBY but wow...I would reject the GFS for now. I always reject GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 boom at 117, snow for majority of nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hey its colder around here at 2m tho...haha very close IMBY but wow...I would reject the GFS for now. well that sucks since it gives you a decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Waycross gets snow on the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's not horrible, I guess. 1-3" for a good deal of the area with some areas in GA/SC/E NC getting more than that. In the old days, this would be right where we want the GFS at this stage, in a sense, but I don't know how true that is with the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Remember when my mention of worrying about suppression was laughed off? I mean, I don't think it's likely, either, but this run is concerning so far.Not sure who laughed it off but man a cutter west of the apps to suppression seems a bit extreme to me so that's the only reason I don't buy it. Ensembles say differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can you experienced weather gurus tell if this is turning into a Miller A type system by the looks of it at Hour 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LOL.... 850's crash and actually might show some snow around here by Tue midday...all the way back up toward ATL and BHM and south. QPF looks ok around there. 2m might be a smidge warm. same for CAE and GSP and light snow north of there. then the sfc low starts to get stronger off the coasts....I just don't buy this AT ALL right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not sure who laughed it off but man a cutter west of the apps to suppression seems a bit extreme to me so that's the only reason I don't buy it. Ensembles say differently. I just mean that people said that suppression wasn't even a concern and that we really needed to worry about a cutter. I think everything is a concern at this point. Hopefully, the Canadian/Euro/UKMET stay locked in and the GFS doesn't continue this trend in future runs. EDIT: Of course, you guys in the eastern Piedmont might not want the GGEM/Euro to stay locked in, but it's every man for himself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I laughed off suppression but also said anything and everything could go wrong at this range. If we are going to have a problem, suppression is the one to have. Got to remember that the Euro isn't anything like this, thus far anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I just mean that people said that suppression wasn't even a concern and that we really needed to worry about a cutter. I think everything is a concern at this point. Hopefully, the Canadian/Euro/UKMET stay locked in and the GFS doesn't continue this trend in future runs. yeah. I wrote off this storm way too early and I was 99% sure it would cut, obviously the models fooled me. Anything is possible right now. It would be so cruel to see this thing disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can you experienced weather gurus tell if this is turning into a Miller A type system by the looks of it at Hour 120? Yes, Miller A all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LOL.... 850's crash and actually might show some snow around here by Tue midday...all the way back up toward ATL and BHM and south. QPF looks ok around there. 2m might be a smidge warm. same for CAE and GSP and light snow north of there. then the sfc low starts to get stronger off the coasts....I just don't buy this AT ALL right now.. I don't either really. It's a wild departure from every other model and run. But hey, what else is knew this year with the gfs ? (and everything else really) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is actually the perfect sfc low snow track for this area so hard to complain at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still not worried about this missing SE or vanishing, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It was also just one run. The rest of the runs all day have been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At this point, I think a southward track is more likely than an inland runner given the southward progression over the polar vortex across the Hudson Bay/Ontario. I'm not sure if I'm ready to buy complete suppression like the GFS has been trending toward, but it's definitely something that needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I've been praying for a Miller A track for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nice clipper day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS is actually the perfect sfc low snow track for this area so hard to complain at this point This is very true. Just add more QPF and most of us would be happy. At least it's cold. It has real potential to be high-ratio fluffy fun... EDIT: Actually, 2m temps aren't even that great that run. GSO is barely below freezing and RDU, etc. is above. Of course, the GFS is also on its own with that, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Fishel is having none of it citing this GFS run. Took a potshot at deltadog too I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How often does ATL get clippers, LOL, 12z GFS day 7 says its possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Fishel is having none of it citing this GFS run. Took a potshot at deltadog too I believe. If that is true, I guess he just ignores all the other good runs that took place today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm not quite understanding why it would be so warm behind the Low up pointed toward Lake Hartwell at hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 How often does ATL get clippers, LOL, 12z GFS day 7 says its possible Yeah, this model run just seems a tad too wacky for me to believe it, with the clipper and the suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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