Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does anybody see that massive 1046 high dropping in just northwest of Lake Superior? If that is really there, that storm ain't going north. That is nearly perfect! If that remains on future guidance and if we have a southern stream system, then just about everybody here should start getting pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The 12z GGEM has sleet, freezing rain, and snow into AL, GA, SC, NC on the first weekend system it looks like. These ptype maps of course are taken with a grain of salt. Edit: after, a surface low gets going and is lifting Northward into TN and NC is in for a possible ZR fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Does anybody see that massive 1046 high dropping in just northwest of Lake Superior? If that is really there, that storm ain't going north. That is nearly perfect! If that remains on future guidance and if we have a southern stream system, then just about everybody here should start getting pumped. Those highs have tended to be weaker all year long and not come as far south as modeled beyond 72 hours. Ironically I think GA/SC/AL in this event may benefit from this happening, but not with that high, with the high that is over NC/SC at 96 hours...if that high is ultimately more north and east it probably positions them better for getting slammed with overrunning, right now its possible that misses them to the W and N. Of course, if that high is more north than after 120 they flip to rain, but IMO that's gonna happen anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Do you have access to precip or RH panels for the Ukmet? It's hard for me to tell if it's generating any precip based off the 500mb and surface pressure maps. From the 12z yesterday "snowfall maps" I don't see much out of far Northern parts of GA/AL & NC mountains through 144 hours. The precip maps follow that line too it seems. It's hard since the only access I have is "total accumulated precip" though. This current storm is in the way and makes it hard.. but there is definitely nothing crazily heavy. In other words not GFS/GGEM like in any way.. probably not even as much as the 00z Euro had for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Has anyone ever seen such a setup with a vort running almost NW-SE into an arctic high in those areas? I never have, I have seen SW-NE movers but NW-SE to me would scream that AL and GA would be downsloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Those highs have tended to be weaker all year long and not come as far south as modeled beyond 72 hours. Ironically I think GA/SC/AL in this event may benefit from this happening, but not with that high, with the high that is over NC/SC at 96 hours...if that high is ultimately more north and east it probably positions them better for getting slammed with overrunning, right now its possible that misses them to the W and N. Of course, if that high is more north than after 120 they flip to rain, but IMO that's gonna happen anyhow I agree that they have been overmodeled all year, like you said. If it is this time, then yeah, not much to see here. But if it's real, it'll be a whole different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Has anyone ever seen such a setup with a vort running almost NW-SE into an arctic high in those areas? I never have, I have seen SW-NE movers but NW-SE to me would scream that AL and GA would be downsloped. If I'm not mistaken on the crappy UKMET maps at least from last night; you can see some lighter precip diving down.. and just wanting to clip, but I don't know if 72 hours is really far enough to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ukmet is out now. Have to wait till later this afternoon to get finer details for weekend. Super james can knab em. I can't till on phone, don't have access to 5oo mb maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Has anyone ever seen such a setup with a vort running almost NW-SE into an arctic high in those areas? I never have, I have seen SW-NE movers but NW-SE to me would scream that AL and GA would be downsloped. We've had plenty of cases of vorts in NW flow yield wintry weather, but yeah snowgoose, I don't recall one where it is running into a sfc high that is essentially being held up by a PV lobe like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think at 96 hours, I see the UKMET trying to hold onto a 1030HP around NC (maybe the coast?). The maps are pretty crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ukmet is out now. Have to wait till later this afternoon to get finer details for weekend. Super james can knab em. I can't till on phone, don't have access to 5oo mb maps 12z GFS/CMC/UKMet all have some light clipper snow on Wed. UKMet looks similar to CMC with snow streaking into TN/N Bama/N GA Thurs into Fri...that system eventually digs too far west and warms up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Has anyone ever seen such a setup with a vort running almost NW-SE into an arctic high in those areas? I never have, I have seen SW-NE movers but NW-SE to me would scream that AL and GA would be downsloped.It happened a couple of times in the 90s but it was never more than an inch or two. I would gladly take that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I know it will be wrong, but the 12Z GFS is just a catastrophic ice storm for NC. Starts around 120 and lasts through around 204. There's another arctic outbreak around/just after D10. Then, a brief warm-up, followed by more cold and storminess. It also shows ridging in eastern Canada/near Greenland, so you know it's wrong. But what a winter run it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The CMC does eventually deliver a "traditional" setup at about 192 hours, though. It seems to match with the 0z euro, fwiw. From what I can tell off e-wall's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z GFS wants to drop us down to -1° on Friday 2/20 per Meteostar kjnx. That's pretty brutal anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Sounds like the Euro is crushing NC next Monday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Euro is a total crush job for coastal SC, NC! We've seen this movie before but hopefully it ends better for the SE this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, Euro shows 10 to 12 inches of snow from Raleigh eastward. I think we are entering a repeating pattern like we have seen most of the winter. Ever since December, it has rained almost every week between Saturday and Monday. Now we have the cold to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, Euro shows 10 to 12 inches of snow from Raleigh eastward. I think we are entering a repeating pattern like we have seen most of the winter. Ever since December, it has rained almost every week between Saturday and Monday. Now we have the cold to go with it. The weekend of February 6-9 was horrific around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Per the 12Z King: now that's a typical widespread major SE winter storm on 2/23-4....a weak Miller A low. Staying away from land other than the far SE/FL. Weak. Not disturbing the Arctic air that makes it down to the SE below the very cold high crossing the MW into the NE. Then a coastal gives the SE coast a historical big hit, one of the the biggest (biggest some locations) coastal snow hits since 12/1989 on 2/25-6! That gives ILM 9", MYR 5", CHS 4", SAV 2", and even Waycross (AYS) 1"! By the way, those are legit snows per the model. OK, just for entertainment but shows the potential for the SE US with this continued very cold pattern and moisture at least lurking nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Per the 12Z King: now that's a typical widespread major SE winter storm on 2/23-4....a weak Miller A low. Staying away from land other than the far SE/FL. Weak. Not disturbing the Arctic air that makes it down to the SE below the very cold high crossing the MW into the NE. Then a coastal gives the SE coast a historical big hit, one of the the biggest (biggest some locations) coastal snow hits since 12/1989 on 2/25-6! That gives ILM 9", MYR 5", CHS 4", SAV 2", and even Waycross (AYS) 1"! By the way, those are legit snows per the model. OK, just for entertainment but shows the potential for the SE US with this continued very cold pattern and moisture at least lurking nearby. It'll trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It'll trend north I have to second this. As much as I would like 9", the overall pattern does not favor such in my opinion. Yes, there is arctic air in place. But despite the +PNA/-EPO regime, the AO and NAO have been largely positive throughout the winter, giving way to a storm track generally north of here with a lack of upper-level blocking. However, I would love to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Per the 12Z King: now that's a typical widespread major SE winter storm on 2/23-4....a weak Miller A low. Staying away from land other than the far SE/FL. Weak. Not disturbing the Arctic air that makes it down to the SE below the very cold high crossing the MW into the NE. Then a coastal gives the SE coast a historical big hit, one of the the biggest (biggest some locations) coastal snow hits since 12/1989 on 2/25-6! That gives ILM 9", MYR 5", CHS 4", SAV 2", and even Waycross (AYS) 1"! By the way, those are legit snows per the model. OK, just for entertainment but shows the potential for the SE US with this continued very cold pattern and moisture at least lurking nearby. just for kicks - any clown maps? waycross is a short drive, if it were to ever happen ... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Per the 12Z King: now that's a typical widespread major SE winter storm on 2/23-4....a weak Miller A low. Staying away from land other than the far SE/FL. Weak. Not disturbing the Arctic air that makes it down to the SE below the very cold high crossing the MW into the NE. Then a coastal gives the SE coast a historical big hit, one of the the biggest (biggest some locations) coastal snow hits since 12/1989 on 2/25-6! That gives ILM 9", MYR 5", CHS 4", SAV 2", and even Waycross (AYS) 1"! By the way, those are legit snows per the model. OK, just for entertainment but shows the potential for the SE US with this continued very cold pattern and moisture at least lurking nearby. Absolutely this storm could go north. Who knows? I was on a conference call earlier with mets from GSP going over today's storm when someone asked them about this weekend's potential. Their response was "could be a rainstorm or a widespread winter storm, too early to tell." Last week at this time, we had models sending today's storm to Chicago. All I know is it's sleeting here right now at 32 degrees with a 25 degree DP and it ain't doin nothin Chicago. It's just fun having a cold active pattern with multiple threats to track. I like our chances but sure would be nice to see a little blocking!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Nice 10 day pattern on the Euro...let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Roughly counted 19 members with heavy amounts of "snow" into KCAE even on the 12z EPS members for next week's potential Miller A.The total members for "something" at least are much higher. There are some absolute monsters mixed in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Roughly counted 19 members with heavy amounts of "snow" into KCAE even on the 12z EPS members for next week's potential Miller A. The total members for "something" at least are much higher. There are some absolute monsters mixed in too. Yeah, the mean has a nice suppressed miller A look to it from eastern gulf up off the SE coast days 7-10. Arctic boundary is just pressed well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 wow the EPS agreement is SCARY for this one. Is it right, prob not!! hahahah but, for poop and giggles, it has over 20 members with snow here. the MEAN is 2" and the op run is 4" Let me enjoy this run before it goes away tomorrow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 From WPC for late this week... IN GENERAL THE EVOLUTION OF UPR FLOW TOWARD A POSITIVELY TILTEDTROUGH ALOFT COMBINED WITH GREATER FLOW OF MSTR FROM THE GULFSHOULD PRODUCE AN INCREASINGLY MESSY PCPN PATTERN CNTRL-ERN AREASWITH SNOW N/RAIN S AND A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION ZONEBTWN THE TWO. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DEVELOP CONFIDENCE INTIMING/COVERAGE OF SPECIFIC PCPN AREAS... THOUGH FOR AT LEAST ACOUPLE DAYS OR SO THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST PCPN TOTALS FORTHE OVERALL PERIOD HAS EXTENDED FROM THE SERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OFTHE SOUTHEAST/SRN HALF OF THE APLCHNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Apparently, GFS ensemble is not like the op and agrees with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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