tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z GEFS is south South of the 18z OP or south of the 12z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That was a painful GFS run... No 2/19 storm. Completely disappeared. No one can say it definitely won't come back though!It was gone on 12z GFS also, our rented mule is the Tuesday storm, ride or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It was gone on 12z GFS also, our rented mule is the Tuesday storm, ride or die Not much excitement about Tues in these parts. Tuesday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday NightA chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 <p> Not much excitement about Tues in these parts. Tuesday A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. You've been around since they delivered weather forecasts by horse! You know those computer generated crap is crap! They are the same ones that say: Monday mostly sunny,with a chance of snow. High near 55. Come on man, you know this is the one, even if it's 10 minutes of snow before changeover , then you get a trace and still have a goose egg for the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 South of the 18z OP or south of the 12z GEFS? The snow max is south of the 12z GEFS, looks like most members jackpot KY/WV/NoVa, where the 12z jackpotted almost to Chicago into N-Oh. Actually the 18z GEFS has a little less snow into NC/SC. This doesn't show ice, just snow, I believe. Fairly big jump in a 6 hour run. Lines up with the EPS mean too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 yeah its really only snow to start for the mtns. Including the north Ga mtns. Looks like all-snow for N NC through the end of the run (snow N/W of GSO to HKY), though it would possibly changeover soon thereafter. 2M Temps are crazy cold. It's 28 in CAE and 20 at GSO at the end of the run! GA and SC appear to pretty much be all-ZR/IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like all-snow for N NC through the end of the run (snow N/W of GSO to HKY), though it would possibly changeover soon thereafter. 2M Temps are crazy cold. It's 28 in CAE and 20 at GSO at the end of the run! GA and SC appear to pretty much be all-ZR/IP. I'm not on board until we are in long range NAM timeframe! When it's on board , I'm all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like all-snow for N NC through the end of the run (snow N/W of GSO to HKY), though it would possibly changeover soon thereafter. 2M Temps are crazy cold. It's 28 in CAE and 20 at GSO at the end of the run! GA and SC appear to pretty much be all-ZR/IP. That's the most worrying part about this for my back yard. The UKMET has been consistent and it has a major ice storm around here with 850mb temperatures well above freezing as the core of the moisture gets here with a lot more on the way seemingly. The 00z GGEM did the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Winter, is that you?? New wx video is up. Tell me what y'all think. good or bad https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Winter, is that you?? New wx video is up. Tell me what y'all think. good or bad https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Thanks Chris! That was the first time I viewed one of your videos. It was a great wrap up of what all the models were showing. The only observation I can give is it's definitely a video created for people with our level of meteorological knowledge; meaning I got a lot out of it but my wife would not. As with all meteorologist you'll have to provide different kinds of output for your different types of audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Winter, is that you?? New wx video is up. Tell me what y'all think. good or bad https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Big thumbs up Chris... Great vid. I'm optimistic about next week but this has tempered the in me... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Winter, is that you?? New wx video is up. Tell me what y'all think. good or bad https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Great vid Chris. Thanks for your info on here! FWIW from a novice - I think you are spot on with the I-40 line of thought. I am in the western upstate and these setups don't usually go our way. WWA usually takes over from the get-go, especially with no real CAD feed. And backside changeover NEVER works here with the downsloping. As much as I want this to be some wintry weather, I don't like the track of the low the models are showing and it comes in between cold airmasses, not in conjunction with one. Based on what we see here (of course it could change) I think the high couuntry will see some fun, Northern NC will have a shot, and Tennessee and NW GA will have a chance with some backside changeover, but not for the lee of the mts, unless there is some cycloogenesis closer to the Rock Hill to GSO area and east (which does happen quite a bit). Unless we can get that low to track further south, this will not be a widespread event for most of us, and probably a no go for many Guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You've been around since they delivered weather forecasts by horse! You know those computer generated crap is crap! They are the same ones that say: Monday mostly sunny,with a chance of snow. High near 55. Come on man, you know this is the one, even if it's 10 minutes of snow before changeover , then you get a trace and still have a goose egg for the winter! Yeah. Thank God we don't use computers for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great vid Chris. Thanks for your info on here! FWIW from a novice - I think you are spot on with the I-40 line of thought. I am in the western upstate and these setups don't usually go our way. WWA usually takes over from the get-go, especially with no real CAD feed. And backside changeover NEVER works here with the downsloping. As much as I want this to be some wintry weather, I don't like the track of the low the models are showing and it comes in between cold airmasses, not in conjunction with one. Based on what we see here (of course it could change) I think the high couuntry will see some fun, Northern NC will have a shot, and Tennessee and NW GA will have a chance with some backside changeover, but not for the lee of the mts, unless there is some cycloogenesis closer to the Rock Hill to GSO area and east (which does happen quite a bit). Unless we can get that low to track further south, this will not be a widespread event for most of us, and probably a no go for many Guess time will tell.The models are trending south and they always underestimate the cold in the cad regions! If we get the precip in here right at daybreak , we may have a shot at some pretty dicy weather! Maybe we get the finger of precip that comes ahead of the storms alot of the times and lay down a crusty dusting!? In situ cad can work, it's all about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah. Thank God we don't use computers for the models. You rang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 You rang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So, I am slightly hopeful here but remembering the recent Chicago blizzard. Early when it was on the models, remember the 996 is bomb crossing Northern WVA. It trended south to a decent looking storm for many of us at maybe 6 or 7 days out only to trend all the way back to a very strong storm across southern PA. I like the trend today as long as it is not leading to crippling ice I like the big highs to the north and even the cold that is around longer term but Is there something different in this setup that gives us hope that this thing is not going to trend 200 miles north yet again? Looks like I will be burning plenty of wood the next couple of week though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thanks Chris! That was the first time I viewed one of your videos. It was a great wrap up of what all the models were showing. The only observation I can give is it's definitely a video created for people with our level of meteorological knowledge; meaning I got a lot out of it but my wife would not. As with all meteorologist you'll have to provide different kinds of output for your different types of audience. Thank you for the kind words! I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Big thumbs up Chris... Great vid. I'm optimistic about next week but this has tempered the in me... LOL Thank you for the very kind words I am hoping so as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great vid Chris. Thanks for your info on here! FWIW from a novice - I think you are spot on with the I-40 line of thought. I am in the western upstate and these setups don't usually go our way. WWA usually takes over from the get-go, especially with no real CAD feed. And backside changeover NEVER works here with the downsloping. As much as I want this to be some wintry weather, I don't like the track of the low the models are showing and it comes in between cold airmasses, not in conjunction with one. Based on what we see here (of course it could change) I think the high couuntry will see some fun, Northern NC will have a shot, and Tennessee and NW GA will have a chance with some backside changeover, but not for the lee of the mts, unless there is some cycloogenesis closer to the Rock Hill to GSO area and east (which does happen quite a bit). Unless we can get that low to track further south, this will not be a widespread event for most of us, and probably a no go for many Guess time will tell. Thank you for the kind words..I wonder if we could actually see a S trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The models are trending south and they always underestimate the cold in the cad regions! If we get the precip in here right at daybreak , we may have a shot at some pretty dicy weather! Maybe we get the finger of precip that comes ahead of the storms alot of the times and lay down a crusty dusting!? In situ cad can work, it's all about timing. VERY good point!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Is the south shift real? Will it last? I think tonights 00z and especially the 12z runs are very very important. Why? We have seen a huge shift in the models around that HR120 timeframe with these storms. Then there seems to be more shifting, although not as much, around the D3 timeframe. BIG runs coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You've been around since they delivered weather forecasts by horse! You know those computer generated crap is crap! They are the same ones that say: Monday mostly sunny,with a chance of snow. High near 55. Come on man, you know this is the one, even if it's 10 minutes of snow before changeover , then you get a trace and still have a goose egg for the winter! Yep. Crap is crap. You can't get more circular than that. On a more serious note, I think this Tuesday storm still has quite the potential for NW of I-85 in NC. I like my chances in the lee of the Apps for this one. Gulf moisture or overrunning precipitation from the south always stands a chance at being wintry here in Hickory. The cold, dry air that will be present on Sunday will not fade away too easily, and I'm with NCSNOW in being on board to break the shutout. (BTW, no asterisk needed for my locale as I have yet to even see a flake IMBY this winter season.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0Z GFS fired up and running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z still showing that quick burst of snow on the NC Coast at 024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z still showing that quick burst of snow on the NC Coast at 024. Looks to be like surface temperatures will be a huge problem, though. Of course, the NAM has no precip at all, so we'll see if there's even any rain to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the GFS is to be believed, there will be an insane temperature gradient this weekend in the midwest. Denver pushing 70 and then 75 or so miles NW could be around 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the GFS is to be believed, there will be an insane temperature gradient this weekend in the midwest. Denver pushing 70 and then 75 or so miles NW could be around 10.I'm busy not winning the lottery and I come back to CO weather!!? GFS must be great, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS has been on an island by itself. Can it score a coup? Sure. Likely? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here comes the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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