Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 18z GFS 312-384 our only hope, until 00z. Nice overrunning event with a CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 18z GFS 312-384 our only hope, until 00z. I like the general look on the GFS and Euro ens for 14-18th period. Yeah verbatim the western ridge/eastern trough axis is a bit too far east but plenty of time to pull that back west some. Defo some potential and something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro has chance for storm day 11 per ensembles GFS, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles have been indicating the potential for something big around Feb. 18 for the last several runs. A lot of rainy members, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 My goodness, the 18z ens looks frigid. I mean....wow. Can't say I hope that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 You have to remember its much easier for them to score in a crap pattern then us. As is the case the entire winter season. The higher your lat the easier it is to score...but I get your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles have been indicating the potential for something big around Feb. 18 for the last several runs. A lot of rainy members, but something to keep an eye on. Uh oh, here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Uh oh, here we go again. We are the MA forum...bad pattern can't keep us down for long...we get right back on the horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 My goodness, the 18z ens looks frigid. I mean....wow. Can't say I hope that verifies. Canadian ensembles say otherwise http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Uh oh, here we go again. Everything good has been 10 days away since 12/15 and when the 10 days come it's 20 degrees warmer and 300 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Everything good has been 10 days away since 12/15 and when the 10 days come it's 20 degrees warmer and 300 miles north. ^^^This. Until I see something track across southern GA to SC coast and we have temps near zero in the 10 day I'm not biting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Canadian ensembles say otherwise http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html There's a brief 4-6 day reprieve in most guidance, but everything turns cold again after February 15th. The 10 day GGEMS ens mean will be skewed by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Canadian ensembles say otherwise http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html I know you know this Mitch but with the height patterns being advertised, the +1 air in central canada being delivered straight s-se is still below normal for us. The pattern looks aob on the averages for 2 weeks. Probably longer. I don't even care about frigid or much below. Give me an airmass originating from northern or central canada and any low pressure that doesn't end up in PIT and we end up on the winning side. Any lp that passes nw gives us a warm day or two like this weekend. But long duration above normal looks pretty unlikely for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 There's a brief 4-6 day reprieve in most guidance, but everything turns cold again after February 15th. The 10 day GGEMS ens mean will be skewed by that. the 18Z GFS has "alleged" very cold air (-20C 850's) starting at 150 hours, so well w/in the Canadian 240 hr. forecast period reflected on the ensembles link so it does disagree with the GFS anyway, to assume "all the guidance" will be right with the intensity of the cold in 10+ days (after 2/15) is more than a little risky considering the advertised cold has not been as intense or as long lasting as advertised this winter call me hard headed, but I'll believe the days on end below freezing as has been advertised several times this year for us when it finally happens, since it hasn't happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I know you know this Mitch but with the height patterns being advertised, the +1 air in central canada being delivered straight s-se is still below normal for us. The pattern looks aob on the averages for 2 weeks. Probably longer. I don't even care about frigid or much below. Give me an airmass originating from northern or central canada and any low pressure that doesn't end up in PIT and we end up on the winning side. Any lp that passes nw gives us a warm day or two like this weekend. But long duration above normal looks pretty unlikely for a while. Bob, the anomaly forecast lines don't quite make it to our back yards, but if you extend those lines (as I often do with success on this forecast), we're on the cusp of +/- normal temps so there's no need to look at the height patterns I just find these Canadian temp ensembles a much more accurate forecast than the other models, whether they are advertising below or above normal, which is why I often link them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Bob, the anomaly forecast lines don't quite make it to our back yards, but if you extend those lines (as I often do with success on this forecast), we're on the cusp of +/- normal temps so there's no need to look at the height patterns I just find these Canadian temp ensembles a much more accurate forecast than the other models, whether they are advertising below or above normal, which is why I often link them Yeah, I think they do tend be pretty useful and they perform well or at least as well as some of the other major models, however in this case most other data for the extended are against any warming for the foreseeable future. If I'm reading the map correctly that you posted it's the 10 day period starting on the 6th. The real cold is not suppose to arrive until Thursday the 12th, so it must be seeing the warmth in the first 6 days of the period. GFS and Euro are both locked in on very cold entering the region on the 12th and lasting at least a week. I guess since the cold has been very overdone 5-7 days out things may end up closer to average when the period is over . We'll see what verifies, but for those looking for an above normal period anytime before the 20th probably will be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Everything good has been 10 days away since 12/15 and when the 10 days come it's 20 degrees warmer and 300 miles north. I'm with Teninch Johnson.. the writing was on the wall concerning this winter 2 months ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Canadian ensembles have below average temps for DC from the 12th to the 22nd, but they are not as cold as the GEFS. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma5d&runtime=2015020612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=215 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Canadian ensembles have below average temps for DC from the 12th to the 22nd, but they are not as cold as the GEFS. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma5d&runtime=2015020612&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=215 that's days 6-10 only days 1-5 are a little above normal, hence the map I posted shows only slightly below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I know you know this Mitch but with the height patterns being advertised, the +1 air in central canada being delivered straight s-se is still below normal for us. The pattern looks aob on the averages for 2 weeks. Probably longer. I don't even care about frigid or much below. Give me an airmass originating from northern or central canada and any low pressure that doesn't end up in PIT and we end up on the winning side. Any lp that passes nw gives us a warm day or two like this weekend. But long duration above normal looks pretty unlikely for a while. You may have already seen it but Isotherm made a good post in the main form about where the pattern may be going from mid month on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 the 18Z GFS has "alleged" very cold air (-20C 850's) starting at 150 hours, so well w/in the Canadian 240 hr. forecast period reflected on the ensembles link so it does disagree with the GFS anyway, to assume "all the guidance" will be right with the intensity of the cold in 10+ days (after 2/15) is more than a little risky considering the advertised cold has not been as intense or as long lasting as advertised this winter call me hard headed, but I'll believe the days on end below freezing as has been advertised several times this year for us when it finally happens, since it hasn't happened yet Completely correct. I think we have had at least 4 depictions of highs in low 20's, low -5 to +5 and we have not even come close, off by 10-15 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Completely correct. I think we have had at least 4 depictions of highs in low 20's, low -5 to +5 and we have not even come close, off by 10-15 degrees. It just happened back in early January..850s were around -25C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It just happened back in early January..850s were around -25C. KOKV had one day (8th) with a high of 25F, coldest day of the year. The day prior was 28F and the low was 9F (coldest of the year). That's pretty generic, transient cold. Of course, 3 days before that we had a +24F (4th) Seems like the modeled cold has mostly been over-done all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It just happened back in early January..850s were around -25C. The first arctic shot did deliver somewhat but even that one was not quite as bad as advertised. Everyone after underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 00z GFS @ 192 hours is dropping the PV into NE...EPIC cold for the Mid-Atlantic & NE...Its close to creating an absoltue monster miller B as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 00z GFS @ 192 hours is dropping the PV into NE...EPIC cold for the Mid-Atlantic & NE...Its close to creating an absoltue monster miller B as well. you'll get a lot of fans out of that scenario around here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 you'll get a lot of fans out of that scenario around here lol Honestly Mitch, if that insane PNA being forecasted is real, I think there would be a small % we'd see that epic shortwave that the GFS is showing drop farther S...Something to track at least if it is real, I'm staying up for the EURO personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Honestly Mitch, if that insane PNA being forecasted is real, I think there would be a small % we'd see that epic shortwave that the GFS is showing drop farther S...Something to track at least if it is real, I'm staying up for the EURO personally. for you, absolutely....for us, I'd be happy with the .17" qpf the GFS drops and take my 2" and run until the "monster" comes out of the SW to play a week later, more or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 we might have a shot with the next clipper because I don't think that vortex will move too quickly http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=225ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150207+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Absolutely astonishing run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Absolutely astonishing run.... not for us....just another heart break and "no", it won't trend in our favor this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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