mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 When this thing first appeared it looked like a decent chance. One of my concerns was that even the good runs we're too close for comfort with slp track or required some convoluted phasing/cutting off. But it was still plenty far out in time to remain skeptical but quite interested. Op models are definitely not going to nail a complicated evolution d5+. Losing the front runner was pretty much the end of me believing it was going to happen for us. I was never attached to the event so it doesn't really sting much. The clipper gone blizzard disaster certainly stung a lot more. Next week and beyond looks like any event would be weak and sneaky. Maybe something bigger as the sharp amplification backs off. I'm not enthused by what I'm seeing for now. Pretty boring. ensemble mean seemed to always support their operational runs too it's almost like you can't believe the operationals or their ensembles now either....what's next, politicians? sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Really travesty that in "atmospheric sciences" seasonal trends cannot be part of the model programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Really travesty that in "atmospheric sciences" seasonal trends cannot be part of the model programming. you really have no idea how NWP works do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ensemble mean seemed to always support their operational runs too it's almost like you can't believe the operationals or their ensembles now either....what's next, politicians? sheesh The means did but there was a lot of spread. Just like the last event, there was always a nw cluster. GEFS never really had us in the game. The vast majority of solutions never looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 At least the Euro brings the -24C 850 line into our 'hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well after that Euro--got anything else for us to track? Must be something at d8-d10 that we track to failure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I like surprise storms the best...screw the pattern...something will pop out of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The means did but there was a lot of spread. Just like the last event, there was always a nw cluster. GEFS never really had us in the game. The vast majority of solutions never looked good. Which should be the lesson. The GFS and its ensembles are better than the Euro so until the Euro scores a coup, the heck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC154 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-061000-CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTHISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-154 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THECHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES INCENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OFCOLUMBIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTA GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKEBAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS EVENING..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAYLOW PRESSURE MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAYNIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOWAND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...SO PLEASE CONTINUE TOMONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Really travesty that in "atmospheric sciences" seasonal trends cannot be part of the model programming. i don't know how you would code trends into the models. if the models are coded well enough and have the right data, then the trends are just the output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 When this thing first appeared it looked like a decent chance. One of my concerns was that even the good runs we're too close for comfort with slp track or required some convoluted phasing/cutting off. But it was still plenty far out in time to remain skeptical but quite interested. Op models are definitely not going to nail a complicated evolution d5+. Losing the front runner was pretty much the end of me believing it was going to happen for us. I was never attached to the event so it doesn't really sting much. The clipper gone blizzard disaster certainly stung a lot more. Next week and beyond looks like any event would be weak and sneaky. Maybe something bigger as the sharp amplification backs off. I'm not enthused by what I'm seeing for now. Pretty boring. Agree with your analysis of the situation and the pattern...the lead vort trending north really made the evolution of the system more convoluted, and then the trailing vort trending north and weaker was the final nail. The pattern going ahead looks chilly but dry. We will be stuck on the back side of the trough with vorts diving down to our north. Any that amp will easily slide north of us. The pattern looks a LOT like that CFSv2 map Mitch was posting a week ago. I was never sure why some thought that was a good look, the trough axis looked way too far east to me, indicated cold but dry. Looks like that crap model was finally right. Looking ahead the trough axis looks to retrograde west eventually then we have to see what happens. Way too far out. Just like last year given the EPO and PNA cold is likely to linger into March so we may have one more period of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The means did but there was a lot of spread. Just like the last event, there was always a nw cluster. GEFS never really had us in the game. The vast majority of solutions never looked good. Yea I hope people don't misread this situation and pull out the whole "models showed snow then took it away" crap. Truth is the models never indicated we had a good chance. The majority of runs over any 24 hour period were a miss. Enough showed a hit to indicate there was a threat risk but nothing more. It was always low probability. Most of the false hopes this year were the same, the models teased but never gave a strong signal where a majority of guidance was good for more then 24 hours. The other problem is relying on the seasonal trend is not always going to work. There are definitely trends within patterns where the models are consistently mis-handling the pattern in a way that leads to a north trend, or progressive bias, or cold bias, whatever. The problem is subtle things that are driving the pattern can shift suddenly without us always noticing or knowing how that will change the models ability to diagnose the pattern. Last year all through Febuary every storm trended north. Then in March 2 storms in a row trended south and threw everyone for a loop. The pattern had shifted and a lot of us were left surprised because of relying on the seasonal trend. Back in 2011 the trend was for everything to go to our northeast then the late Janauary storm happened. It's obvious what the seasonal trend is this year and where the snow wants to hit on a macro scale, but at the meso scale level each storm may not conform to the seasonal norm and has to be handled on its own merits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well, so the Monday-Tuesday event went up in smoke, or so it seems. I kind of figured things would go that way once all the wackier interesting solutions disappeared. I was hopeful, but still wasn't overly excited. As others have said, it is/was complicated and that's not a good sign. The GFS/GEFS sure look cold in through pretty much the entire run, and they've looked that way for awhile now. Unfortunately, not much concrete is showing up in terms of what to track, though previous runs earlier this week had some potential. I will not be surprised if those "potential" things pop up from time to time once again. Whether they actually amount to anything remains to be seen. I also will not be surprised if we score something like an over-performing Clipper system (or similar, like the early January storm) that "suddenly" appears inside of two days. In short, it does not look overly exciting other than cold...but with the advertised pattern, I can't write things off and give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 you really have no idea how NWP works do you? It doesn't work. So you, therfore, share with us how and why it has produced a viable and valueable product this winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Which should be the lesson. The GFS and its ensembles are better than the Euro so until the Euro scores a coup, the heck with it. Actually, same as it always was, a compromise between the two still seems the best approach. The calculation may have now changed though from 60/40 Euro to 50/50. This event especially the GFS definitely trended towards the euro at H5 but not all the way, and the problem was we never even had any room to breath on the euro's best solutions. A compromise was no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It doesn't work. So you, therfore, share with us how and why it has produced a viable and valueable product this winter season. our advances in NWP are pretty amazing if you consider how far the field has come in the past 50 years -- I'm sorry your expectations are not in line with the reality of the problem and the shortcomings we still haven't overcome. here's a few titles you might be interested in -- at least educate yourself, then we can have a constructive conversation about how to improve NWP: http://www.amazon.com/Parameterization-Schemes-Understanding-Numerical-Prediction/dp/0521126762/ref=pd_cp_b_1 http://www.amazon.com/Fundamentals-Numerical-Weather-Prediction-Coiffier/dp/110700103X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Agree with your analysis of the situation and the pattern...the lead vort trending north really made the evolution of the system more convoluted, and then the trailing vort trending north and weaker was the final nail. The pattern going ahead looks chilly but dry. We will be stuck on the back side of the trough with vorts diving down to our north. Any that amp will easily slide north of us. The pattern looks a LOT like that CFSv2 map Mitch was posting a week ago. I was never sure why some thought that was a good look, the trough axis looked way too far east to me, indicated cold but dry. Looks like that crap model was finally right. Looking ahead the trough axis looks to retrograde west eventually then we have to see what happens. Way too far out. Just like last year given the EPO and PNA cold is likely to linger into March so we may have one more period of opportunity. because the precip map that went along with it showed average precip for the month well below temps, add to it average precip, and taking it as the monthly forecast it was, it would suggest at least normal snow still might happen, but definitely not the first 1/2 of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It doesn't work. So you, therfore, share with us how and why it has produced a viable and valueable product this winter season. seriously... what causes a trend in the models is them mishandling a driving factor in the pattern. Obviously if it was possible to fix that mishandling we would but modeling the atmosphere is kinda a complicated thing. If you think its so easy develop your own model already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 because the precip map that went along with it showed average precip for the month well below temps, add to it average precip, and taking it as the monthly forecast it was, it would suggest at least normal snow still might happen, but definitely not the first 1/2 of the month unfortunately our avg temps are high enough in Feb that it is VERY possible to get below avg temps, above avg precip and not get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It doesn't work. So you, therfore, share with us how and why it has produced a viable and valueable product this winter season. Really? I hope you're joking here somewhat, but fear you are being serious. Models are programmed, they are objective guidance and calculate parameters based upon the governing equations of motion, thermodynamics, physics, etc., within the limits of our ability to estimate those things and within our current computing ability. I'm over-simplifying here for sure and others more in the know can add more. But there's a lot of complicated interaction involved and to say they have not produced a viable or valuable product this winter season is pure bunk. It's pretty ridiculous and laughable to think you can code in something to say "hmmm, SNE is getting hammered this year, so let's make this low go north 100 miles to screw the Mid Atlantic and give Boston another foot because that's the seasonal trend!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 unfortunately our avg temps are high enough in Feb that it is VERY possible to get below avg temps, above avg precip and not get snow of course, it happened just like that in JAN, but like I said, you get a temp map and a precip map as a snap shot for a 1 month period just getting below normal temps around here is often a good start for snow chances, so that was positive; add to that the opinions of people like Wes saying it was a pattern that was reasonably good for snow, and it is very reasonable to be positive but, we've had about as bad a luck as we can get to avoid snow and no model or person will ever get that right over a 30 day forecast period c'est la vie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 our advances in NWP are pretty amazing if you consider how far the field has come in the past 50 years -- I'm sorry your expectations are not in line with the reality of the problem and the shortcomings we still haven't overcome. here's a few titles you might be interested in -- at least educate yourself, then we can have a constructive conversation about how to improve NWP: http://www.amazon.com/Parameterization-Schemes-Understanding-Numerical-Prediction/dp/0521126762/ref=pd_cp_b_1 http://www.amazon.com/Fundamentals-Numerical-Weather-Prediction-Coiffier/dp/110700103X I've read both and feel that they did not cover the topics properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I think its our expectations that are out of whack. We think we are going to be able to use models to accurately tell us what the sensible weather 5-7 out will be, and it just isn't possible. Most of the time, those progs will be wrong, whether you use one model or a combination, op runs or ensembles. Of course, most here are just mad that it won't snow, nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 For the record, I think the models have been pretty damn good, sadly, this winter. They show the possibility of snow 4-6 days out, but have pretty uniformly and quickly trended away from that each time. The modeling leading up to each event in the last 48 or so hours has ended up, sadly, being pretty accurate for our area. The only reason to hate the models is if you think they control whether or not we get snow. And...generally, I am rational enough to realize that's not the case. Generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 For the record, I think the models have been pretty damn good, sadly, this winter. They show the possibility of snow 4-6 days out, but have pretty uniformly and quickly trended away from that each time. The modeling leading up to each event in the last 48 or so hours has ended up, sadly, being pretty accurate for our area. The only reason to hate the models is if you think they control whether or not we get snow. And...generally, I am rational enough to realize that's not the case. Generally. That's what I'm saying. The models do well within about 72 hours. All the long range looking produces nothing but misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GFS is a good model. It is the new Dr. No. Just gotta deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 That's what I'm saying. The models do well within about 72 hours. All the long range looking produces nothing but misery. We know this year is north. Pretty average non-snow MA season. Just adjust expectations. Not saying that you personally don't. I kind of laugh when I look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We know this year is north. Pretty average non-snow MA season. Just adjust expectations. Not saying that you personally don't. I kind of laugh when I look now. below-average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 below-average. We never were a snow town. Average because it is cold and dry and windy. That we can count on every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 i don't know how you would code trends into the models. if the models are coded well enough and have the right data, then the trends are just the output. Artificial intelligence. Probably too costly for NWS to experiment with, but that's the wave of the future, CPUs that improve themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.