Herb@MAWS Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I fly into BWI late Monday night so that should guarantee snow. Can't complain about 60 and 70 degree wx in New Orleans tho. But still envying my friends in Goshen NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Next Sunday morning the GFS has me at -4 with 850's at -28.5 and Thicknesses of 491. WC of -20 to -30. This is all after a couple of inches of snow on Saturday. What an insane run. Let's see what this same time frame looks like on Thursday. By Thursday it will be drizzle and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GEFS like the idea of at least some transient blocking around the same time the Baja low in expected to eject. Euro not so much. Tend to lean toward the euro. Why break the cycle now? The pattern looks like a powder keg to me down the road....most likely a heartbreak storm track unless we can get perfect timing but with a major PNA ridge, endless cross polar flow and signs of the STJ breaking thru under the ridge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I really don't know what a triple phaser would look like because they are so rare and I haven't bothered to ever study 3/93 but, Euro looks close to something like what I would expect a triple phaser to look like at day 10. Of course, I could be completely wrong with my characterization, but it does show an interesting setup. Problem is, it looks to cut to our west, though prior maps and a loop suggest that the slp might pass to our south. Pay site maps depict this better than these links, but you can see what I'm talking about. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png A triple phaser could easily cut. But models will struggle to clearly depict suck a powerful system. Oddly 1993 shows up a lot in analogs lately so perhaps there is the chance if something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 A triple phaser could easily cut. But models will struggle to clearly depict suck a powerful system. Oddly 1993 shows up a lot in analogs lately so perhaps there is the chance if something like that.looking at the gfs now, I doubt itnext weekend is another ne bliz what a pile this has become Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 A triple phaser could easily cut. But models will struggle to clearly depict suck a powerful system. Oddly 1993 shows up a lot in analogs lately so perhaps there is the chance if something like that. 1993 was one of the longest leads on a storm that I can remember and that includes present day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 1993 was one of the longest leads on a storm that I can remember and that includes present day Yep. The models locked in about a week out on march 1993. One of the best predicted storms I can ever recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Globals are all showing the secondary forming off of nc now. Ggem has a nice stripe of precip but temps are off. Euro and gfs both show a little snow. A little snow would be nice from a system that's been a writeoff for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Globals are all showing the secondary forming off of nc now. Ggem has a nice stripe of precip but temps are off. Euro and gfs both show a little snow. A little snow would be nice from a system that's been a writeoff for days. This coming system? Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Last January's 2014 polar vortex events (at least two main events) were much better than anything we've had so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Globals are all showing the secondary forming off of nc now. Ggem has a nice stripe of precip but temps are off. Euro and gfs both show a little snow. A little snow would be nice from a system that's been a writeoff for days. Definitely would be nice. If the trend continues and the secondary meanders for a while, we would have come full circle from what was depicted a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I can't believe every time I open the GFS all I see is storm after storm hitting SNE. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This coming system? Good luck. lol- it's the only thing worth thinking about. The long range stuff is best left untouched until it becomes short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I can't believe every time I open the GFS all I see is storm after storm hitting SNE. WTF. it is, without a doubt, the most persistent weather pattern I've ever seen for a relatively small geographical area actually, I think they are going to start to have some real problems up there of the human suffering kind if the gfs is accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Last January's 2014 polar vortex events (at least two main events) were much better than anything we've had so far this winter. Yeah, we had that one day in early January that got below zero and only made it to about high single digits and low teens for the high. I think the coldest day this year was 3 for the low and 16 for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 lol- it's the only thing worth thinking about. The long range stuff is best left untouched until it becomes short range. Could see some stuff in the air at least maybe. I don't see how it ends up well.. I don't think the current models are even really suggesting much accum risk as is.. seems upside is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I can't believe every time I open the GFS all I see is storm after storm hitting SNE. WTF. My 100" prediction for Boston is looking better every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Could see some stuff in the air at least maybe. I don't see how it ends up well.. I don't think the current models are even really suggesting much accum risk as is.. seems upside is very low. Wait for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 it is, without a doubt, the most persistent weather pattern I've ever seen for a relatively small geographical area actually, I think they are going to start to have some real problems up there of the human suffering kind if the gfs is accurate On this sys they are scoring with the eventual main low waaaaay south too. I dunno if it will really continue but if it does it's pretty insane. Could be some issues for sure with the cold along with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Could see some stuff in the air at least maybe. I don't see how it ends up well.. I don't think the current models are even really suggesting much accum risk as is.. seems upside is very low. That's about it. Flakes flying. Up near the pa border could get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 check out bastardi's free video today on weatherbell. i dont care what you think of bastardi, it will cheer you up. a Miller-A is in our furture. we're due. it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We probably have an ok chance at a cold/light clipper event in the next 10 days. Just going off recent tendencies of models to overdo pv drops and cold it would seem that we could get something close enough and underneath us. Might get sheared out but there's just no way of knowing. Hopefully we get the 72-84 hour pop up on guidance and not something at 120+ that fails. I would expect any bigger storm down the line to end up with a west track unless something really lucky happens. Even so, if cold is in place the front could be ok. Scrolling the euro members @ d10 show a lot of interesting looks. Mega spread but even a good # of obvious west tracks look like cold is in place first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We probably have an ok chance at a cold/light clipper event in the next 10 days. Just going off recent tendencies of models to overdo pv drops and cold it would seem that we could get something close enough and underneath us. Might get sheared out but there's just no way of knowing. Hopefully we get the 72-84 hour pop up on guidance and not something at 120+ that fails. I would expect any bigger storm down the line to end up with a west track unless something really lucky happens. Even so, if cold is in place the front could be ok. Scrolling the euro members @ d10 show a lot of interesting looks. Mega spread but even a good # of obvious west tracks look like cold is in place first. our south trend of clippers we had at the beginning of the year vanished after our second hit sure would be nice to see that return, but none of the modeling suggests that it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 check out bastardi's free video today on weatherbell. i dont care what you think of bastardi, it will cheer you up. a Miller-A is in our furture. we're due. it's coming. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-february-7-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 our south trend of clippers we had at the beginning of the year vanished after our second hit sure would be nice to see that return, but none of the modeling suggests that it will The issue is trough axis too far east right now. The sharpness of the ridge/trough is something we definitely haven't seen this year. Even something that would easily come under would get run through the cuisinart. But that's assuming everything is modeled perfect. I doubt it is. I'm not that worried either way. We're in the homestretch. It either happens or doesn't. My expectations dropped off a cliff back in early/mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The issue is trough axis too far east right now. The sharpness of the ridge/trough is something we definitely haven't seen this year. Even something that would easily come under would get run through the cuisinart. But that's assuming everything is modeled perfect. I doubt it is. I'm not that worried either way. We're in the homestretch. It either happens or doesn't. My expectations dropped off a cliff back in early/mid January. Listen to Bastardi. He's convinced the trough pulls west and shows it on the GFS ensemble maps. If he's right and we score late FEB-MAR, I WILL buy a subscription with them next year. If not, it's "Trollville" for him here on out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The pattern this winter is basically a mini-me of the pattern we had last winter. Not good enough for the MA, especially with no luck and poor timing. I am resigned to it though, so whatever happens, happens from here on out. Would prefer a torch to dry vodka cold, but looks like I am outa luck on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Listen to Bastardi. He's convinced the trough pulls west and shows it on the GFS ensemble maps. If he's right and we score late FEB-MAR, I WILL buy a subscription with them next year. If not, it's "Trollville" for him here on out! Lol. He still saying DC will see 4" snow on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Lol. He still saying DC will see 4" snow on Monday? nah, he didn't talk about this storm at all he was talking mid/late FEB-MAR ala Long Ranger vid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Yep. The models locked in about a week out on march 1993. One of the best predicted storms I can ever recall.Models locked in on the idea of a massive storm but they were all over on details. Some had it cutting to Pittsburgh. Today we expect too much and would be frustrated if they all showed a 960 mb monster but some tracked it into western pa while others had it off Norfolk at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.