SnowMan Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Based on the recent GFS run how far north does the warmth get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 You're just scarred by 2009-10 as we all were but I would root on NAO before not. Yes, changing states bring the storms often. Positive can keep you very warm without EPO help and even then it may not be enough. You'd have to move 200 miles further north. Yes scarred! If I was still in Philly I'd be on my hands and knees praying for a -NAO. Up here the NAO is helpful but the Pacific is critical in supplying cold air across the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Based on the recent GFS run how far north does the warmth get? Mid-level or surface? I still think surface warmth over the interior is going to have a hard time moving north. Even the GFS scenario shows a clear kink in the isobars which indicates a triple point low...though not as defined as some earlier runs. But typically you aren't going to see 50s over the interior..and esp from N ORH county/Berks into NH...in this setup until maybe th every last second when things mix out..even then it might be just a brief spike to 38-40F. But if the primary keeps trending stronger, then it could be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GFS is a torch aloft. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yes scarred! If I was still in Philly I'd be on my hands and knees praying for a -NAO. Up here the NAO is helpful but the Pacific is critical in supplying cold air across the northern tier. True even in DC. Philly got a lot of snow last season...probably as much or more than you did at your location....all with a positive NAO. This storm is a mess but we always knew it would be. It's kind of the gateway as the last one with low expectations at least imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If there's a model that has led this more consolidated primary look, it's the GGEM. Funny how it's pretty much an awful model in the medium range, but it looks like the blind squirrel found the nut this time...it may have been a little too wound up, but it definitely has had most guidance trend toward it the past couple runs versus the other way around. There's still time though for things to end up back a bit more strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still have 3 days to trend this warmer too. Fooled me once,, not again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Still have 3 days to trend this warmer too. Fooled me once,, not again . Yeah very possible. I see you are no longer on the "there's no way this cuts" bandwagon. There's about 4 or 5 things going on at once which makes this system interesting to track from a met standpoint...SE ridge, very good arctic airmass ahead of system, energy in northern stream and energy in southern stream...lots of factors, and timing is just one more variable. This system is a good exmaple though of why a -NAO can be so helpful. It would probably be a MECS type system if we had a good block up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Mid-level or surface? I still think surface warmth over the interior is going to have a hard time moving north. Even the GFS scenario shows a clear kink in the isobars which indicates a triple point low...though not as defined as some earlier runs. But typically you aren't going to see 50s over the interior..and esp from N ORH county/Berks into NH...in this setup until maybe th every last second when things mix out..even then it might be just a brief spike to 38-40F. But if the primary keeps trending stronger, then it could be a different story. Cool thx. Based on this it sounds like icing could be more of the issue rather than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yeah very possible. I see you are no longer on the "there's no way this cuts" bandwagon. There's about 4 or 5 things going on at once which makes this system interesting to track from a met standpoint...SE ridge, very good arctic airmass ahead of system, energy in northern stream and energy in southern stream...lots of factors, and timing is just one more variable. This system is a good exmaple though of why a -NAO can be so helpful. It would probably be a MECS type system if we had a good block up there. Well I thought we could bring it west I just didn't think a warm 50 degree Rainer into NH was possible. Probably should make note for next system tooI thought we'd see some sort of secondary.. Thought that cold high would help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Funny how yesterday the mood in here when I checked in was very upbeat, because the model runs were trending colder and colder with each run which brightened the mood for most. Today, the trend is warmer and warmer for the weekend system now, and The clipper isn't looking so hot on the Euro anyway(not that we should be upset with that...the Euro has been horrid 5 days out this year), and the clipper train/taint is right back upon us again, just when we thought we might have shaken it off, and were trending into positive/colder storminess ideas. Perhaps that Cold air will be undermodeled like most were talking yesterday, and hang tougher longer...I guess we can hope?? Maybe Ray was right, when he said yesterday that the clipper/redeveloper was the First Real Legit Threat of this winter season. I sure hope that trends positively for us as we close in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Does the high retreat faster than the 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Lets remember that it is Wednesday morning and this storm won't be starting til Saturday afternoon. Could still trend in either direction and we have one friend on our side which is an Artic airmass being refreshed Thursday night-Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Does the high retreat faster than the 0z run? Yes...that comes sort of inherent with a stronger primary...the high gets shoved eastward rather than holding a bit more firm when there is a secondary trying to develop underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Kudos to Ryan yesterday on no snow pike south with this one. sometimes you'relike a pendulum that swings from one extreme to another, the cold air wedge is still in place at the beginning and I'm not convinced on 50 degrees in northern Connecticut. if you look at the GFS parallel temperatures they look pretty darn cold on Sunday morning and I am still concerned about icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well I thought we could bring it west I just didn't think a warm 50 degree Rainer into NH was possible. Probably should make note for next system too I thought we'd see some sort of secondary.. Thought that cold high would help us Meteorologically, the difference between a St. Lawrence runner and a fish storm are not really that great. It just feels like it when we only consider regional weather. The margins are always small. In the medium range, all options are almost always on the table. A slight change in the evolution of the jet can have a huge impact on the eventual solution. And it's not the NAO state or the position of a high pressure center that cause the storm track. These are all different manifestations of the same thing... the state of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 True even in DC. Philly got a lot of snow last season...probably as much or more than you did at your location....all with a positive NAO. This storm is a mess but we always knew it would be. It's kind of the gateway as the last one with low expectations at least imby. The way I read last year was NAO was not really positive at all considering Scand Blocking was off the charts; sure the official index may had a + next to NAO but the Scand block did the same exact job as a -NAO, Scand blocking is something non existent this season and with the EPO ridge being too far west this year, its really not gonna do much to help anyone along the east coast for snow. Chicago, yes, NYC to Boston, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 True even in DC. Philly got a lot of snow last season...probably as much or more than you did at your location....all with a positive NAO. This storm is a mess but we always knew it would be. It's kind of the gateway as the last one with low expectations at least imby. Since when does everybody KNOW if a storm is going to produce or not? That sounds like a positive mindset rationalization, which I like. But what do we say if the next storm cuts? I don't think we should be ruling anything out until the short term at the earliest. But I agree, at the moment the Sunday storm looks messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Since when does everybody KNOW if a storm is going to produce or not? That sounds like a positive mindset rationalization, which I like. But what do we say if the next storm cuts? I don't think we should be ruling anything out until the short term at the earliest. But I agree, at the moment the Sunday storm looks messy. So you just agreed with him though? What? I mean the storm is undoubtedly messy. I just don't know what you're questioning if you agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 So are we pretty set on timing for this shindig in SNE? Saturday evening start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Heights have always been modeled, and still are ... way way to high in the SE U.S. Even if this thing came out of the deep SW on a farther S trajectory, it would have disappeared/sheared to nothing. As it were, or is looking to be, rather, the best mid level dynamics and jet mechanics et al, are riding along the path of least resistance. ...way west. It's the only way the opening low maintains any impulse signature in the flow - because it was not going to do so through the fast velocities over the Tennessee Valley. Add in that the surface high is now speeding up it retreat in the guidance... that's really the last hope for the beleaguered winter ptype enthusiast... This is looking more and more like that January 1994 deal I described a couple days ago. Not an exact analog of course... but sensibly similar for short duration turn arounds. If the high moves off that fast, the gradient turns around and overwhelms any ageostrophic tendencies. In summary, that day in lore started at 13F at dawn up in Lowell, and ended at 58F on south winds gusting to 45mph just before midnight. It can happen folks. May not be that extreme this time, but it's a freeze-rain-freeze, with any lead transition in question (at best), and more likely the less. I remember that cold rain storm we had early this month, where there were winter weather advisories for icing in Middlesex and ORH Counties ... out to western Mass, and the system just up and started as straight rain at 32.4 for about everyone save a protected valley here and there ... the rub is that the 36 hours prior were solidly below freezing. Year of bad karma continues... But analytically, the flow is too compressed and fast overall through the next while actually. I even have my doubt about next week's clipper ... though that one would appear more destined to snow if it happens at all. The problem is ... again, the heights/ridging in the SE are stubborn, and that next impulse, as sort of an analog, skips off the top like a flat rock across a still pond. It might mean rapid deepening upon exits and a better strike up in NS/New F L. Whatever happens of these two events the upshot is that the band-aide rips off fast in both cases. System translation speeds limit duration, so if you happen to be getting something you don't like ... you won't have to wait long for it to be over, and the gun loaded for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Heights have always been modeled, and still are ... way way to high in the SE U.S. Even if this thing came out of the deep SW on a farther S trajectory, it would have disappeared/sheared to nothing. As it were, or is looking to be, rather, the best mid level dynamics and jet mechanics et al, are riding along the path of least resistance. ...way west. It's the only way the opening low maintains any impulse signature in the flow - because it was not going to do so through the fast velocities over the Tennessee Valley. Add in that the surface high is now speeding up it retreat in the guidance... that's really the last hope for the beleaguered winter ptype enthusiast... This is looking more and more like that January 1994 deal I described a couple days ago. Not an exact analog of course... but sensibly similar for short duration turn arounds. If the high moves off that fast, the gradient turns around and overwhelms any ageostrophic tendencies. In summary, that day in lore started at 13F at dawn up in Lowell, and ended at 58F on south winds gusting to 45mph just before midnight. It can happen folks. May not be that extreme this time, but it's a freeze-rain-freeze, with any lead transition in question (at best), and more likely the less. I remember that cold rain storm we had early this month, where there were winter weather advisories for icing in Middlesex and ORH Counties ... out to western Mass, and the system just up and started as straight rain at 32.4 for about everyone save a protected valley here and there ... the rub is that the 36 hours prior were solidly below freezing. Year of bad karma continues... But analytically, the flow is too compressed and fast overall through the next while actually. I even have my doubt about next week's clipper ... though that one would appear more destined to snow if it happens at all. The problem is ... again, the heights/ridging in the SE are stubborn, and that next impulse, as sort of an analog, skips off the top like a flat rock across a still pond. It might mean rapid deepening upon exits and a better strike up in NS/New F L. Whatever happens of these two events the upshot is that the band-aide rips off fast in both cases. System translation speeds limit duration, so if you happen to be getting something you don't like ... you won't have to wait long for it to be over, and the gun loaded for the next one. Since it will be more snow, it probably will be meager at best. Two more bullets left. This event wastes one, then potentially the clipper exhausts the supply of mulligans. Any failures post clipper this season will begin to eat away at my outlook. I should qualify that statement by adding that even a lousy 3" preceeding the rains this weeked will go along way towards quelling any anxieties on my behalf. Just get the seasonal tally mounting, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm posting this question here, too (from Model Discussion). I know Euro seems to be the preferred model around here followed by GFS. GEM just seems to get laughed at. But I don't know why this is. Why does the GFS and GFS Para appear to be in different places (literally) for the cutter on the 7th? Do we completely ignore the GEM and why (is the GEM an outdated model)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The bullets were never really loaded into the gun for the cutter nor the clipper as it was in fantasy range. I think, again, its more about the increased chances of something a week plus down the road. A weenie may say something like "everything is always a week away including the pattern change" but we have been focusing on the 5-10th range for anything meaningful for awhile now and it still seems right on time. That's still 5+ days out on guidance and modeling has no handle on that yet now. I think our first storm is likely a clipper or something that drops a widespread sub major snowfall across the area. Build off that. Should be arctic like if we can manage those frigid temps and get a snowfall or two in there. Hopefully something major on the table a week or two down the road materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The bullets were never really loaded into the gun for the cutter nor the clipper as it was in fantasy range. I think, again, its more about the increased chances of something a week plus down the road. A weenie may say something like "everything is always a week away including the pattern change" but we have been focusing on the 5-10th range for anything meaningful for awhile now and it still seems right on time. That's still 5+ days out on guidance and modeling has no handle on that yet now. I think our first storm is likely a clipper or something that drops a widespread sub major snowfall across the area. Build off that. Should be arctic like if we can manage those frigid temps and get a snowfall or two in there. Hopefully something major on the table a week or two down the road materializes. The range is irrelevant. I simply mean any kind of a threat, period, between now and mid January. What I mean by "another bullet" is essentially more time off of the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Since it will be more snow, it probably will be meager at best. Two more bullets left. This event wastes one, then potentially the clipper exhausts the supply of mulligans. Any failures post clipper this season will begin to eat away at my outlook. I should qualify that statement by adding that even a lousy 3" preceeding the rains this weeked will go along way towards quelling any anxieties on my behalf. Just get the seasonal tally mounting, again. That could still happen .. .don't get me wrong. I'm just enlightening others to the fact that there was always more going against this system for more vs less ptype desires. There's threading the the needle, then there's threading the quantum string - haha. If for some reason the slower retreating polar high scenario comes back ... then we have an icy mess in the interior, after a briefer period of snow for you guys on the coast prior to the ole 34.1 butt bang. But it's just the very recent trends re that polar feature ... either, scours even the interior; or makes it a 35 F rain fall for almost everyone. In order for ice, one needs a fresh input of lower DP air that keeps the wet bulb at or below freezing. Just cold air alone won't cut it (save for extreme cases). Conduction from above combined with latent heat of phase transition will bring the T above freezing and 86 icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GYX afternoon discussion was bullish on this event, considering the issues and its being barely inside 100 hr. Hope they're on target. Excerpt: This storm is still several days away but confidence it increasing that much ofthe area could receive 6" or more of snow through the weekendalong with spotty ice accretions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 John, I never took issue with any of your analysis. I'll be happy with 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 this 18z GFS run looks a little icier to me - fwi nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 this 18z GFS run looks a little icier to me - fwi nw Yeah a little more snow on the front end and a bit more ice...I've stated earlier that I do think there will be a triple point low that causes a significant delay in warming up the interior. Eventually it will mix out, but it could cause a pretty nasty few hours of icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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