moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If there was a -NAO I'd say yes..but with no snow cover, a Pig Se ridge, and the propensity this season of a 1980's type of winter..this is going to quickly go to rain from south to north. The clear trend has been stronger primary and less and less frozen.. nothing is going to hold off that warming clear up in SNH If I'm not mistaken, the propensity this season has been for surface temps to remain colder than progged resulting in at least two reasonably good icing situations here that were supposed to be largely rain. I'm hanging my hat on that propensity. Off for a walk in the DAR. 21.1/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 If there was a -NAO I'd say yes..but with no snow cover, a Pig Se ridge, and the propensity this season of a 1980's type of winter..this is going to quickly go to rain from south to north. The clear trend has been stronger primary and less and less frozen.. nothing is going to hold off that warming clear up in SNH You may be right, I just think you aren't giving enough credit to New England gradient climo by broadbrushing it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 I moved the psycho-analysis to the banter thread. Keep this one about model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Why does the GFS and GFS Para appear to be in different places (literally) for the cutter on the 7th? Do we completely ignore the GEM and why (is the GEM an outdated model)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What cutter on the 7th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What cutter on the 7th? What is the event (or former event) on the 7th? It looks like it dives south from Canada and off our south coast. GFS seems to have it as does GEM, GFS Para and Euro seem to take it away (Event could be 6th or 7th evidently). Is not this called a "cutter" considering its origin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What is the event (or former event) on the 7th? It looks like it dives south from Canada and off our south coast. GFS seems to have it as does GEM, GFS Para and Euro seem to take it away (Event could be 6th or 7th evidently). Is not this called a "cutter" considering its origin?Clipper. Cutters go (cut) W of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Crap being put out there with tolerance by the mods. Kevin take a break...you're in 4 year old mode and your ability to fuk up every thread is getting pretty old to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Clipper. Cutters go (cut) W of us. Sorry... I didn't even see it as I wrote it! I meant CLIPPER....I thought Mr. Nichols was playing with me when I first read his response... but I still didn't catch the mistake... maybe I've just seen too many cutters lately! Anyhow, does the clipper still seem to be in the works or is the inevitable trend away starting? If so, what's the cause of it trending away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What is the event (or former event) on the 7th? It looks like it dives south from Canada and off our south coast. GFS seems to have it as does GEM, GFS Para and Euro seem to take it away (Event could be 6th or 7th evidently). Is not this called a "cutter" considering its origin? Every model has the clipper, some are just weaker than the GFS. Its not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The only reason the models might lose the clipper idea is if the energy in the NE Pacific Ocean is weaker than modeled which will not dive far enough south to give us a swath of snow, if the disturbance is stronger than modeled than we could see much higher snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 18z GFS looks a tic or two colder the the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 18z GFS looks a tic or two colder the the 12z run Yeah the HP was initially in a better spot and the primary a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The only reason the models might lose the clipper idea is if the energy in the NE Pacific Ocean is weaker than modeled which will not dive far enough south to give us a swath of snow, if the disturbance is stronger than modeled than we could see much higher snowfall totals. The Euro has no semblance of the clipper at all when I quick glanced at it, I'm thinking that event is very much up in the air on if it's existence even comes about much less if it is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yeah the HP was initially in a better spot and the primary a bit weaker. I think tonight's 00z or tomorrow's 12Z are our last chance to see this thing go flatter...that energy is still in no man's land more or less, it reaches far WRN AK tonight and is in mainland areas tomorrow morning. I never trust any event beyond 72 anymore where there is energy coming down from those areas, much different story of its coming into the PAC NW or SW but coming form Siberia into AK and then into NW Canada is about the worst route possible. If that phase is a hair less this event is much colder for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Euro has no semblance of the clipper at all when I quick glanced at it, I'm thinking that event is very much up in the air on if it's existence even comes about much less if it is significant. Exactly. There is much more of a chance that the event doesn't even happen....way to early to be talking about snow amounts being light or Significant. I would venture to say, that if we are very fortunate, we may get a very light snowfall from it. But right now, there is a greater chance nothing happens at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I think tonight's 00z or tomorrow's 12Z are our last chance to see this thing go flatter...that energy is still in no man's land more or less, it reaches far WRN AK tonight and is in mainland areas tomorrow morning. I never trust any event beyond 72 anymore where there is energy coming down from those areas, much different story of its coming into the PAC NW or SW but coming form Siberia into AK and then into NW Canada is about the worst route possible. If that phase is a hair less this event is much colder for everyone. Kevin's sanity may hang in the balance of that energy swingin thru no mans land , for his sake and ours its nice to know a met looking at model output still gives this room to trend in right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What are you talking about? The EURO has the clipper reforming off the SE New England coastline at hour 168. Its still 7 days away, and while its possible nothing comes of it, the energy is still there so until that energy just disappears, the chances of snow are still on the table. I'm sorry but I see a low pressure center reforming off the coast of SE New England near and se of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 GFS still has the clipper, I'd take a nice small, cold snowy clipper to give us the winter look and feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What are you talking about? The EURO has the clipper reforming off the SE New England coastline at hour 168. Its still 7 days away, and while its possible nothing comes of it, the energy is still there so until that energy just disappears, the chances of snow are still on the table. I'm sorry but I see a low pressure center reforming off the coast of SE New England near and se of the benchmark. James, when have you not seen that scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 James, when have you not seen that scenario? The EURO shows that, that is all I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS looks about the same for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clipper looks decent on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS looks about the same for Saturday night. Won't take much model margin of error to tic this a few degrees colder by tomorrow night's runs. Obviously it could go the other way too but as all the players get on the field we wait to see if a weaker Low gets modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clipper looks decent on the GFS.It really dampened the s/w compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It really dampened the s/w compared to 18z. Yeah, but for here it's a better look. It won't take much to produce 2-3" anyways with this arctic cold air. Plenty of time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Won't take much model margin of error to tic this a few degrees colder by tomorrow night's runs. Obviously it could go the other way too but as all the players get on the field we wait to see if a weaker Low gets modeled. Yeah I mean maybe it was a tick warmer aloft, but we are arguing noise at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS looks about the same for Saturday night. 1042 sitting over CAR at 06z Sunday. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 1042 sitting over CAR at 06z Sunday. Not bad. Might grab a couple here if it works out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Quick glance at the gfs and para. They actually look pretty similar at hour 150 for the clipper system. Edit: gfs is a nice little snowfall for a lot of people, looks like some enhancement the further east you go. Maybe a 2-4/ 3-6" type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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