CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 What an absolute monster +PNA ridge on the GFS at the end of the run. Pretty fun run, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Para says no dice on the clipper. Kind of craps out as it approaches and doesn't develop anything in time off the coast. Main think to take from those runs is both still have the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah, but for here it's a better look. It won't take much to produce 2-3" anyways with this arctic cold air. Plenty of time too. This arctic cold clipper would go a long way towards settling down the anxiety on this forum...a couple to few inches of nice cold, sifting powder on the 00z GFS. I'm a sucker for 24-hr QPF totals 7 days out. If only we could get these types of evenly distributed snows and lock in the 144hr solution... from 0.2" up here to 0.2" in NH (New Haven) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah it wouldn't take much. I'd like for the low to be a little south and stronger so we can get some Atlantic inflow, but we'll see. Kind of out there still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The news is that the GFS still has the clipper, question is how fast it can redevelop off the East Coast of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This arctic cold clipper would go a long way towards settling down the anxiety on this forum...a couple to few inches of nice cold, sifting powder on the 00z GFS. I'm a sucker for 24-hr QPF totals 7 days out. If only we could get these types of evenly distributed snows and lock in the 144hr solution... from 0.2" up here to 0.2" in NH (New Haven) . gfs_precip_24hr_neng_55.png There's a lot of NE toaster bathers who are going to see snow twice this week, even if the systems are not winter porn. I'm really not convinced that any trend for the weekend is solidified. I still feel like a weaker primary SL and colder solution is possible especially for CNE and N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah it wouldn't take much. I'd like for the low to be a little south and stronger so we can get some Atlantic inflow, but we'll see. Kind of out there still. You could easily see how that stronger lift off-shore associated with the deepening low could translate back into eastern SNE if it all happens a bit quicker. With that type of cold airmass and the relative warmth of the Atlantic, any deepening low tracking south/east of the landmass has the potential to give a solid burst to those eastern areas. Happy New Year to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 00z EURO maintains clipper idea, a little stronger than 12z run yesterday. Shows a secondary reflection to the south of the main low. I think it shows a double disturbance jet structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 6z gfs looked pretty similar to 00z with regards to the clipper. Light event for many. Closer to something more, especially east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's probably a general 2-5 inch event. Maybe a little ocean enhancement in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 GFS is all snow here through 9-10z Sun with about 0.60-0.75" liquid. The NAM really torches the mid-levels after a few inches of snow. History says that warmer layer above H85 usually prevails in SWFEs so we'll see if the GFS caves on being cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This run of the GFS wasn't exactly a big omega thump at the beginning down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah that system needs to go 100 miles further south. There's time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Yeah that system needs to go 100 miles further south. There's time for that. Still tons of time on that one. At least it looks pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Still tons of time on that one. At least it looks pretty cold. Ptype won't be the issue. It may be one those fluff bombs with 0.2 giving 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 MEX has 65F at EWR on Sunday...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 This run of the GFS wasn't exactly a big omega thump at the beginning down this way. Yeah the omega goes north of us...the other guidance gives us a better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Ptype won't be the issue. It may be one those fluff bombs with 0.2 giving 4-5 inches. Yeah, I could definitely see that playing out. Looks like even if its moisture starved a few tenths could give the area a nice advisory event. There is still some upside if it can go a bit south. I think many folks would take even a 3-5 inch event at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This run of the GFS wasn't exactly a big omega thump at the beginning down this way. It's not pretty. Less signal for front-end = greater opportunity to have the system with the same brown grass it came in with. Hopefully, we'll see some changes, but the current look is not awe-inspiring. 26.1/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 It's not pretty. Less signal for front-end = greater opportunity to have the system with the same brown grass it came in with. Hopefully, we'll see some changes, but the current look is not awe-inspiring. 26.1/8 Well it was only referring to that run. You have a shot at a decent front end and net gain. You will have a gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looks like the Euro is stronger with the high for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Euro holds the cold air in over the interior quite well through 12z Sunday...there could definitely be some icing problems for a while after the initial snow thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I bet it warm sectors into the SE zones... This looks like an winter advisory to low end warn the further N you go, then getting pummeled by warm intrusion, perhaps even entirely removing said winter advisory to low end warn. Places like FIT in Mass, could get 3" of snow, .25 in glaze icing, then a temp burst to 45 F Typically in these scenarios there's a triple point... The models will inevitable underestimate the inhibition in the Ekman layer as the cold wins and the warm air never gets west of 495. Then, the occluded fropa brings a brief warm up actually post fropa, before the deeper CAA/backside arrives. But here? Wow, there is just so much tremendous transport from the SW in this case, ...it gets difficult to envision that as that lead polar high tips off shore, just how in the hell the atmosphere stays cold this time. Meanwhile, Plymouth might soar into the upper 50s, after a cold rain/wet snow beginning. I suppose if the high is later to leave, that would certainly impose a weird prolonged icing. I do think everyone sees some front end snow. Obviously the deeper NW-N we go, the more. I bet also that this is one of those scenarios where the obs over the Green Mountains will for a time show a rather steeply inverted thermal profile. I mean ...I'm seeing like 48F ...with 32 lingering in the lower else for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Looks like the Euro is stronger with the high for Saturday night. Does it retreat east or stay put longer? Is there still a signal for a secondary forming south of us. I'm talking about Saturday/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Does it retreat east or stay put longer? Is there still a signal for a secondary forming south of us. I'm talking about Saturday/Sunday. It still retreats...it's just a bit later to do so, and a stronger high to begin with. Yeah it forms a triple point, but we'd eventually mix out anyway as the triple point goes northeast and we get SW winds ont he FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 welp, off to the in-laws for Prime Rib, beer and cigar .. catch a bowl game. Running barefoot quickly across the old bed of dysfunctional embers -- you know, America. But the 500mb Euro looks like it has a little more identify with that clipper up over the B.C. area of western Canada. Who knows what it means. The 00z Euro was eventless for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 That Second push of cold air means business. I don't see how there won't be any icing over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 welp, off to the in-laws for Prime Rib, beer and cigar .. catch a bowl game. Running barefoot quickly across the old bed of dysfunctional embers -- you know, America. But the 500mb Euro looks like it has a little more identify with that clipper up over the B.C. area of western Canada. Who knows what it means. The 00z Euro was eventless for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Real man cold on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clipper looks a bit better this run...still not great (around an inch for eastern areas), but it looked healthier...with the airmass, it won't take much to get an advisory fluff event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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