Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 If this is the right thread .. Is that colder than 00z was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Man that is an icy look on the Euro after the initial thumpI think most of that QPF would be snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Heh, just eye-balling the synoptic charts for freebies ... this thing has zero continuity in the Euro. It just "feels" creepily like one of those scenarios where the model fires buck shot all over god's creation, but whatever verifies will DEFINITELY be at the absolute bottom of Scott's list - haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That little reinforcing shot I mentioned yesterday really helps us. I agree with Will too about the weaker primary. We've seen that as the secondary tries to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I have different colored threads lined up depending on what I want to say to train myself. I still think this ends up being a more traditional swfe. Interesting that we had a lead in swfe in the 2009-10 winter. I believe it was 12/9. I was working up in MHT and there was 9 inches before taint there while I believe BOS had 2 inches washed away. Of course the NAO went steroidal later that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I think most of that QPF would be snow for you. It it ends up verbatim, It would be significant, Not totally sold we stay all snow yet, But the air mass certainly is trending that way on these last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like I might get my ice storm after all. Still to far out though to be confident... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like I might get my ice storm after all. Still to far out though to be confident...There will be a transition to PL/ZR, but I wouldn't say "ice storm"...especially for ASH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Big boy cold shot again Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Can someone let us know if the Euro was colder for SNE and if so to what degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Ice in the Monadnocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Big boy cold shot again Tuesday. late week one is more impressive than that even. same kind of thing it was doing yesterday with that clipper developing with the arctic energy and cold pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Big boy cold shot again Tuesday. Yeah I honestly am pretty much sick of this storm already and can't wait for it to be over. It's been a fun stay-cation around the Holidays getting into the weather and so forth, but this thing is about as beat up every which way imaginable in both the charts and mankind's interpretation as it can be ... so much so that it is ad nauseam at this point. And it's still 5 days away!! Good god... For the general reader - I was just looking over the GEFs individual members beyond D6 ...it seems the general theme there is THAT is when people should be preening their snow-geese down. That period looks active. The PNA is negative, but it shows an upward tick that nears neutral before descending again. Erstwhile the EPO looks to remain negative, although to what magnitude unknown.. But every GEFs member has slight bump E of the western ridge, which does fit a rising PNA ...even if only for a short time. The entire conus N of the Mason Dixie is bathed in polar/arctic air, so any in situ systems/events are likely to be cold profiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Can someone let us know if the Euro was colder for SNE and if so to what degree? It was a little bit colder...maybe 1-2C at 850 during the important part of the front end precip. Verbatim it looks like advisory from pike northward..prob more like 1-3" for your hood. The trend of the antecedent airmass is good...so if we can get the shortwave dynamics to cooperate just a shade more, it could be a much larger front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 late week one is more impressive than that even. same kind of thing it was doing yesterday with that clipper developing with the arctic energy and cold pocket. Clipper redeveloper/late bloomer for Jan 7-8 looks nice as depicted. It's been showing up for a few runs...but regardless, yeah that airmass means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice redeveloped to bring the teeth of winter in, 498 thickness south of sne..wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 thank goodness for posters like coastalwx orhwx and typhtip who bring some common sense and good science to the discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 We have seen these systems before overperform with the clipper and then redevelopment leads to explosive deepening, some of the models are leaning this way, EURO is furthest north with the clipper low. Also 498dm thicknesses over the Gulf Stream = explosive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Only 1 of the 12 GFS ensemble members at 12Z are more amped than the Op run, 1 is identical, 5 are suppressed, 3 are similar, 2 have no storm whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It was a little bit colder...maybe 1-2C at 850 during the important part of the front end precip. Verbatim it looks like advisory from pike northward..prob more like 1-3" for your hood. The trend of the antecedent airmass is good...so if we can get the shortwave dynamics to cooperate just a shade more, it could be a much larger front end thump Thanks.. I know everyone is generally only concerned about where they live, so it's nice when you can break down other regions for us if others don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro fwiw has a nice redeveloper next week. The long range continues to look a bit stormy too. All the models show the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah, all three global models, GFS, GGEM and EURO show the redeveloper on the 7-8th, I like this period for our first widespread snowstorm of the season. Widespread 3-6" like storm system, with some enhancement near the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That ECMWF run would work...that WAA hits a wall east of the Greens/Berks spine. I doubt Dryslot would flip at all, at least while it's meaningful. Looks like 4-6"+ north of RT 2 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Well, I'm glad the 12z suite has continued to trend colder, a butt-hurt poster or two notwithstanding....even those further south into CT and RI now stand to see a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A bit weaker with the primary on the ensembles and hence the WAA. You can see how the warmer air aloft is not curving back to the NW over nrn NY state and into Ontario, it's more E-W looking in terms of the thermal gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A bit weaker with the primary on the ensembles and hence the WAA. You can see how the warmer air aloft is not curving back to the NW over nrn NY state and into Ontario, it's more E-W looking in terms of the thermal gradients. Any bagginess or 2ndary reflection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 A bit weaker with the primary on the ensembles and hence the WAA. You can see how the warmer air aloft is not curving back to the NW over nrn NY state and into Ontario, it's more E-W looking in terms of the thermal gradients. Def colder than last night's ensemble mean. So that's a good trend for snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like I might get my ice storm after all. Still to far out though to be confident... I hope we do. Nothing like kicking off a potential wintry stretch of weather with a pine top busting ice storm. Doubt we'll see much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Any bagginess or 2ndary reflection? Yeah, but it's tough to compare apples to apples, the ensembles may be a little quicker. It does have a hint of a triple point or secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Any bagginess or 2ndary reflection? Yeah, its a little more defined than the 00z mean...but still not it's own closed center or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.