powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'd take an aggregate foot. I like your area in this pattern if the SWFE parade starts up with sort of PA/NY tracks and redevelopment southeast of the arctic airmass. And if it ends up a more suppressed or Miller B-ish pattern, you'd also do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's not whiffing, so a matter of ptype. I could still see a whiff if the models are off on the timing or strength of the disturbance coming out of Canada...without the phase that thing in the SW will likely just dampen out as it crosses the Plains and Midwest in this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 This event is right in your and Dendrite's wheelhouse right now. Just far enough north to get the most thump with minimal mix, just far enough south to get the good juice. lol, I don't want it to be here right now, This really reminds me of a lot of the systems in 2007-2008, I know i keep referencing that winter but we had these SWFE pretty much the whole season that year so its hard not to ignore this look early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I could still see a whiff if the models are off on the timing or strength of the disturbance coming out of Canada...without the phase that thing in the SW will likely just dampen out as it crosses the Plains and Midwest in this flow. A total whiff? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A total whiff? No way. We've seen so many of those suckers the last few years do that, in 12-13 there must have been about 3-4 systems that looked great in the SW and even fooled the models at Day 4-6 into thinking we'd see a decent SWFE and then as they ejected into the Plains they got sheared to pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Let's see if we can stick to the model discussion in here and take the general discussion to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's not whiffing, so a matter of ptype. Its looking more like a whiff is off the table, That you can say at this time frame, But precip types is another story like has been mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I like your area in this pattern if the SWFE parade starts up with sort of PA/NY tracks and redevelopment southeast of the arctic airmass. And if it ends up a more suppressed or Miller B-ish pattern, you'd also do well. Yea, I could end up in a position to capitalize in both set ups. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Let's see if we can stick to the model discussion in here and take the general discussion to the banter thread. If someone wants to start a storm specific thread go right ahead it's seems like people want to discuss the potential more and more. I think it's also safe to assume we see a system of some sort over the weekend. We'll keep this thread for the models and open up the storm thread to discuss anything you want to do with the potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The only ice you'll see is the kind that Romo will be putting on his fanny. Really? I think Dallas is going to smoke Detroit. And so we can talk about the model discussion: Based on the models at the present my forecast for this weekend is that a storm is possible. Could be snow, could be rain, could be ice. Basically we have no clue. Just be happy there is a storm possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Out of all the guidance, really only the GGEM doesn't give some sort of front end snow/ice to SNE. That will start to mean more over the next 24-36 hours...right now, we are still in that day 5ish range for models which is still quite volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Out of all the guidance, really only the GGEM doesn't give some sort of front end snow/ice to SNE. That will start to mean more over the next 24-36 hours...right now, we are still in that day 5ish range for models which is still quite volatile. Unless other models jump on that track, I think we can toss it as its the furthest warm and west solution on the table, Its notorious for a warm bias i believe anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 What are the chances (probabilistic) of it passing south of us or redeveloping south of us in such as way as we get mostly snow/frozen? I want the meteorology of this not fantasy situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 What are the chances (probabilistic) of it passing south of us or redeveloping south of us in such as way as we get mostly snow/frozen? I want the meteorology of this not fantasy situations. Well at 5 days away, you aren't going to get far from fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Well at 5 days away, you aren't going to get far from fantasy. Yeah, forgot how far out it is. But in real life, what turns a cutter into an off coast storm in the situation we have set up when there is no -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yeah, forgot how far out it is. But in real life, what turns a cutter into an off coast storm in the situation we have set up when there is no -NAO? You would need timing to be off. For instance you may want that upper level low to eject quicker out of the southwest so that any energy trying to dive south from the PV can't phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You would need timing to be off. For instance you may want that upper level low to eject quicker out of the southwest so that any energy trying to dive south from the PV can't phase with it. Saw the results of that on a few previous runs with not good results as the s/w in the SW was much weaker and had a shredded look to it and whiffed the region pretty much, I don't think we will see that in this instance but not totally off the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Saw the results of that on a few previous runs with not good results as the s/w in the SW was much weaker and had a shredded look to it and whiffed the region pretty much, I don't think we will see that in this instance but not totally off the table I know it could be wrong, but I guess I always had that vision of last nights runs in my head. I don't expect much here in my locale, but could be a nice event to kick start NNE. I think I even said that a few days ago. Probably some snow to ice and cold rain inland around here. Hopefully something like the 00z GFS happens. Either way, I care more about afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Out of all the guidance, really only the GGEM doesn't give some sort of front end snow/ice to SNE. That will start to mean more over the next 24-36 hours...right now, we are still in that day 5ish range for models which is still quite volatile. Yea and it's not like we really care if the GGEM gives us snow. I mean it's not the best guidance to derive forecasts by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 will be interesting to see how guidance does with this. HP is in a so-so position. Should be some CAD for sure but flow is there to yank the low level cold out too. euro and ggem push temps well into the 50s across SNE (ggem is actually like low 60s) as the warm front barrels through. on the one hand, that seems high given antecedent air mass and HP E/NE of Maine. but on the other, there's no great mechanism to stop it from happening either with (thus far) only weak indications of any kind of triple point (though GFS is more bullish on that idea) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nice look on the 12z GFS, Looks to keep all frozen NNE with Snow/Ice/rain into MA and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like the GFS is back to a bit colder. Shortwave is a bit more dampened out...so I'm guessing it will end up a bit colder. This is based on 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 obviously it's been stated...but man any semblance of ridging to our NE would have been so helpful with this system coming up. it would've probably evolved to a more traditional SWFE in the sense of how we think of them in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Looks like the GFS is back to a bit colder. Shortwave is a bit more dampened out...so I'm guessing it will end up a bit colder. This is based on 108 hours. Yeah it's sort of east of the s/w diving south through the Plains, instead of SE of it, waiting to get scooped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 That's a pretty solid shot of snow on the GFS for SNE...I'd bet the interior would have trouble flipping to any liquid with that redevelopment of a sfc reflection to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Pops secondary just east of the cape this run and saves many from getting flooded with milder air in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That's a pretty solid shot of snow on the GFS for SNE...I'd bet the interior would have trouble flipping to any liquid with that redevelopment of a sfc reflection to the south. yeah nice solid thump. that's the kind of evolution folks will need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 yeah nice solid thump. that's the kind of evolution folks will need. It avoids a full phase with the northern stream this run...that's the timing aspect that's been harped on a bunch...small difference in timing with the southwest energy can have a large effect on the sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 12z Para better then its 06z run, But the primary stays strong and stays to our NW with no secondary development, Front end snow/ice/rain with mainly rain into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Para says what front end in SNE? Maybe a very brief burst of snow chnanging to mostly rain. NNE is snow/mix/rain on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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