weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Book swfe. 12/16/07 is Kevin's favorite storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Reminds me a lot of the 12/16/07 high. Obviously details like that don't mean much, but this run is similar except the storm is a shade further west, so we probably flip to a bit more rain than that one (well any rain would be more than that one since my high that day was 31), but that would still prob be a pretty big thump and you know the interior prob wouldn't warm in that scenario. Was that the storm where everyone left work at the same time "early" and fuked everybody else....where 20 min commutes became 10 hrs....lol I went my "back way" and my commute was maybe 15 min longer than normal....12 miles total.... Waiting For Winter.....Keeping the Faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'll be glad when just one model of the gfs is running. Sucks to get good and bad news at the same time. Para has kind of gone full circle here in less than a day. Relatively suppressed to a cutterish solution. Can't say I really mind the gfs solution. Probably like 3-6, 4-8 south of the pike and 6-10+ north. Would more than likely be a net gain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'll be glad when just one model of the gfs is running. Sucks to get good and bad news at the same time. Para has kind of gone full circle here in less than a day. Relatively suppressed to a cutterish solution. Can't say I really mind the gfs solution. Probably like 3-6, 4-8 south of the pike and 6-10+ north. Would more than likely be a net gain for all And not know if you should side with the old or the new, Been some pretty vast differences when you compare the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Was that the storm where everyone left work at the same time "early" and fuked everybody else....where 20 min commutes became 10 hrs....lol I went my "back way" and my commute was maybe 15 min longer than normal....12 miles total.... Waiting For Winter.....Keeping the Faith Nah. That was 12/13/07 that you're thinking of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Was that the storm where everyone left work at the same time "early" and fuked everybody else....where 20 min commutes became 10 hrs....lol I went my "back way" and my commute was maybe 15 min longer than normal....12 miles total.... Waiting For Winter.....Keeping the Faith That was 12/13/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 And not know if you should side with the old or the new, Been some pretty vast differences when you compare the two Yup. I have no idea which one is better or if you can even tell. I've seen a bit of met commentary that says its either a toss up or its scoring worse than the old gfs. II bet you can guess which one I'm rolling with at the moment.... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 CANADIAN looks like it will be pretty amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 GGEM looks like a wound up cutter...rain right into Quebec, lol. Gonna be a long few days tracking this one. It will be interesting to see the Euro after it whiffed us south today. Though I expect it to come back given the ensembles were much more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Cmc looks like it's taking the low through Chicago. Northing like consensus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yup. I have no idea which one is better or if you can even tell. I've seen a bit of met commentary that says its either a toss up or its scoring worse than the old gfs. II bet you can guess which one I'm rolling with at the moment.... Lol Two weeks and it will be all we have, So we will have to compare it with the global models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 CMC takes the low through MSP actually. It's so far west that the warm air flood is west of us....lol. Does make it a 970 low trying to turn the NAO eventually. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 0z GGEM really likes the early phase, That run is the most extreme we have seen, I question that, Pretty much a west outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Was that the storm where everyone left work at the same time "early" and fuked everybody else....where 20 min commutes became 10 hrs....lol I went my "back way" and my commute was maybe 15 min longer than normal....12 miles total.... Waiting For Winter.....Keeping the Faith 12/16/07 was the storm I forecasted like 1-2" of snow then sleet to rain for SE mass/RI and we ended up with like 5-8". I woke up that next morning for my dayshift at 630 am or something like that expecting to hear pingers tearing the paint off my house but instead there was complete silence and a white glow outside. I was like "^#$%^". Then I drove to work in some of the heaviest snow I can remember. lol. I was always thankful that was a Sunday morning and not Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Book swfe. 12/16/07 is Kevin's favorite storm. Dude that's Arguably MY Favorite Storm. #1 on the Surprise List. And I Never use Dude lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 And not know if you should side with the old or the new, Been some pretty vast differences when you compare the two The para was completely awful in one storm that we had...I think it was the Thanksgiving storm. It was a disorganized offshore mess almost up until go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The para was completely awful in one storm that we had...I think it was the Thanksgiving storm. It was a disorganized offshore mess almost up until go-time. We may be down to one model to rely on going forward, I don't like seeing these huge differences between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 MEX numbers for Gerald... BTV 8 CON 8 PWM 8 ORH 6 BOS 4 BDL 4 PVD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nogaps cuts this to Milwaukee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Nogaps cuts this to Milwaukee What about the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro is a pretty robust SWFE sat night and sun...but 925-850-700 warmth floods north...snow to sleet to rain even up here. 1035mb high weakens and moves off to the easy pretty quickly...over eastern new brunswick by onset. +10c at 850 over mount tolland 12z sunday...scorcher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro is a pretty robust SWFE sat night and sun...but 925-850-700 warmth floods north...snow to sleet to rain even up here. 1035mb high weakens and moves off to the easy pretty quickly...over eastern new brunswick by onset. +10c at 850 over mount tolland 12z sunday...scorcher. Thanks. Well at least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 MEX numbers for Gerald... BTV 8 CON 8 PWM 8 ORH 6 BOS 4 BDL 4 PVD 2 Clearly not using the para just yet in mos calculation. Euro and old gfs aren't that far off considering this is a d5 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro isn't very kind to the cities and 95 belt. Would likely be quick flip, but snow hangs on further north and west. Not far from a better front end thump really. We'll see if this tracks any further south, many in SNE would be quite pleased if the look continues to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Euro isn't very kind to the cities and 95 belt. Would likely be quick flip, but snow hangs on further north and west. Not far from a better front end thump really. We'll see if this tracks any further south, many in SNE would be quite pleased if the look continues to improve. That's a huge jump from the 12z run lol. From partly sunny north of he Pike to a low going near BTV and Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Man the 00z GFS was a SWFE parade out to day 16. That's a nice gradient look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Look at that 1038 high north of Maine on the Euro..That isn't going to give up ground. You want to see a big icestorm signature..That's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Look at that 1038 high north of Maine on the Euro..That isn't going to give up ground. You want to see a big icestorm signature..That's it The only ice you'll see is the kind that Romo will be putting on his fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'd put the overnight runs into the "not so great" category. Seemed like 1) they all have a system Saturday night/Sunday 2) they have all moved it west of us, including the EC (which had been a whiffer) and the Canaadian which I believe had been consistent with a stronger system tracking just south of us. I'd be more comforted on having some model keep things south of NE. ALL of them going west puts up a flag to me. Of course, still lots of time to go. Regardless, we'll have some chilly air before and after they system. 17.5/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The only ice you'll see is the kind that Romo will be putting on his fanny. There's a pretty big CAD signal there.You aren't scouring out low level cold with a strong high position like that. Plus you'd probably see some sort of weak secondary developing off of like ACk or something.Just conjecture at this point..but that's an ice signal verbatim on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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