SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Torch city! +5 up here as well Impossible I thought temps were near normal this month and not torching. Of course what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 wow just checked allentowns numbers and they are plus 5 for December. talk about torching lol . In about seven years when the new averages come out, it may be very tough to achieve a statistical 'torch'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This pattern is atrocious. Wow when you have gone negative we really truly are screwed. Cold dry, cutter warm, cold dry, cutter warm is the absolute worst scenario in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's almost as if that pattern change locked in until the March 93 storm and cold and snowy 93-94 winter. in a way it's like the lack of blocking since Hurricane Sandy....2 years and can't buy a block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's almost as if that pattern change locked in until the March 93 storm and cold and snowy 93-94 winter. Save for the end of 1989...there was no winter in this region from March 1987 through January 1993...just short of six years. Winter resumed in February 1993...with a cold and reasonably snowy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sorry to do this to everyone, but I think it's time to throw in the towel on the winter. While we may see a light event or two or three, the threat of moderate or greater events is becoming less and less likely. The PAC jet is too strong and we cannot get the Atlantic to cooperate in anyway. I've heard enough about stratospheric warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sorry to do this to everyone, but I think it's time to throw in the towel on the winter. While we may see a light event or two or three, the threat of moderate or greater events is becoming less and less likely. The PAC jet is too strong and we cannot get the Atlantic to cooperate in anyway. I've heard enough about stratospheric warming. I don't have a good feeling either but seems too early to throw in the towel. It could flip a month from now, give us 2 or 3 good events and get us near our seasonal average. A week ago things looked good..then the next day bad again..then everyone was back on board. Basically going further out than 10 days we just have no idea what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I don't have a good feeling either but seems too early to throw in the towel. It could flip a month from now, give us 2 or 3 good events and get us near our seasonal average. A week ago things looked good..then the next day bad again..then everyone was back on board. Basically going further out than 10 days we just have no idea what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I don't have a good feeling either but seems too early to throw in the towel. It could flip a month from now, give us 2 or 3 good events and get us near our seasonal average. A week ago things looked good..then the next day bad again..then everyone was back on board. Basically going further out than 10 days we just have no idea what's going to happen. give me two good weeks and another late snowfall...That happened in 1995 and a few mediocre winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 give me two good weeks and another late snowfall...That happened in 1995 and a few mediocre winters... 95 was one decent storm. Only an 83 like blizzard can save this winter. We definitely seem to be in an all or nothing phase though. Even the awful 80s had nothing as bad as 01-02 or 11-12. I had at least one snow day every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 the standard deviation for snow seasons has increased from eyeballing the central park snow graph. more duds and more blockbusters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 That chart is really remarkable. In the past 20 years we've had some incredibly snowy periods yet 4 out of the top 10 least snowiest also occurred in the past 20 years. Correct analysis of increase of standard deviation regarding snowfall. Really amazing how a pattern around here could be the difference between 40-50"+ and under 10". Just how awful does a pattern have to be when we can't even manage 5" in 3+ months. I've seen a few squalls drop a few inches in a hour or less. I disagree about closing the book on winter because there's far more cold out there than years like 01/02 and especially 11/12. Given the active jet stream along with much more cold air available I would be shocked if we fell into that bottom 10 category by the end of winter. You can't close the book on winter before the ball even drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sorry to do this to everyone, but I think it's time to throw in the towel on the winter. While we may see a light event or two or three, the threat of moderate or greater events is becoming less and less likely. The PAC jet is too strong and we cannot get the Atlantic to cooperate in anyway. I've heard enough about stratospheric warming. the ol' reverse psychology on December 31st after a below normal December snowfall at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Very extreme variation from year to year since the early 90's with some of the biggest duds following the best years. 93-94.....53.4 94-95.....11.8 95-96.....75.6 96-97.....10.0 10-11.....61.9 11-12.....7.4 13-14.....57.4 14-15.....? We've had many close calls to being completely shutout for the winter too, 91-92, 94-95, 97-98, 01-02 all very close, 91-92 entered March with 0.7 inches I think and the other 2 years were one storm that easily could have not happened if something went wrong. I still think 72-73 will eventually be broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We've had many close calls to being completely shutout for the winter too, 91-92, 94-95, 97-98, 01-02 all very close, 91-92 entered March with 0.7 inches I think and the other 2 years were one storm that easily could have not happened if something went wrong. I still think 72-73 will eventually be broken. 72-73 is tuff to beat. Honestly I think harder to beat then the other side with 95-96. Our overall climate has become wetter there is no denying that. So all it takes is precip and normally cold January or February airmass and you beat 72-73. It's allot harder for that to not happen then to happen. And this is not that winter there is cold air around and plenty I moisture so If you roll the dice enough times it eventually happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 72-73 is tuff to beat. Honestly I think harder to beat then the other side with 95-96. Our overall climate has become wetter there is no denying that. So all it takes is precip and normally cold January or February airmass and you beat 72-73. It's allot harder for that to not happen then to happen. And this is not that winter there is cold air around and plenty I moisture so If you roll the dice enough times it eventually happens 01-02 was very close. 97-98 was saved by a late March noreaster that flipped to snow (wasn't predicted). Otherwise we could have had under 1" that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ok, time to be positive people and I know that can be hard to do given the 'atrocious pattern' we are in. On the bright side...el nino winters supposedly begin late from what I recall. We have 2 solid months to cash in. It cant really get much worse....I mean it can but we are going to bottom out and reach the worst of this soon....and then, it will be time for things to start getting better. Remember, it can only get better after some of the mid-month torch progs. Keep reminding ourselves, it can only get better. Happy New Year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 01-02 was very close. 97-98 was saved by a late March noreaster that flipped to snow (wasn't predicted). Otherwise we could have had under 1" that winterExactly enough dice rolling and it happened.11-12 down in long beach was pretty damn close too with about an inch during the October storm and 2 during January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Ok, time to be positive people and I know that can be hard to do given the 'atrocious pattern' we are in. On the bright side...el nino winters supposedly begin late from what I recall. We have 2 solid months to cash in. It cant really get much worse....I mean it can but we are going to bottom out and reach the worst of this soon....and then, it will be time for things to start getting better. Remember, it can only get better after some of the mid-month torch progs. Keep reminding ourselves, it can only get better. Happy New Year!! This El Nino is barely even in existence right now, it may be yet another reason we're having problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 This El Nino is barely even in existence right now, it may be yet another reason we're having problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need a miracle Reminds me of a song from the 80s . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Potent little clipper after the next storm could offer us some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Potent little clipper after the next storm could offer us some hope. Hope is a dangerous thing sometimes . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Are we even in the Nino yet? Or are we in neutral enso? Weather and also life would be dull without hope. Just don't set expectations too high in this pattern. I am hoping the clipper trends stronger and we get some nicely timed storms coming from Southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Are we even in the Nino yet? Or are we in neutral enso? Weather and also life would be dull without hope. Just don't set expectations too high in this pattern. I am hoping the clipper trends stronger and we get some nicely timed storms coming from Southern energy. I'm just a big weenie and hedging against disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Are we even in the Nino yet? Or are we in neutral enso? Weather and also life would be dull without hope. Just don't set expectations too high in this pattern. I am hoping the clipper trends stronger and we get some nicely timed storms coming from Southern energy. It appeared we were definitely headed there for a time but the stall was hit again, now it all depends who you talk to and what thresholds you use but many argue its neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Exactly enough dice rolling and it happened. 11-12 down in long beach was pretty damn close too with about an inch during the October storm and 2 during January. My total was 2.4" that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 the ol' reverse psychology on December 31st after a below normal December snowfall at NYC Member Title Ex AW Con - Just Served 5 For Bump Trolling Lol. Did you add that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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