December Banter

[NCHurricane]

Mines comment be direct to any1 who think that way? I go after thos too metts to if they'd agrey wit u. Back two da modelz.

 

Sorry, but I had to.

[Bsudweather]

Im not trying to start anything, but I just think its funny he was telling people on Robert's FB page that everyone over here was a bunch of "Weenies" but yet he comes back over here when he gets ran off everywhere else.

[mackerel_sky]

How much rain do you think I will get over the next few days? Over or under for 5 inches?

Probly a few inches short of 5 inches , you are!

[metalicwx366]

Well it is 6:15 pm EST. The solstice occurred at 6:03 pm. The sun angle is already worse than it was 12 minutes ago. Winter cancel.

Good lord. First off, snow rates trump sun angle and ground temps. It can be 100 degrees the day before and snow will still accumulate if it rains 1+ inch rates per hour. Second, if it snows at night, the sun angle will have no effect. The moon angle has been shown in previous snowstorms that occurred at night to have no effect on holding down accumulations. Not sure why everyone is cancelling winter because the solstice has passed. We have had plenty of snowstorms after the solstice.

[Hvward]

Good lord. First off, snow rates trump sun angle and ground temps. It can be 100 degrees the day before and snow will still accumulate if it rains 1+ inch rates per hour. Second, if it snows at night, the sun angle will have no effect. The moon angle has been shown in previous snowstorms that occurred at night to have no effect on holding down accumulations. Not sure why everyone is cancelling winter because the solstice has passed. We have had plenty of snowstorms after the solstice.

Sarcasm- A cutting, often ironic remark intended to express contempt or ridicule.

Lets all say it together now "Sarcasm".

[jshetley]

I just hope we get the 2-3 inches of rain the GFS shows here in upstate SC.

[metalicwx366]

I just hope we get the 2-3 inches of rain the GFS shows here in upstate SC.

Nope. We are going to rob all the moisture down here.

Hunter, since you can read their minds, how much rain will I get over the next few days?

[Hvward]

Hunter, since you can read their minds, how much rain will I get over the next few days?

58% chance of a Sharknado. Massive widespread improvements.

[Isopycnic]

Good lord. First off, snow rates trump sun angle and ground temps. It can be 100 degrees the day before and snow will still accumulate if it rains 1+ inch rates per hour. Second, if it snows at night, the sun angle will have no effect. The moon angle has been shown in previous snowstorms that occurred at night to have no effect on holding down accumulations. Not sure why everyone is cancelling winter because the solstice has passed. We have had plenty of snowstorms after the solstice.

[HKY_WX]

i got snow yesterday, who's complaining?

[WidreMann]

People have some problems with the moon and weather.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34716-may-31st-june-2nd-storm/#entry1572750

[franklin NCwx]

i got snow yesterday, who's complaining?

lol.. I got more in November than so far in Dec

[Brick Tamland]

People try to say that December in the SE isn't a month we get snow. Bollocks, we can and do get winter storms in December. The last two weeks of December are right up there with the first two weeks of March. We have started burning prime climo time IMO. That's fine and dandy if we cash in during Jan-Feb but we have essentially decided that it's ok to throw away December and push our chips into Jan-Feb. That is ok if it works out but in turn it leaves a smaller window of error if things don't go as planned. People should be on edge as the window to cash in shrinks by the day. JMO.

There goes Mr Positivity again who is so bullish for this winter.

We hardly ever get snow here in my area in December. That is why the 2010 Christmas snow and the 2002 ice storm were such a big deal. January and February are when we get snow. It is rare to get any in December. It has been that way as long as I have been alive.

[tramadoc]

Hi everyone. I lurk more than post. I live in Elizabeth City and Ronnie B lives here as well. He blocked me on Facebook for disagreeing with him on some model stuff last winter. I see he has the inate ability to tick people off no matter where he goes. Great discussions by the way. I'm learning quite a bit from all of you. Thank you much.

[deltadog03]

YES, we are starting to get into PRIME territory when it comes to the winter timeframe for producing wintry weather.  However, we really do live in the SE.  YES, I looooooove winter weather, but heres the thing...We have more crappy weeks than good weeks.  I really think JAN should be good, but probably back and forth.  FEB might just be B2W cold.  

[Isopycnic]

People have some problems with the moon and weather.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34716-may-31st-june-2nd-storm/#entry1572750

 

 

[jburns]

Hi everyone. I lurk more than post. I live in Elizabeth City and Ronnie B lives here as well. He blocked me on Facebook for disagreeing with him on some model stuff last winter. I see he has the inate ability to tick people off no matter where he goes. Great discussions by the way. I'm learning quite a bit from all of you. Thank you much.

No need to discuss him any more. He's gone.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Love it! This sums up everything that we have seen since late Nov when models were showing a major pattern change after the tenth. Since then the score is Lucy 10 and Charlie 0. We all know which one us weather nerds represent And this precisely why I have no confidence in any pattern change until it happens. I hope you are all right about Jan and Feb, but until we see it, I see no reason to expect anything other than what we have gotten.

I think something I have learned from the last few winters is that I can't make a list of the important factors ( NAO, QBO, ENSO, PNA, Siberian snow cover, SSW, etc) and check them off to come up with a reasonable outlook. That is too simplistic a formula and there are too many extraneous factors with unpredictable outcomes to produce a forecast with a high degree of confidence. These indices are tools and clues, but it is far more complicated than making a checklist of the "key" factors that help.

[Brick Tamland]

Love it! This sums up everything that we have seen since late Nov when models were showing a major pattern change after the tenth. Since then the score is Lucy 10 and Charlie 0. We all know which one us weather nerds represent And this precisely why I have no confidence in any pattern change until it happens. I hope you are all right about Jan and Feb, but until we see it, I see no reason to expect anything other than what we have gotten.

I think something I have learned from the last few winters is that I can't make a list of the important factors ( NAO, QBO, ENSO, PNA, Siberian snow cover, SSW, etc) and check them off to come up with a reasonable outlook. That is too simplistic a formula and there are too many extraneous factors with unpredictable outcomes to produce a forecast with a high degree of confidence. These indices are tools and clues, but it is far more complicated than making a checklist of the "key" factors that help.

And coming into this winter all the important factors were supposed to be on our side for a big winter. There has never been as much consensus from mets saying this since these boards have been around. Almost all that posted here called for above average snow. If it doesn't end up that way, a lot of mets are going to be wondering what it really takes for a big winter here and why it didn't happen if all the factors were supposed to be there.

[Brick Tamland]

All it takes is a. - NAO!

That's the magic bullet, and we can't buy one!

And if it doesn't happen, the mets will have to go back and figure out why. Almost all if them were.calling for it.

[griteater]

 

And coming into this winter all the important factors were supposed to be on our side for a big winter. There has never been as much consensus from mets saying this since these boards have been around. Almost all that posted here called for above average snow. If it doesn't end up that way, a lot of mets are going to be wondering what it really takes for a big winter here and why it didn't happen if all the factors were supposed to be there.

 

And here it is, the newly released Brickbot 2015 from EA Sports.  Get yours fast while still in stock!

[LithiaWx]

There goes Mr Positivity again who is so bullish for this winter.

We hardly ever get snow here in my area in December. That is why the 2010 Christmas snow and the 2002 ice storm were such a big deal. January and February are when we get snow. It is rare to get any in December. It has been that way as long as I have been alive.

Feel free to put me om ignore if my realistic view of winter is too much for your weenie heart to handle. How's that pattern change been working out for you? Still waiting I see.... When I was telling you that it wasn't coming when you thought you did you called me a pessimist. That was me reading everything and coming to a conclusion, it happened to be correct. Yes, things look better for a pattern change than they did two weeks ago but reality is the change may not be what we need and want. I've said from November that I had high hopes for Jan-Feb that hasn't changed and my post that you quoted doesn't mean I feel any different than I did two months ago. All I am saying is that he stakes are higher and the window for error is shrinking by the day... All facts, not opinion. You bought into the hype that some folks were throwing out there about a banner year of wall to wall winter cold and storms. Yeah....nope... This is the SE not Minneapolis.

[Met1985]

at this rate the trough will stay positive tilt until it hits the atlantic.

#Models fail.

Lol the models really have been struggling in the recent weeks with storms.

[Cold Rain]

And here it is, the newly released Brickbot 2015 from EA Sports. Get yours fast while still in stock!

Haha! I told you the other day there were some cracks showing up in the armor. If we don't get at least one good snowstorm this winter, I'm afraid the Brickster will be incorrigible.

[franklin NCwx]

And if it doesn't happen, the mets will have to go back and figure out why. Almost all if them were.calling for it.

the nao is very hard to predict.

[Met1985]

People try to say that December in the SE isn't a month we get snow. Bollocks, we can and do get winter storms in December. The last two weeks of December are right up there with the first two weeks of March. We have started burning prime climo time IMO. That's fine and dandy if we cash in during Jan-Feb but we have essentially decided that it's ok to throw away December and push our chips into Jan-Feb. That is ok if it works out but in turn it leaves a smaller window of error if things don't go as planned. People should be on edge as the window to cash in shrinks by the day. JMO.

I think we are just know entering prime climo going into January. Yes it would be nice to have some decent events in December but I think we really start beating the hammer in January for cold and snow. We do have a short window especially the further south you go.

[Brick Tamland]

Feel free to put me om ignore if my realistic view of winter is too much for your weenie heart to handle. How's that pattern change been working out for you? Still waiting I see.... When I was telling you that it wasn't coming when you thought you did you called me a pessimist. That was me reading everything and coming to a conclusion, it happened to be correct. Yes, things look better for a pattern change than they did two weeks ago but reality is the change may not be what we need and want. I've said from November that I had high hopes for Jan-Feb that hasn't changed and my post that you quoted doesn't mean I feel any different than I did two months ago. All I am saying is that he stakes are higher and the window for error is shrinking by the day... All facts, not opinion. You bought into the hype that some folks were throwing out there about a banner year of wall to wall winter cold and storms. Yeah....nope... This is the SE not Minneapolis.

It wasn't hype. The mets calling for a big winter had plenty of facts and evidence to back it up. Maybe it doesn't work out. But your posting is so bipolar, and you contradict yourself all the time. You say you still have high hopes, but all your posts are about the pattern is not changing and we burned the whole month of December, and things need to change soon, etc. You should just go ahead and admit you were never bullish because you are just a pessimist for the sake of being a pessimist. It is really annoying.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

And coming into this winter all the important factors were supposed to be on our side for a big winter. There has never been as much consensus from mets saying this since these boards have been around. Almost all that posted here called for above average snow. If it doesn't end up that way, a lot of mets are going to be wondering what it really takes for a big winter here and why it didn't happen if all the factors were supposed to be there.

Exactly. That's why meteorology is so much about making educated guesses when trying to make predictions. But even the best mets and best models are not able to accurately forecast very far ahead. This is where synoptics and analogues come in handy, but even those are only tools as patterns and specific weather events will never unfold the same way twice. I am learning that I have to take seasonal forecasts as simply an interpretation of what could happen rather than a blueprint for what to expect. Though I obviously already knew that they weren't meant for people to take as a lock ( noone can foretell the future of course) , I don't even think we can use them for expectations. More like something we can hope for based on the indices and factors at the time.

[Met1985]

Meh we are just entering into the most favorable time climo wise. I know everyone wants snow know and cold know but we must set back and watch how this pattern change plays out before we write winter off in December.

[Jon]

Banter in the disco thread is getting pretty annoying and winter just started today.