Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems like deeper the low..the colder. Gfs 1012 low not impressive GFS is the worst model in the galaxy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems like deeper the low..the colder. Gfs 1012 low not impressive Yeah absolutely. Warm and dry go hand-in-hand in this situation where we're relying on dynamical cooling to a great degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems like deeper the low..the colder. Gfs 1012 low not impressive well...yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 SREF is pretty warm at the SFC for much of the event. The SREF 1000-500 mb thickness chart places the 5400 line at or east of DC at 21Z, much like the operational NAM. And yeah, the 2 meter freezing line is north of the M-D line until after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 UKMET has ~35mm of precip... waiting to see how much is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The SREF 1000-500 mb thickness chart places the 5400 line at or east of DC at 21Z, much like the operational NAM. And yeah, the 2 meter freezing line is north of the M-D line until after sunset. All SREF does is lead snow forecasts to bust. Only worth talking about when snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 what's the surface look like Bob? I don't have pay access to detailed panels but I can extrapolate ripping snow and 34*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 UKMET is magical Preach it Brother!!! BTW, do you have access to more than just precip maps and low pressure locations? Stuff like ground temp, soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Preach it Brother!!! BTW, do you have access to more than just precip maps and low pressure locations? Stuff like ground temp, soundings? 850s were fine for mostly everyone... waiting on 2mT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 how am i at warning with 1-3 inches?Sterling wants to confuse people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't have pay access to detailed panels but I can extrapolate ripping snow and 34*. 850 temps never get colder than -1C between 12Z and 18Z per these 2 maps, which gives little faith http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h30&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h30&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sterling wants to confuse people. Good thing the public doesn't know what a Winter Storm is, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 850 temps never get colder than -1C between 12Z and 18Z per these 2 maps, which gives little faith http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h30&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h30&cu=latest Yes, but most of the models runs that had us in snow have 850s ~-2... so not a big prob IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yes, but most of the models runs that had us in snow have 850s ~-2... so not a big prob IMO it's because most of the other models got us down to -2C that it gives me little faith because I figure the whole column would be warmer as opposed to colder below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 850 temps never get colder than -1C between 12Z and 18Z per these 2 maps, which gives little faith http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h30&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h30&cu=latest Oc line is way down in S MD @ 18z. Straddles 95 @ 12z. 850's are a few notches down the list of things to worry about with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Oc line is way down in S MD @ 18z. Straddles 95 @ 12z. 850's are a few notches down the list of things to worry about with this one. see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sterling wants to confuse people. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I think sterling wants people to consider there travel plan more seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How so? It's clear when you read it but most people just look and see that their county is in the pink...assuming they know where their county is...sad how many people who don't know where they live on a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm lowering the bar as long as I can drive w/in 30 minutes of mby to see accumulated snow, I'll be happy There is nothing like a snow chase to Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 It's clear when you read it but most people just look and see that their county is in the pink...assuming they know where their county is...sad how many people who don't know where they live on a map We will transition to new zone forecasts in early December. The new zones will highlight elevations. For example... Loudoun, Montgomery and Howard will be split to account for higher elevations. Instead of earning for all of the county during a marginal case such as this...only high terrain will see pink. The accumulating snow for this storm is largely elevation dependent. We have been communicating that for several days. It is written within the warning text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There is nothing like a snow chase to Columbia.Columbia, PA the way it's looking now Herb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Isn't an event like this something that won't affect the roads much? It could snow 4-6" and really not impact travel at all (in theory, since a snowflake around here impacts travel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We will transition to new zone forecasts in early December. The new zones will highlight elevations. For example... Loudoun, Montgomery and Howard will be split to account for higher elevations. Instead of earning for all of the county during a marginal case such as this...only high terrain will see pink. The accumulating snow for this storm is largely elevation dependent. We have been communicating that for several days. It is written within the warning text. I'm clear....my kids love that western Loudoun is part of our school closing decision process lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We will transition to new zone forecasts in early December. The new zones will highlight elevations. For example... Loudoun, Montgomery and Howard will be split to account for higher elevations. Instead of earning for all of the county during a marginal case such as this...only high terrain will see pink. The accumulating snow for this storm is largely elevation dependent. We have been communicating that for several days. It is written within the warning text. Discussion of new zones for those interested: http://www.weather.gov/lwx/ZoneSplits2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Isn't an event like this something that won't affect the roads much? It could snow 4-6" and really not impact travel at all (in theory, since a snowflake around here impacts travel) Roads within the warned area will certainly be impacted...higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There is nothing like a snow chase to Columbia. You think we're going to accumulate, that's cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You think we're going to accumulate, that's cute. [pseudo-zwyts]Well, it is in my backyard, but I can't speak for Jessup. That's like 100 miles away for me [/pseudo-zwyts] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 There is nothing like a snow chase to Columbia. Perfect. I can just walk across the street into Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 You think we're going to accumulate, that's cute. No, I don't think that (at least nothing appreciable before late afternoon, if then). But if he wants to just see it snow some .... I do think flakes will be in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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