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Thanksgiving Eve Coastal Part Deux


DDweatherman

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0.6" has fallen by 8am (13z).  Temps just dropped below freezing at 950mb.  Dewpoints still around 35.

Has anyone else noticed that dew point temperatures this morning are lower than what the 0Z GFS/NAM MOS had for not only 12z this morning and lower than most of today for a number of areas?  Just curious if the models are possibly keeping temperatures slightly warmer by having those dew points too high.

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Verbatim, 12z NAM probably has some sleet for many of us around 12z with a warm layer around 700-650mb.  Then it goes to snow.  Probably the coldest model run I've seen yet for the entire column.  Too bad it's the NAM.  

personally, I don't care if it's the NAM, the worst of them all, but it shows a trend that was also reflected on the 6z RGEM

so in that regard, whether I believe the NAM verbatim, it shows a glimmer of hope that the next 18-24 hrs. will trend colder after most models warmed the preceding 24 hrs.

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personally, I don't care if it's the NAM, the worst of them all, but it shows a trend that was also reflected on the 6z RGEM

so in that regard, whether I believe the NAM verbatim, it shows a glimmer of hope that the next 18-24 hrs. will trend colder after most models warmed the preceding 24 hrs.

12z NAM has surface temps right at freezing it looks like by about 15z except probably for the immediate downtown spots.  Hope it's right, but not holding my breath.  IF temps are that cold, then we'd be looking at a widespread warning criteria event.  

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If gfs/euro tick better on temps there's going to be a lot of weenie backpedaling. I may bump a few just for some cheap thrills.

My personal over/under is 4" but I may need to measure hourly to get there.

 

Regardless of accumulations. If the NAM is right. It is going to be nice to see almost one inch per hour rates for 4 or 5 hours.

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Isn'ttemp profiles one of the things the NAM is supposed to be good at?  Figured I'd ask you because you use it sometimes in your severe discussions.

I think the NAM becomes more useful from here out. 24 hours out it should in theory have a decent handle on the lower levels.  The cooling makes sense. I'd expect that a theme of the day.

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