CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Weeklies are in. Winter is saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This run hit N ME pretty well at the last minute. It's still blowing up that clipper system <1000mb through James Bay. Maybe a little overzealous on the WAA ahead of that? Good trend at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino-update-it-is-here-now-and-is-impacting-circulation-but-dont-cancel-off-winter-just-yet/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS is still too progressive with the northern stream shortwave at hour 104. Guess is that it falls in line after the 00z run tonight into the Saturday timeframe when the northern stream wave gets sampled. Southern stream shortwave over the southwestern US is stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I suspect this area would do well on the EC--probably some taint as it is, but lots of time. Of course, I'll be experiencing it vicariously from the prairie. I think the the odds that I can convince my wife to take 6-hour measurements are about strong as a NAM run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I agree Dendrite, baby steps on this run, tries to get arctic jet energy involved and that enhances the vorticity within the parent shortwave which rumbles north of the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I suspect this area would do well on the EC--probably some taint as it is, but lots of time. Of course, I'll be experiencing it vicariously from the prairie. I think the the odds that I can convince my wife to take 6-hour measurements are about strong as a NAM run.. You don't come anywhere near taint on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The phase happens too late on the GFS, I think the 00z will show a better scenario given that this run of the GFS was much closer than the past few days of runs to a major coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Weeklies are in. Winter is saved. What do they show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 What do they show? Big ridge into western US and esp NE Canada and ern US trough. Still +NAO though, but highter heights also near N pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Seems like forever since we've had a -NAO....but good news on the weeklies for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS got interested thats all we want to see right now is its on all the guidance details to be worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS got interested thats all we want to see right now is its on all the guidance details to be worked out Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 We awoke to a turd and have dinner with a new toity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hopefully not cold and storm-less but definitely a nice look toward the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The GFS op is really the only model that does not have some sort of a well formed low. Its own ensembles even have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This run hit N ME pretty well at the last minute. It's still blowing up that clipper system <1000mb through James Bay. Maybe a little overzealous on the WAA ahead of that? Good trend at least. Yeah still way too dominant with that northern stream...but it at least has the southern stream showing up to the party now. Better than not showing up at all. It's almost worthless at this point to be looking at the GFS until this gets closer. It has been dominated in the D5 range so far this cold season by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Ginx should hit the Canadian Rockies. Feet upon feet of snow in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah still way too dominant with that northern stream...but it at least has the southern stream showing up to the party now. Better than not showing up at all. It's almost worthless at this point to be looking at the GFS until this gets closer. It has been dominated in the D5 range so far this cold season by the Euro. Objection: the season has not been and will continue to not be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah still way too dominant with that northern stream...but it at least has the southern stream showing up to the party now. Better than not showing up at all. It's almost worthless at this point to be looking at the GFS until this gets closer. It has been dominated in the D5 range so far this cold season by the Euro. We just need the EURO to pull east a tad, maybe to the benchmark for a nice coastal storm, it even has a jet worth up to 70knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We just need the EURO to pull east a tad, maybe to the benchmark for a nice coastal storm, it even has a jet worth up to 70knots. You. You're outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Big ridge into western US and esp NE Canada and ern US trough. Still +NAO though, but highter heights also near N pole. Which week# are you talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Which week# are you talking? 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 ec.jpg If that ever verified, I'd swan dive into the Shawsheen river with a granite weenie pad locked to my foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 We just need the EURO to pull east a tad, maybe to the benchmark for a nice coastal storm, it even has a jet worth up to 70knots.I am glad you are back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 If this is gonna happen, the GFS will catch on fully by later Saturday or certainly on Sunday. Then it will be increasingly useful. It might even fight the Euro to a draw sometimes in the final 24 hours. GFS is still too progressive with the northern stream shortwave at hour 104. Guess is that it falls in line after the 00z run tonight into the Saturday timeframe when the northern stream wave gets sampled. Southern stream shortwave over the southwestern US is stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 If this is gonna happen, the GFS will catch on fully by later Saturday or certainly on Sunday. Then it will be increasingly useful. It might even fight the Euro to a draw sometimes in the final 24 hours. I think by 0z tonight you will see more steps towards the Euro as we did with 18z just now. And yes, I beelieve it will be on board by Satuday if this is a real potential...which it seems to be headed in that general direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It sort of depends on how far east you are talking... Rte 2 in Concord, MA would not seem to be CNE North of rt 2 and west of 495 is cne, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Cut that Weatherbell heavy snow swath in half and and the northwest half might be fairly realistic (assuming the underlying model depiction). They use a straight 10-1 ratio. But the half of the map where mid and upper levels get polluted with some >0 and even low level temps are a challenge ...will be pretty unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.