SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Are the gefs pattern better looking than what we're seeing at the end of the op runs? I'm not impressed with the cold I' m seeing north of us at the end of these op runs. Example: 18z gfs has -10c at 850 as being the coldest in Canada which is lame imo. I'd like to br seeing between -20 anf -30 up there. Not exactly, it'll take awhile to clean up the damage done in Canada but we will be on our way if we get the -EPO +PNA and -AO at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 What happens is that the ridging develops in the PNA region of western Canada and then retros a bit to setup a more -EPO it seems down the road. Canada will get cold. Not worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Not exactly, it'll take awhile to clean up the damage done in Canada but we will be on our way if we get the -EPO +PNA and -AO at least What happens is that the ridging develops in the PNA region of western Canada and then retros a bit to setup a more -EPO it seems down the road. Canada will get cold. Not worried about that. Good news. So sounds like the cold eventually wobbles back on this side of the planet, which the week 4 Euro weeklies showed the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Think it's gonna be coldest night of the season in season so far. Already down to 20.5 with a dew of 8. Sneaky high pressure 12F is my low to beat. 19/8 atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hey Hagupit is finally forecasted to recurve....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Boy it's a hell of a wind chill here. Wind is cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hey Hagupit is finally forecasted to recurve....... GFS fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hey Hagupit is finally forecasted to recurve....... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It feels like single digits here in Northern RI and was freezing all day BBBUUUUTTTT - We just had 2 days of Pouring Rain and have days of Pouring Rain ahead of us. Only the worst winters ever can pull this off. Lots of Rain to single digits to Lots of Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It feels like single digits here in Northern RI and was freezing all day BBBUUUUTTTT - We just had 2 days of Pouring Rain and have days of Pouring Rain ahead of us. Only the worst winters ever can pull this off. Lots of Rain to single digits to Lots of Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Until this winter gets to at least 50% of as good as what everyone predicted you're going to be tagging me with Many accordions. And that includes a 15" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Cory = huge weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 11/10. Coldest of season this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There are signs of a storm before Christmas, but again we may be dealing with a marginal airmass. Looks like any real change comes at that time or more likely after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Some light OES flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There are signs of a storm before Christmas, but again we may be dealing with a marginal airmass. Looks like any real change comes at that time or more likely after Christmas. Ive been watching that 18-20 time period for an EC storm out of the GOM. Airmass may be marginal but it looks promising and with the +PNA coupled with maybe getting a 50/50 block its not out of the question IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There are signs of a storm before Christmas, but again we may be dealing with a marginal airmass. Looks like any real change comes at that time or more likely after Christmas. Another Miller A with a prayer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Another Miller A with a prayer? Might be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hmmm... Warm air mass vs. cold air mass = interesting. Who'd a thunk it. It's still thread the needle, many more ways to go wrong than right, but there is some potential in this pattern. I don't know who anyone else is trying to fool, but it's the chase that really matters. I foresee at least a couple trackable disappointments in the next two weeks. I hate you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Again, this was never a torch pattern, but a lousy stretch. i never thought this week was...(though certainly thought warmer than the cut-off will allow) but figured next week would be pretty toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 i never thought this week was...(though certainly thought warmer than the cut-off will allow) but figured next week would be pretty toasty. Yeah I definitely thought we'd get 2-4 pretty warm days at minimum once this thing got out of here. Getting mild ridging right over the top is a torch pattern for us. But this ULL spinning there for days doesn't allow the midwest/plains ridging to really amplify into our area...kind of gets flattened out, so we get spared for the most part. It didn't really look like that 3-5 days ago. We'll still probably have some above average days, but just not as warm as it could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah I definitely thought we'd get 2-4 pretty warm days at minimum once this thing got out of here. Getting mild ridging right over the top is a torch pattern for us. But this ULL spinning there for days doesn't allow the midwest/plains ridging to really amplify into our area...kind of gets flattened out, so we get spared for the most part. It didn't really look like that 3-5 days ago. We'll still probably have some above average days, but just not as warm as it could have been. yeah exactly. that was my thought as well. i think it may still end up AN (obviously averages are dropping quick now) but those massive + departures to the west look like they don't ever get to roll over the top and get into NE - at least not for more than a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 i never thought this week was...(though certainly thought warmer than the cut-off will allow) but figured next week would be pretty toasty. Yeah I didn't mean we wouldn't see any warm weather, but maybe 2-3 warm days. I still wouldn't qualify that as a torch pattern I guess. Too much HP overhead. What aggravated me was how lousy it was. Big highs but just no cold air. That's what I was basically touting. A real lousy stretch. We'll see how it all breaks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Double digits departure day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Cory = huge weenie There's a reason everyone from Paul Kocin to TJ Del Santo will tell you I deserve tge "The Snowman" name. I've worked at it for a while lol. And it is snowing those little balls right now. What are they called anyway? It's like it's so cold that they can't be flakes but it isn't sleet obviously. Is like Snow Sleet or Sleety Snow. Can not believe how cold or continues to be and Mega train is inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Anything encouraging on today's 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There's a reason everyone from Paul Kocin to TJ Del Santo will tell you I deserve tge "The Snowman" name. I've worked at it for a while lol. And it is snowing those little balls right now. What are they called anyway? It's like it's so cold that they can't be flakes but it isn't sleet obviously. Is like Snow Sleet or Sleety Snow. Can not believe how cold or continues to be and Mega train is inbound. Probably snow grains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's rather strange the index's didn't update on a site I was using. Anyone have the NAO 14 day index chart?. Also, is the major pattern change still going to happen?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There's a cool bowling ball feature being advertised between the 15-18th in the guidance. Will have to keep an eye on it to see if it can turn up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GGEM ensembles please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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