Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GGEM ensembles please. new euro ens look pretty good too...just takes a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 new euro ens look pretty good too...just takes a bit longer Yes. It's coming I think. Seems rather stormy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yes. It's coming I think. Seems rather stormy too. Euro ensembles look to be right around Christmas. These signals have been consistent for days...I tnink the change is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro still interesting with storm 2 Fri nite/ Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There are signals for a storm sometime near Christmas. Chances for snow as well to the coast, depends on degree of northern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 AO is near neutral in this period after the 16th of DEC, and is positive a little time after that, but PNA returns from near neutral to 1sd in the positive domain. NAO is also near neutral. Chances are as domain changes occur, you can get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro ensembles look to be right around Christmas. These signals have been consistent for days...I tnink the change is coming. White xmas storm. Seriously. I've liked that idea for a couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 White xmas storm. Seriously. I've liked that idea for a couple of months. You've liked the idea of a snowstorm occurring on a specific day for a couple of months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 15-18th looks more favorable now, 18z GFS shows a northern stream, some degree of arctic injection of energy, but mainly northern stream bowling ball Manitoba Mauler type of disturbance diving into MN, now we watch the rest of the model run to unfold to see what the model is seeing in this period, 7-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 18z GFS would be an epic way to ruin Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah the trough didn't really evolve in the 8-10 day timeframe like I thought it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The 18z GFS would be an epic way to ruin Christmas. Nothing says Merry Christmas weather-lovers in SNE, like two systems in the 5 days prior to X-Mas taking perfect tracks south of New England and both being rainers anyway. Tip would have a field day with the cruelty of the universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The pattern still shows signs of getting pushed back a bit with the ensembles slowly pushing things back and the weeklies kind of doing the same. I think it will get there, but it slowly takes time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Para grids are available again. To bad it doesn't change what is modeled to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The pattern still shows signs of getting pushed back a bit with the ensembles slowly pushing things back and the weeklies kind of doing the same. I think it will get there, but it slowly takes time.What do you think chances of white Xmas is based on pattern? Just a number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 You've liked the idea of a snowstorm occurring on a specific day for a couple of months? A month, anyway.....that has always appeared to be the time of transition, which often concedes with optimal storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 What do you think chances of white Xmas is based on pattern? Just a number Somewhere between 5 and 25 percent? Depending on how close to the coast you are. 25% well inland, 5% on the coast. Unless, of course, the fabled pattern change occurs earlier or a surprise anti-Grinch storm develops within this dull, mild pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Somewhere between 5 and 25 percent? Depending on how close to the coast you are. 25% well inland, 5% on the coast. Unless, of course, the fabled pattern change occurs earlier or a surprise anti-Grinch storm develops within this dull, mild pattern The 5% on the coast is under climo significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 5% on the coast is under climo significantly. ...just a weeee bit pessimistic there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 5% on the coast is under climo significantly.I believe BOS climo is about 25 percent. ORH climo closer to 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro wants to keep it interesting right into Saturday with that 2nd low. it just won't give up that idea. Lots of instability bands of snow and snow showers around from Wed nite onwards..maybe mixed rain in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Somewhere between 5 and 25 percent? Depending on how close to the coast you are. 25% well inland, 5% on the coast. Unless, of course, the fabled pattern change occurs earlier or a surprise anti-Grinch storm develops within this dull, mild pattern For the most part I agree with your percentages. I'd go slightly higher well inland. This morning I did a quick check online and it appears that next week doesn't offer a good chance for snow so that basically means we are going to need a storm during Xmas week. I've disliked the pattern all fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If the long range is right, the chances are there for a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If the long range is right, the chances are there for a white Christmas. Looks like a couple systems moving to our south starting middle of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 If the long range is right, the chances are there for a white Christmas.Threat for a Xmas storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Ponder this folks: Through 12/8 in a crap pattern: BOS: -1.3 ORH: -1.7 PVD: +0.4 BDL: -0.6 Gradient pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Ponder this folks: Through 12/8 in a crap pattern: BOS: -1.3 ORH: -1.7 PVD: +0.4 BDL: -0.6 Gradient pattern? With solid BN thru at least Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 With solid BN thru at least Saturday Euro is damned cold next week for a few days after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro is damned cold next week for a few days after Monday. You really have to wonder(if Euro is correct) with lingering the ULL around thru the weekend..if we ever really have anything much above normal? Looks like a storm middle of next week too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro is damned cold next week for a few days after Monday. Yes. Same sentiment up here. I am pretty sure we are below normal for the month. We have had 18 inches of snow and might grab a few today. I thought next week was going to warm up for a few days, but no? Thought cold air was more after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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