jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 17-18th storm system GFS, GFS ensemble mean, EURO ensemble mean, GGEM, GGEM ensemble mean all show a storm while the EURO operational does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm writing a weenie's winter dream scenario on a short story. Its a larger part of my upcoming book I'm writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm writing a weenie's winter dream scenario on a short story. Its a larger part of my upcoming book I'm writing.Maybe you and Tip can collaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Maybe you and Tip can collaborate? That would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Euro looks kind of meh going forward. Pattern change being delayed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 EURO might look meh, but GFS is liking this shortwave near hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 18z GFS shows a strong southern stream system with a strong northern stream closed low moving through the flow, 1003mb low too far inland for coastal snows, but the interior does pretty well, although its the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 18z GFS shows a strong southern stream system with a strong northern stream closed low moving through the flow, 1003mb low too far inland for coastal snows, but the interior does pretty well, although its the 18z GFS.Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 18z GFS parallel showed a 985mb bomb SE of the Benchmark and showing cold air arriving in time for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 00z EURO on board now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 I think serious winter waits until near NYD. However we will get some chances. Euro continues theme of pretty cold wx in the 6-10 period but the changes of a more sustainable pattern seem to stay in the 11-15 as they've been for about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro def. interesting middle of next week as that goes out south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I think serious winter waits until near NYD. However we will get some chances. Euro continues theme of pretty cold wx in the 6-10 period but the changes of a more sustainable pattern seem to stay in the 11-15 as they've been for about a week. I'm not sold on anything really at the moment. It keeps getting pushed back and I don't like to see heights near the Bering Sea so low. Yes the amplitude of the ridge in NW Canada is getting better..but it keeps getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm not sold on anything really at the moment. It keeps getting pushed back and I don't like to see heights near the Bering Sea so low. Yes the amplitude of the ridge in NW Canada is getting better..but it keeps getting pushed back. We may have to do this 2004-05 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm not sold on anything really at the moment. It keeps getting pushed back and I don't like to see heights near the Bering Sea so low. Yes the amplitude of the ridge in NW Canada is getting better..but it keeps getting pushed back. That's a big change of tune from a few days ago for sure. This pattern change may be so gradual it took take weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 We may have to do this 2004-05 style. I'm sure my statement will get misinterpreted for saying no snow, but get this to day 10 and we'll talk. That being said, there are a couple of chances coming in over the next two weeks. The models could be correct..maybe it gets established near Christmas, but I've seen this story before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm sure my statement will get misinterpreted for saying no snow, but get this to day 10 and we'll talk. That being said, there are a couple of chances coming in over the next two weeks. The models could be correct..maybe it gets established near Christmas, but I've seen this story before. Well ironically it appears there are some snow chances so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm sure my statement will get misinterpreted for saying no snow, but get this to day 10 and we'll talk. That being said, there are a couple of chances coming in over the next two weeks. The models could be correct..maybe it gets established near Christmas, but I've seen this story before. Winter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Winter cancel? Lol, no but this seems like a classic period of patience coming up. Then again, nobody will care if we get snow. I'm referring to a more stable wintry pattern. We can always pull stuff in a not so favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Then again, nobody will care if we get snow. Ding ding, you get to pick out one of the large stuffed animals as your prize. I'm referring to a more stable wintry pattern. Then again, nobody will care if we get two Outer Cape / ocean storms, followed by a cutter, followed by two monsters that crush DC to NYC, followed by another cutter, in a more stable wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Ding ding, you get to pick out one of the large stuffed animals as your prize. Then again, nobody will care if we get two Outer Cape / ocean storms, followed by a cutter, followed by two monsters that crush DC to NYC, followed by another cutter, in a more stable wintry pattern. Well those are unforeseen nuances. I'm looking at the whole hemispheric pattern. Also , the strat vortex is doing a bend, don't break thing. That's not giving up easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well those are unforeseen nuances. I'm looking at the whole hemispheric pattern. Also , the strat vortex is doing a bend, don't break thing. That's not giving up easily.Meteorology, not psychology lol.Sometimes ignorance is bliss with these things. The GFS has a snow map output, it tells you right there how much snow you are going to get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Winter cancel? After the next 10 days, if nothing works out we can look forward to the next 10 days...if nothing, then the next 10...rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm sure my statement will get misinterpreted for saying no snow, but get this to day 10 and we'll talk. That being said, there are a couple of chances coming in over the next two weeks. The models could be correct..maybe it gets established near Christmas, but I've seen this story before. I think there are a couple of chances for snow as well in the next couple of weeks, which is all that most people truly care about; but I do agree that the sustainable pattern change will probably wait until the Christmas-NYD period. I could see us going like 1 for 3 or 1 for 4 or something with these threats over the next couple of weeks...the pattern is okay enough for that...and if we do get the one hit, it could be exciting with the split flow and moisture feed (one gets timed right with a pseudo rex-block and we get snow, one misses, one or two are rainy)... then a more sustainable pattern for cold and snow sets in after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 After the next 10 days, if nothing works out we can look forward to the next 10 days...if nothing, then the next 10...rinse and repeat. First 10 days of December,below normal temps for the Northeast..NOBODY forecast that 2 weeks ago..Trying to figure out how LR forecasting has become an exact science..we still have a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I think there are a couple of chances for snow as well in the next couple of weeks, which is all that most people truly care about; but I do agree that the sustainable pattern change will probably wait until the Christmas-NYD period. I could see us going like 1 for 3 or 1 for 4 or something with these threats over the next couple of weeks...the pattern is okay enough for that...and if we do get the one hit, it could be exciting with the split flow and moisture feed (one gets timed right with a pseudo rex-block and we get snow, one misses, one or two are rainy)... then a more sustainable pattern for cold and snow sets in after that. I could see that as well. We've been managing well with HP nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Still interested in the bowling ball storm around the 17th-18th. Not sure how much moisture is available to play with, but last night's runs looked better than the ones from a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I could see that as well. We've been managing well with HP nearby. So you think Dec comes in AN or BN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 We have some chances for sure. Dont like seeing it continually pushed back though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 interesting watching the ensembles from day 10-15 the last few days. day 15 always looks good...just never seems to get much closer than that. area of very low heights near/west of the Aleutians just keeps pulsing back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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